Let me start off by saying that there are maybe half a dozen people who actually know who Barack's VP will be. Regardless, Obama is going to pick his VP sometimes during office hours on either Monday or Tuesday so it is reasonable to assume that either the pick has already been made or Barack is down to final two or three. Having watched Obama's campaign over past few months two things stand out about this campaign. One, the campaign always stays on message ,i.e., they run a very tight ship. Two, this is not a vacillating campaign. They know what they want, map out their objectives, how to go about it and they always stay the course. Therefore, I'm going to argue that Obama has already made a choice, that the choice was made some time back and they are simply holding back only because of timing.Further, every sign points to him having already picked Tim Kaine once the vetting was done sometimes last month. Here's why
- Mark Warner is going to be Tuesday keynote speaker. If you take a look around the blogosphere, the general consensus seems to be that this points to Tim Kaine not being the VP. Why would you have two Virginia politicians headlining the convention on two consecutive days? The better question to ask is- Why is Warner the keynote speaker in the first place? True, he is a big time politician in Virginia and many in the Democratic party see him as a future Presidential candidate but also remember that he is not a big name outside blogs and outside the commonwealth. He was considered to be a second-tier candidate when he was contemplating the Presidential run. He isn't fresh or charismatic like Obama was in 2004 or Bill was in 1988.The only logical answer for me is that he is the keynote speaker because of Tim Kaine. That he is the choice of the Vice-Presidential candidate to be a headliner. This makes sense for two reasons.One, Barack knows that he is bypassing a more seasoned Virginia politician to go with Kaine and that they have to acknowledge Warner's seniority.Secondly, this also explains recent reports that Warner refused Obama's VP offer in order to run for senate. I doubt if VP job was ever offered to him but it is customary to give "first refusal" option to senior politicians. There is no other reason why such a report would surface a week before the VP pick. NONE. Let me put it another way, Why would Obama pick Virginia ex-Governor Mark Warner over his friend and current Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as the keynote speaker? Yep, you got it.
- Obama campaign played a central role in leaking of Kaine's name a couple of weeks back. Make no mistake, Chicago and Kaine's staff have been on the same wavelength for one and a half year. Some have argued that it was Obama's way of paying his respect to Kaine as he has been a tireless Barack supporter and surrogate over past one and a half year. It is definitely possible but this isn't the vibe I got from the whole episode as they let this news sink in for a few days without letting Kaine temper down the expectations of people in his camp.They moved on to Bayh and Biden later on which is usually done as a head fake before the eventual VP pick. Since I'm talking out of my ass anyway let me say that leaking of Kaine's name was probably Obama's way of telling party officials and left wing groups about his VP choice. One other thing, if I am not mistaken, Kaine's name was leaked after Obama's long and much-publicized meeting with his vetting team and his senior campaign staff. That was the only meeting of its kind as far as I know.
- This is a change election and Joe Biden is a lot of thing,most of them good, but he is not change. In fact, he is Mr. Washington who supported the Iraq war and bankruptcy bill. Bayh has these lobbyist connections with his wife having made millions in lobbying fees. Both these candidates may end up throwing Obama off his message and if I know anything about this campaign they don't get off message. Secondly, Obama has already selected VP candidate staffers which pretty much ensures that the candidate they want will not rock the boat, no matter what. Kaine's views on choice may be problematic but guess what? Obama already went and muddied the water with his statement on late-term abortions. Of course, it was a planned statement but, maybe just maybe, Obama was looking ahead to August and not November as most of us thought. Barack and Kaine see eye to eye on every other issue.
- While it is possible that Obama will select someone with an expertise in either economics or military affairs, I never bought these arguments for one second. Barack Obama is a very smart man who understands that job of executive is to manage a lot of smart people and it is the "vision thing" that is important not an expertise in any one field. A lot of people are pulling for Clark and I don't know how to say this but let me try- Clark is a blank slate in a way that he has never successfully asked people to vote for him on Democratic issues. Sebelius has. Schweitzer has and , of course, Kaine has.
- Life stories matter. Kaine has a life story to match Obama's "exotic" life story. Kaine's experience may fail Hillary's C-in-C test but it is exactly the kind of experience that goes well with Obama's own life and political experience. A practicing Catholic who worked as missionary in South America, worked as civil rights attorney and has enough political experience to be VP without undermining Obama's resume and core message.
- Telltale Signs: The day everyone was speculating about Bayh, Michelle Obama was campaigning with Tim Kaine. Her trip went under the radar precisely because Bayh's name was conveniently released over the weekend.Two, Tim Kaine has been more than a surrogate for Obama . He has been a substitute, a VP's job, for Obama on at least one occasion. Three, Barack did a huge rally with Tim Kaine just after wining the nomination. Four, the "other" Virginians have been offered "first refusal". Webb early on in the process and Warner more recently.Fifth, not a telltale sign but Barack was a community organizer and building relationships is extremely important in organizing. Barack has a relationship with Kaine that he does not have with Schweitzer, Bayh and Biden. This will not be a Lieberman or Edwards pick.
Anyway, I may be way off but I think the signs are there that the pick has already been made and the campaign is simply manipulating news cycles while Obama is away.