In an absolute stunner of a poll, a polling organization called Hays (I have no idea who these guys are, but perhaps some Alaskan Kossacks can educate) has released a poll showing Obama up +5 in Alaska. That's right.....deep Red Alaska.
Now since this is an unknown organization, I couldn't blame anyone for discounting the result. However, I became more curious about Obama's prospects in the state after Governor Palin seemed to go out of her way to praise Obama's energy plan, and provided no more than lip service to McCain. It puzzled me because Palin has been talked about as a VP candidate and some very conservative organizations have been pushing her hard to Camp McCain.
http://www.pollster.com/...
This poll might be confirmation that Alaska is indeed tight, and that many Republicans are crossing over to vote for Obama (including the Mayor of Fairbanks). Governors usually have their ear to the ground because they have to run statewide and have to appeal to all groups. The fact that Palin not only balked at an opportunity to praise McCain and attack Obama, but basically did the opposite is a sign of where the northeast, midwest, and west are headed. Sadly, the South still lags behind, as evidenced by Cokie Roberts' statement that Hawaii isn't really part of America. The rest of the country wants political and generational change. The national GOP embodies the politics that brought us war, deficits, energy crises, a rapidly deteriorating environment, a decline in our currency and a decline in our power. This election has been nationalized not partisanized (in the Rovian sense).
I also note that Rasmussen, with its weighted sample model, gave Obama a 5 point lead in Iowa and a 10 point lead in Oregon. (see pollster.com). The Oregon results are interesting in that it compares against a recent poll by SUSA which had Obama up +3. That tells us that SUSA's model is a more conservative leaning model that may well be out of step with the likely electorate in this particular election. I can't understand how SUSA gives McCain 15%-20% of the African American vote. I doubt McCain will get even 2% on election day.
Two weeks before the convention, Obama appears to have weathered the McCain ad storm, has formulated an ad strategy of his own, and if one looks at internals, seems to be tightening his grip on a lot of battleground states. So far, so good.