When they speak of the term Appalachia, people are usually thinking of West Virginia, Kentucky, and eastern Tennessee. But the culture and economic conditions of the Appalachian region extend well into western Pennsylvania and southeastern sections of Ohio. All agree that these two states are important in this year’s presidential election. Under many scenarios the voter outcome in Ohio could either give or deny the White House to Barack Obama.
The 2004 election illustrates the importance of Ohio. In 2004 George W. Bush won the state of Ohio by 119,000 votes. Had John Kerry defeated Bush in Ohio, Kerry would have won the presidency.
Scioto County borders Kentucky on the southern edge of Ohio. It has a population of about 80,000. This rural county is almost all white. There are farms here as well as industrial plants along the Ohio River. Almost 20 percent of the population is poor. The median age of the population is well above the national average.
Scioto County may be considered a voting model for much of the rural areas of Ohio. George Bush won a slim majority of the county’s votes in the 2004 presidential election. To do well in Ohio, Barack Obama at the very least would have to approach the vote totals that John Kerry received in Scioto County and in the dozens of similar counties throughout southern Ohio. About 35,000 voters cast their ballots in the 2004 election in Scioto County.
Obama’s problem in southern Ohio in the coming fall election is that in last spring’s Democratic primary Obama was blown out of the water in Scioto County. Hillary Clinton won there by a huge 81 percent of vote. Obama captured only 16 percent of Democratic voters.
Obama’s poor showing is due in part to his race. But the situation is more complicated. People in Appalachia tend to be distrustful of strangers, wary of people who are different, or simply suspicious of folks with whom they are unfamiliar. Barack Obama, as a young, eloquent, black man with a degree from Harvard Law School is not someone with whom residents of Scioto County will readily identify. They may see Obama as aloof and as someone who is out of touch with the realities of their everyday lives.
The question is how can Obama reverse his fortunes in Scioto County and the other sister communities in the rural parts of Appalachia? After his humiliating defeat in the primary elections in Ohio and Pennsylvania, what can he now do to convince these working-class voters that he will be their best candidate for president?
One answer is certain. The candidate needs to allocate money, campaign advertising, and organizational resources to these Appalachian regions of Pennsylvania and Ohio.
But most important is Obama’s need to overcome an insular rural culture that works against him. The candidate must visit these Appalachian areas as often as possible between now and November 4. People in these communities need to hear Obama’s message of hope. They need to see that he is neither aloof nor an elitist. They need to see him comfortably relating to proud working-class people. Voters like those in Scioto County need to be reassured that a new face on the political scene can be trusted to share and advance their values. It is critical that the self-reliant people of southern Ohio hear firsthand Obama’s plan to alleviate poverty, create jobs, raise the minimum wage, and provide health care for all Americans.
In 2004 the GOP successfully convinced voters that John Kerry was arrogant, aloof, and out of touch with the common man. He was photographed windsurfing on Nantucket, an eastern spa that is viewed as a playground for the rich. Kerry spoke French. He socialized with the jet-set.
Obama must takes measures to avoid being saddled with a similar label. There are some observers of the American political scene who convincingly argue that Obama needs instruction on how to walk into a Dunkin’ Donuts and shoot the breeze with everybody who works or eats there. It’s fatal to turn up his nose when a local woman who is proud of her cooking offers him a home-cooked sugar bun dripping in cream.
Unfortunately, there is more to the story than just one Ohio county. The voting coattails of Scioto County extend to a number counties in southeastern Ohio where voters hold similar views. These are the counties where Hillary Clinton also received more than 70 percent of the vote in the Democratic primaries. They are Jackson, Lawrence, Gallia, Meigs, Monroe, Belmont, Harrison, Adams, Brown, Pike, and Vinton counties. All of these counties are in the southeastern part of Ohio.
Obama faces similar challenges appealing to voters in southwestern and central Pennsylvania as well as in western portions of Virginia and North Carolina, all part of the Appalachian region. These states, as well as Ohio, are important on the Electoral College map.
Boosting the black vote in Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus will undoubtedly provide additional votes for Obama in Ohio. But he must not ignore the white vote throughout rural Ohio. If Obama’s vote in these areas drops considerably from the totals John Kerry was able to win, additional black votes in urban areas will not be enough for him to carry the state.
The same holds true in Pennsylvania. There are still more black votes in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh that need to be collected. But a big effort must be made by the Obama campaign to build the usual Democratic vote totals in the rural, often poor areas in the southwestern and Appalachian part of the state.
So too in Virginia. If Obama can make gains in the mountainous counties
in the extreme western portion of the state while at the same time building the black vote in the eastern counties, he stands a good chance of turning Virginia into a blue state in November.
Any headway Obama can make with white voters in these regions will solidly improve his prospects for carrying these states.