Will 2008 be a slamdunk for the Democrats? Or, will we end up with President McCain? A look at the most recent battleground polls shows a tightening race, with very little momentum moving in Barack Obama's direction. What to do? With at least a dozen toss-up states, comprising 147 electoral votes, we need to rethink this campaign––FAST. It's time get back from "vacation," get tough on McCain and really articulate what we mean by "change."
In order of importance, here is our "to-do" list for Democratic victory in 2008.
1) PARTY PEACE, NOW!
To get to McCain, we have to take a real look at how the post-Super Tuesday primaries really hurt Obama. For this, you've gotta love the Clinton campaign. By staying in the primary race several months after it was mathematically impossible for Hillary to gain the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama really got beat up–and John McCain didn't even have to throw a punch. Yes, Obama claimed the nomination, but only after bruising, highly-technical credentials bouts, and millions more in campaign spending. He emerged victorious, but bloodied, tainted, and tarnished in the eyes of the media and many undecided voters. In many ways, Obama's victory felt like a TKO, not a championship knock-out.
Without a truly commanding primary victory, Obama has been forced to acquiesce to Clinton's most disgruntled supporters. To them, Obama seems as illegitimate as Bush did to progressive Democrats in 2000. The technical winner, a disruptive usurper who gained stature through charisma, personality, and just a wee bit of extra-political technical prowess. They are angry. And many of Clinton's supporters, sensing all along that Obama can't win, seem to have a profound desire to keep her 2012 options open. Note to the PUMA crowd: please don't go Nader on us. It's still a 45-45 America and every vote counts. Being the spoiler won't be fun, if McCain gets to make even one Supreme Court appointment. Unless, the Denver convention displays a united front in the battle to defeat McCain, it will be a tough, probably impossible slog. After all, if the Democrats aren't backing their candidate, why should independents, undecideds, or moderate Republicans support the senator from Illinois?
2) IT'S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPIDS!
To be fair, the Obama campaign is polling well on the economic issues. And, after eight years of Bush-Cheney, the public has real reticence that more tax cuts, off-shore drilling, and more globalization are going to save their jobs from off-shoring, out-sourcing, mergers, or just good, old-fashioned layoffs. Obama's platform is strong, but its unemotional and it's not hitting people where they really live. On the other hand, McCain's rhetoric is simple: "Jobs for America." To combat the simplicity––and simplistic––nature of McCain's messaging, Obama needs some bold proposals. $1000 tax credits aren't going to sway this electorate. What about eliminating the withholding tax for individuals and working families whose income precludes any tax liability? What about eliminating the AMT? What about repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while allowing folks the opportunity to deduct the total cost of college, or even private school? What about letting business deduct the cost of new equipment on a cash basis, instead of depreciating it to stimulate new investments? What about making national health care an economic development issue? What about connecting America with High-Speed Rail? What about a national mission to find sustainable, non-nuclear energy sources on the scale of Kennedy's missions into space? It's scary out there and Obama needs to demonstrate he not only "feels your pain," but he has some real remedies at the ready and big dreams that are doable.
3)TIME TO 'BRAND' FOR THE GENERAL ELECTION
From the start, the Obama campaign has looked different–and has been more deeply branded–than any U.S. presidential campaign in history. In the Democratic primaries, it worked. The soft, glowing edges of Obama's insignia, visual system, and interactive presence differentiated him perfectly from his competition. His look was a combination of retro-chic and a dreamy luxury brand. To the public, he was clearly "A different kind of politician." But, Obama's brand might be a bit too "dreamy" for a general election electorate praying to keep their jobs (and their homes) in places like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida. To be honest, we're surprised that the Obama campaign didn't make a subtle transition from the "hope/change" glowing graphics in June. It's time for the "dream" to come into focus. Right now, the "dream" is fading, as the undecided battleground voters ask: "Is this guy just some dreamer, or does he have real answers to my immediate needs, like the exportation of our communities jobs to China, India, Brazil, or Vietnam?" Battleground voters need to see some hard edged answers. The "glow" simply reinforces "dreamy." It's time to be "Presidential."
The election isn't lost, but Obama needs to pull his dream into "focus," stat!