This is the 3rd consecutive poll taken over the last week that has McCain in a small lead of somewhere between 3-6 points. Though I dismissed the SUSA (because of overweighting of Republicans and results showing 16% of African Americans voting for McCain) and FL Chamber of Commerce polls (who are those guys)?, I do not dismiss this poll.
[more below the fold]
The last PPP poll had Obama +2. According to the write-up, the shift is primarily among elderly women who voted for Hillary Clinton. Obama actually leads among men but is behind among women. The McCain campaign showed a pulse last week, and that might have resonated with voters in his best demographic (65 and over).
The other thing that happened (in my view) is that it became clear that Obama is not likely to pick Hillary as his VP, which depressed the spirits of many eagerly hoping for the Dream Ticket.
I believe Obama can and should win Florida with or without Clinton. I think the election climate, past strong performance by the last 3 Democratic nominees for President (Clinton's win in 1996, Gore's win in 2000 (taken away from us by the Supreme Court) and Kerry's relatively narrow defeat (under 5 points I believe)), shows that Dems can get 48% on election day with reasonable effort. Other trends, including more votes from African Americans, non-cuban hispanics, cuban americans, young voters and independents who hate the Bush Administration should also portend well for Obama.
However, I have been of the opinion that this party should put its best team on the field and rack up the biggest possible victory. Why play only for 270 electoral votes, when 400 EVs are within your grasp? That team is Obama-Clinton. There can be little doubt that Clinton would help shore up Obama’s weaknesses and eat into McCain’s best demographic with relative ease. She would make a difference in Florida, Arkansas, Missouri (where Obama is currently behind), North Carolina (where she did very well in rural NC and where Obama is behind) and Appalachia (Southeast Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia). Clinton would also help expand the map into Louisiana (a state Bill carried twice), and Texas. In the west, Clinton would nail down Nevada (which is why Obama is sending her there), and guarantee victory in New Mexico.
I have heard and read many arguments against the Dream Ticket, but none that substantively challenges the notion that Clinton would in fact expand the map significantly and, because of the constituencies to which she has the strongest appeal, impair McCain’s ability to reach the margins he needs in regions and demos that he is competitive. If McCain can’t hit his margins, he can’t win. President-Elect Obama can have a Reagan sized mandate with her on the ticket. That's how you bring about change -- with a mandate from the people.
As far as the message of change is concerned, if you hadn’t noticed Obama has pretty much dispensed with those distinctions and has adopted a lot of ideas and rhetoric from Hillary’s campaign. They are in sync on almost all the issues that matter today. She isn’t part of the problem in DC. She has only been a Senator for 8 years. As First Lady, she was made the target by the entrenched interests that Obama is fighting against.
Looking at Chuck Todd’s electoral map analysis yesterday, despite how well Obama is doing, McCain is within striking distance if a couple of breaks go his way. It shouldn’t be that close, and it won’t be if Hillary is on the ticket.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...