I am sick and tired of hearing the media whip themselves into a frenzy about how Obama should be "much further ahead" and asking why he's basically not 20 points ahead of McCain at this point in the game. It esp. makes me want to vom when I see comments on articles (not at DKos, more at places like CNN or Politico or other random places around the web) crowing about Obama's "lack of lead" and that's why either 1. Hillary should have won or 2. McCain will win.
Let's take a look at some past elections (numbers taken from USelectionatlas.org):
2004
Bush: 50.73% Popular Vote (62,040,610); 286 EV (53.2%)
Kerry: 48.27% (59,028,439) PV; 251 EV (46.7%)
Difference: 2.46% PV; 35 EV
2000
Bush: 47.87%% (50,460,110); 271 EV (50.4)
Gore: 48.38% (51,003,926); 266 EV (49.4)
Difference: .51% PV; 5 EV
1996
Clinton: 49.23% (47,400,125) PV; 379 EV (70.4%)
Dole: 40.72% (39,198,755) PV; 159 29.6%
Difference: 8.51% PV; 220 EV
1992
Clinton: 43.01% (44,909,806) PV; 370 EV (68.8%)
Bush: 37.45 (39, 104,550) PV; 168 EV (31.2%)
Difference: 5.56% PV; 202 EV
Other, less detailed results:
- Carter wins by 2.1% PV; 57 EV
- Nixon wins by .07% PV; 110 EV
So as you can see, even the tiniest lead in the popular vote can translate to big leads in the electoral vote. Now let's look at 2008.
According to RealClearPolitics.com, the current electoral count is:
Obama (strong + leaning): 238
McCain (strong + leaning): 163
Toss-Up: 137
Already Obama has a substantial lead in the electoral college, with only 32 EVs needed to clinch. Let's take a look at the tossup states.
Ohio (20) 46.0 45.5 Obama +0.5
Florida (27) 45.8 47.0 McCain +1.2
Virginia (13) 47.3 46.3 Obama +1.0
Michigan (17) 46.0 42.8 Obama +3.2
Missouri (11) 45.0 47.3 McCain +2.3
Colorado (9) 47.0 45.3 Obama +1.7
Nevada (5) 45.0 43.3 Obama +1.7
New Mexico (5) -- -- --
New Hampshire (4)44.7 43.3 Obama +1.4
Indiana (11) 47.0 46.5 Obama +0.5
North Carolina (15)43.3 47.0 McCain +3.7
So, given the toss-up states, it becomes
Obama: 322
McCain: 216
An overwhelming lead.
My point: Stop freaking out about national polls. If Obama wins all the states Kerry won, then a couple of the toss-up states (example: Virginia, Colorado, Michigan), McCain is done. This election is not nearly as close as the MSM would like us to believe. In fact, barring a major October surprise, I am 99.5% confident Obama will not only win in November, but he'll blow McCain out of the water. I've seen Obama's ground game, having canvassed in SC & NC and being a registered VA voter. I literally get about 3 emails/phone calls a week asking to volunteer for his VA campaign. There is no doubt in my mind that Obama's ground game is 25x more sophisticated than McSame's.
Update: A few have commented that the media did this same "omg, so close" routine in '96. I have to clarify that I'm (barely) 22, and while my first political memory is jumping up & down in the middle of the night when my dad told me Clinton won in 1992, I don't have any significant political memories until 2000. But thanks for the nice comments, esp. since this is my first diary.