I have to confess each day that I follow this campaign, there are things that encourage me and things that frustrate me about how this general election campaign is going.
On the positive side:
- Obama seems very solid in the Kerry states.
- Obama has maintained a steady, but small, national lead despite spending almost 3 weeks off the national campaign trail.
- Obama has showed he can beat back the GOP machine.
- McCain is a bad candidate who has not energized voters, defined himself or his policies.
On the negative side:
- The polls in the battleground states are too tight for comfort and Obama has slipped from positions held in late June/early July.
- There is discrepancy between national and state polls. National polls show a consistent Obama lead and poor McCain performance, but Obama has no clear leads in any southern state, and is not currently ahead in key battlegrounds like Missouri or Nevada. Obama is underperforming the electoral college relative to his national polling average.
- Obama has missed opportunities to place a single minded focus on the economy. The only week he did so (the week before the vacation, he gained in the polls to around a +6 average). However, he has not maintained consistency and if he did, this race would be over by now. Instead of going into the convention with a 7 to 10 point lead, he will be lucky to have a 2 to 5 point lead.
- Obama has spent too much time trying to define himself too much, talking about too many issues, and is trying to be all things to all people. He has to be about a few issues: the war and the economy. He has to consistently attack McCain as Bush Part III. The ad men were slow to respond, but they may have their game together now.
- Obama has been too opaque about the VP selection. Because he is new to the political scene, people are looking at his VP selection very closely to see if he will make a good judgment. He needs someone with DC experience who can fill out the resume and give him a boost in the battlegrounds. For him to throw inexperienced folks like Sebelius and Kaine into the mix, and to distance himself from very qualified people like Clinton or Clark is puzzling to a lot of people who are not Daily Kos aficionados.
If Obama is going to win this election, he has to make a solid VP pick (and that means Bayh, Clark, Clinton or Biden). He has to make a real commitment to keep the focus on the economy, the war, and McCain as Bush III throughout the remainder of this campaign. His ads have to be tight and focused and he has to make a better effort in Florida and Missouri.