NC-Sen: The latest poll from SurveyUSA shows a very promising trend line for Democrat Kay Hagan, largely thanks to a nice assist by Libertarian candidate Christopher Cole. With June numbers in parentheses:
Dole (R) 46 (54)
Hagan (D) 41 (42)
Cole (L) 7 (-)
Swing State Project is pessimistic that Cole can keep up these numbers through the general election. Still, this poll was taken before Hagan's first ad started airing, so she appears to be in a pretty strong position going forward.
With Hagan's own ads and the DSCC ads currently on the air, this race is still looking very promising.
KY-Sen: SUSA's latest shows Mitch McConnell expanding his lead over Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, but there is a caveat. With June numbers in parentheses:
McConnell (R) 52 (50)
Lunsford (D) 40 (46)
Not a great trend for Lunsford, it would appear. However, via email, we learn that SUSA's partisan sample for this poll was 50% Democratic, 39% Republican, and 9% independent.
Kentucky's registration - and the sample used by SUSA in their June poll - was 57D/33R/9I.
Quite a substantial difference, and if the June sample had been used for this poll, McConnell's edge shrinks to five points, essentially the same as in the previous poll. Now, perhaps this sample is closer to the "ideal" likely-voter model. Perhaps this is a more accurate poll. But that's the caveat.
In any case, this certainly isn't a bad poll for Lunsford. He's got plenty of work to do, and McConnell of all people won't make it easy for him, but he's within striking distance even if this poll is spot-on.
MS-Sen: The DSCC has relaunched
The Real Wicker, a website assailing Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker for, among other things, his ties to convicted felon Jack Abramoff and his penchant for taking other lobbyist-sponsored junkets across the ocean.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee unveiled a new version of the web site www.theRealWicker.com highlighting Roger Wicker’s special interest connections, adding new information on his ties to now-jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff and facts on thousands of dollars worth of travel paid by special interests. The FBI has already investigated two lobbyist-connected groups that funded a trip during which Wicker got massages at a plush resort rather than touring tsunami damage.
"From relaxing on lobbyist-paid vacations to shielding jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff from public accountability, Roger Wicker seems to be busy in Washington taking care of everyone except the people who elected him," DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said. "Getting free massages at fancy resorts when you’re supposed to be on a fact finding mission does not pass the smell test for most Mississippians. Mississippians deserve to know the truth about Roger Wicker and his special interest loyalties, and the more they learn about his record, the more they’ll want Wicker out of office."
CO-Sen: Mark Udall is going to get swiftboated. Seriously.
Bob Perry, the wealthy businessman who bankrolled the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth to the tune of several million dollars, has a new cause: He's lavishing huge funds on the conservative group Club for Growth, which is in turn putting big money behind GOP candidates in key Senate races.
Perry has just plowed a whopping $400,000 into the coffers of the Club for Growth, the big right-wing group that advocates for conservative economic policies, the latest FEC records show.
Club For Growth, in turn, is now spending about $227,000 of that money to air an attack ad in Colorado against Mark Udall, who is the presumptive Dem nominee is going up against scandal-plagued GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer. The battle is playing out in a state where Dems have made strong gains after many years of Republican dominance.
NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb's latest ad:
MA-Sen: Senator John Kerry is on the air with a terrific ad:
Dunno why, but I love that ad...
NM-Sen: And the latest from Tom Udall, who has a brand new ad up and a new website to go with it:
House Races
NM-02: Democrat Harry Teague's Republican opponent, Ed Tinsley, really lacks class. Not to mention, subtlety.
In this case, he warns our good people in uniform serving overseas, that Teague plans "to cut your throat".
Happily, he was roundly booed. Check it out:
Hat tip to FBIHOP.
IL-10: The Chicago Tribune has a list of the top 10 iPod songs for various political figures, in Illinois and nationally. They've got Obama, McCain, Rod Blagojevich, Rahm Emanuel, etc.
They also have Mark Kirk's fave-ten (though not Orange to Blue candidate Dan Seals', unfortunately), which includes...
...wait for it...
"Baby Got Back".
A questionable choice indeed, I should think, for someone currently under heavy fire from women's groups for voting against pay equity for women. But heck, at least it wasn't "Who Let The Dogs Out".
ID-01: Ah, Bill Sali.
BOISE – Idaho congressman Bill Sali has opened a new campaign office just upstairs from his congressional office in Boise – both of them in the 2nd Congressional District. Sali represents the 1st District.
Oops! But perhaps there was some kind of office-space shortage on the other side of Boise?
Nah.
Sali's Democratic challenger, Walt Minnick, has his campaign office out by Boise's largest shopping mall on the western side of the city to be in the 1st District.
"There's lots of available office space in the 1st Congressional District, and we have very much enjoyed having our office there," said campaign spokesman John Foster. "We chose that space because the office is literally at the busiest intersection in the state, right near the mall. We're in the district and in Boise."
Bill Sali really makes mockery far too easy. Just an absolute idiot...
AZ-03: Apparently, John Shadegg has the same problem.
If Rep. John Shadegg (R) is having problems at his district office, he might want to call Rep. Ed Pastor (D-Ariz.). That’s because Shadegg’s office isn’t technically in his own district, Arizona’s 3rd. Instead, it’s in Pastor’s 4th district.
Confused? It’s easy to see why.
Shadegg moved his staff into the office, located on East Bethany Home Road in Phoenix, back in 1997, a spokeswoman says. But a round of redistricting ahead of the 2002 elections moved the borders of Shadegg’s district, leaving his office about 200 feet on the wrong side of the district line.
The quirk, the result of the often wacky vagaries of district-drawing, had gone relatively unnoticed until HOH started making inquiries. Democrats in Arizona, unsurprisingly, were amused to find out that Shadegg — whom they’re hoping to unseat this year — and his staff don’t work out of their own territory.
For someone so conscious of border issues, you'd think Shadegg would not have this problem.
The FEC pre-primary deadline for Orange to Blue candidate Bob Lord is tonight, so please give!
OH-15: Whether or not you're a fan of Ohio State University's athletics department, OSU's student body looks to be a critical factor in at least one Congressional race this fall; the prospective battle between 2006 Democratic nominee Mary Jo Kilroy and Ohio Sen. Steve Stivers.
Its impact is going to be felt in non-presidential races as well. For instance, Ohio State University is the largest college in the country, with more than 52,000 students enrolled on its main campus in Columbus. Democrats are eyeing it as key to helping Mary Jo Kilroy win her House seat to replace Republican Deborah Pryce, who is not seeking re-election.
"There is no question that the huge effort to register and turn out voters at Ohio State University is going to have a positive impact on our race," said Brad Bauman, a spokesman for Kilroy.
Kilroy already leads in most polling, so a solid increase in registered young voters can only help her.
AL-02: The second poll in a row - this one an independent - shows Democrat Bobby Bright defeating his Republican opponent, Jay Love, by double digits:
Bright (D) 47
Love (R) 37
If this were not a blood-red R+13 district, this race could be considered "Leans Democratic". As it is, it's almost there, and no worse than a tossup.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page