If you've been wondering if Obama's and Dean's 50 State Strategy is working on the presidential level, here's some evidence that shows that perhaps it is. According to Josh Goodman at Governing.com's Ballot Box, Obama is polling ahead of John Kerry's 2004 electoral results in 41 states. McCain is doing better than Bush in just four states. You can find it here: For Now, Barack Obama Is Not Another John Kerry
With the Trad Media telling us, constantly, that the race is a "statistical tie," or asking "Why Obama isn't winning by more?", a review of the facts can be useful. And the facts suggest that, due to his own strengths as a candidate, McCain's weaknesses, and the national climate turning sour for the GOP, Obama is in a very strong position, running well ahead of Kerry's final numbers in 41 states. And of course, since Kerry made it close in a tougher climate, if Obama can hold the Kerry states and win a few more, he should win the election.
Using data from pollster.com, Goodman observes:
-The overall picture is very favorable for Obama. McCain is only running ahead of Bush's 2004 result in four states. Obama is doing at least 2.46 percentage points better than Kerry in 41 states. In 2004, 2.46 was Bush's margin of victory in the national popular vote.
Another way of thinking about this: If you take the 50 pollster.com figures and then weight them according to the populations of the states (a very crude way of extrapolating a national popular vote forecast from state polling), you end up with Obama 46.4%, McCain 41.6%. In other words, state polling is consistent with the recent Time, AP-Ipsos, and CBS polls that had Obama up by 5-6 points, not with the Gallup poll that gave McCain a four-point advantage. That also means that, nationally, Obama is running a little more than seven points ahead of Kerry.
Cool? It seems so to me.
According to Goodman, Obama is running 15+ ahead of Kerry in several states with limited AA population, for example ND, WY, ID, MT, HI, IN, AK, UT, TX and SD.
Obama is running 10+ or more ahead of Kerry in KS, OK, AL, NE, WI, MD, GA, VA, MS & CT
Over to Goodman:
States where Obama is running 5 points to 9.9 points ahead of Kerry:
North Carolina (9.73), South Carolina (9.58), Minnesota (9.02), New Mexico (8.99), Vermont (8.86), California (8.35), Iowa (7.17), Kentucky (7.06), Pennsylvania (6.6), Maine (6.5), Illinois (6.46), Colorado (6.37), New Jersey (5.92), Ohio (5.71).
Obviously, running 5.71 ahead of Kerry in Ohio makes that a leaner for Obama. MN at 9.02 ahead and PA, at 6.6 ahead, are almost out of reach for McCain, and Iowa at 7.17 makes that a pretty solid Obama pick. Meanwhile, NC at +9.73 puts it more or less within range. Then:
States where Obama is running fewer than 5 points ahead of Kerry:
New Hampshire (4.73), Washington (4.72), Missouri (4.4), Florida (3.91), New York (3.01), Rhode Island (2.95), Arkansas (2.66), Oregon (2.24), Michigan (1.98), Delaware (1.41), Louisiana (1.11), Arizona (0.07).
NH, a state Kerry barely won, is not quite solid at +4.73, but it's trending that way, and Florida and Missouri look to be in reach.
There are four states where Obama is running a little behind Kerry, but I don't see much to worry about with those. Anyway...
You can read the rest of the article if you follow the link. I won't try to analyze further--just wanted to get this data in front of you. My own rough impression is that we're partly dealing here with a change in the overall mood of the nation, which has distinctly negative on the GOP. We're also dealing with Obama's strengths as a candidate, particularly in the plains and mountain states and the west in general. And McCain's weaknesses enter in, too.
But the key takeaway is, that if we worry that Obama is some how like Kerry, it's not showing up in the current polls.