Details, details, details...It's always the details that come back to bite you in the ass.
In this topsy-turvy election season, it seems that no one can predict which states will actually swing which way. Oh, there are some old stand-bys - Texas will go for McCain and New York will go for Obama. But in the rush for big states, the smaller prizes too often get overlooked - and just ask Hillary Clinton how important they can be. With only five electoral votes, it's easy to forget New Mexico.
In 2004, George Bush won the state by four thousand votes. In 2000, Al Gore won by only three hundred. In 1996, Clinton took the state with a 41,000 vote margin - with Perot adding thirty-two thousand votes to the margin. In 1992, Clinton's margin was forty-nine thousands - with Perot taking ninety-one thousand votes. Yeah, I know a lot of people will say that there's no way to predict who Perot's people would have voted for - except that the downticket races say they were voting Republican. Especially in the southeastern corner of the Second District (also called the "Southern District).
I've excerpted parts of Heath Haussamen's discussion on the Southern District's importance at my own site, but I'd like to take the time to lay out a case for Kossacks to throw their support behind Harry Teague, and help lock down a victory in New Mexico.
First, a bit about the district, via Haussamen:
The district’s geography adds to its unusual nature. It’s the eighth largest in the nation — bigger than the state of Pennsylvania — yet it contains no media market. Most counties in the district get their television from Albuquerque, located just outside the district’s northern boundary, but Doña Ana, the most populous county, gets its television from El Paso, located just outside the district’s southern boundary. Some 30 percent of the district’s registered voters live in Doña Ana County.
The southeastern part of the state/district also get their news from Lubbock and Midland/Odessa - which is one of the reasons why it's called "Little Texas". So to cover the district, Teague has to buy slots in Lubbock, Midland, El Paso, and Albuquerque. Plus a couple dozen little newspapers and radios stations. It's big and it's a difficult place to get out a message.
To continue the electoral math stuff, we return to Haussamen's analysis:
Those conservative Democrats who have a history of voting for Republicans will decide who wins the 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley. Were the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce to get interesting — Udall is currently way ahead of Pearce – those Democrats would be a major factor. And those Democrats — who gave Hillary Clinton the win in New Mexico’s Feb. 5 caucus — will probably be the deciding factor in whether Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain wins New Mexico in the presidential race.
The Senate race is of particular interest in the Second District because Steve Pearce, the Republican candidate, is the current seat-holder for the District's House seat. That means he would be favored to have a strong showing. When you factor in weak support for Obama in the area, you have two strikes at the top of the ballot. They aren't impossible to overcome - I think Obama will show stronger here than he polls and Udall is well-liked throughout the state. But hoping for coattails in never a strong strategy.
That brings us to the actual candidate, and his opponent. Democrats nominated Harry Teague. Harry's life should be made into a movie to show what a great country this really is. Until his family moved to Hobbs when he was nine, he had never seen running water. At 17, he dropped out of school and went to work in the oilfields for $1.50 an hour. Eventually, he started his own oil service company and employs more than two hundred and fifty people - all of which are paid a living wage, have health benefits, and have access to a company funded tuition program for themselves and their dependents. Harry is pro-environment, calling for a "Apollo project" for energy independence that would focus heavily on solar and wind power. He wants to see universal health coverage put in place and get our troops out of Iraq. And he has shown that he has cross-over appeal - he is the only Democrat serving as a Lea County Commissioner, and was chosen by his Republican colleagues to serve as the Chair of the Commission.
In the other corner is Ed Tinsley. Tinsley is a restauranteur who owns KBOBs Steakhouse and Schlotskey's Sandwiches. He has built a fortune off of paying sub-minimum wages to his employees and has fought the living wage movement tooth-and-nail. His benefits program is based on tips reported by his employees - so that they are subjected to increased tax just to get beneefits. Oh, and he has testified before Congress that they should not be allowed to use their company-funded benefits account even if it is needed to save their child's life. Really, I couldn't have made that up if I tried.
One other thing about this district, via Haussamen, again:
The district’s oil giants make up a powerful lobby that feeds the New Mexico economy and has a great deal of influence in Washington. The Republican-friendly Yates family of the 2nd District controlled a quarter of all federal lands leased for oil and gas development in the continental United States in 2004, according to The Associated Press.
When the new Congress sits down to hammer out the legislative language of President Obama's energy policy, the representative from this district will be on that committee. You have a choice of helping put someone who has made their living in the oil fields and wants to move to wind and solar power (Teague), or a "pro-business" mouthpiece who believe that the only reason we have high gas prices is that the EPA is holding oil companies hostage (Tinsley). Still think this race has nothing to do with you? It has everything to do with you.
Harry Teague may not be the most liberal Democrat you'll ever meet, but he's a Democrat and he is, by far, the better choice in this district. If we can put the Second District in Democratic hands, then we put another Democrat in the Senate (Udall), and we put the state in the Obama column. I'm not asking you to break your bank - just give $5 to Harry and tell five other people how important this district is. Give five and tell five. It's simple.
This is the fifty state strategy, put into practice. This is the "every Democrat in every district" plan. But it needs your help. The Obama warhorse is ready to ride to victory, but we have to put that final nail in the horse's shoe. Please give.