Lost in all the excitement over McCain's houses (note, BTW, that the $13MM or so in real estate is likely only about 10% of the McCains' wealth) is this: A pattern is emerging in the Obama campaign's tactics. It's a pattern that looks extremely promising to me. The tactic is simplicity itself, and as anti-Rovian as possible, since it exploits, not McCain's strengths, but a fundamental weakness.
Here's the deal: John McCain cannot stay on message.
The only strength George W Bush brought to campaigning, remember, was an extreme ability to follow instructions. Rove and his minions engineered the rest: the South Carolina smear of John McCain; the Swift Boaters; the speeches given to hand-picked audiences.
Look those over. The new Rovians in McCain's campaign are working furiously on the smears, but what have they produced so far? Obama's a celebrity. Obama's a lightweight. Obama's naive. Obama's not ready. They know full well that Obama can use the debates to take down those points, so they've pushed them hard and early, hoping they'll stick before September 26th. That's probably reduced Obama's numbers, but note that it hasn't moved McCain's numbers up much. These tactics are moving people to the fence, not over it.
Obama, OTOH, is running a disciplined campaign, but one that is prepared to exploit McCain's biggest weakness: his propensity to talk. Did you notice how quickly Obama jumped on the $5MM remark from Saddleback? Is there a media market in America in which a surrogate from Obama's campaign hasn't talked about the Real Estate Magnate?
Let me remind you all of somthing. Just because attacking the strength of one's opponent worked for Karl Rove doesn't mean that's the only possible successful strategy.
故曰:知彼知己,百戰不殆A
307;不知彼而知己,一勝一負;
不知彼,不知己,每戰必殆
290;(故曰:知彼知己,百战不殆
;;不知彼而知己,一胜一负
5307;不知彼,不知己,每战必殆
;。)
Or, in English, for non-Mandarin speakers like me:
So it is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will fight without danger in battles.
If you only know yourself, but not your opponent, you may win or may lose.
If you know neither yourself nor your enemy, you will always endanger yourself.
From Sun-Tzu's The Art of War; written in the 6th Century BC, its essential points still resonate. No one who has read Obama's books can doubt that he knows himself. Now it's clear that he has made a study of his opponent. He knows that McCain is gaffe-prone and undisciplined. McCain can do his best to mitigate his tendencies, but his track record on this score is famously poor. In other words, this is McCain's fatal character flaw. Bush's fundamental flaw -- his complete lack of depth -- was never probed by either Gore or Kerry. Obama is clearly ready and waiting to make it easy for John McCain to self-destruct.
I'm not suggesting that Obama will be exclusively reactive. More likely, his team has identified the lines of attack, and will exploit them, either when McCain hands them the gift, or when they push him off message. It turns out that's not too hard to do -- show him where his mouth is, and McCain obligingly inserts his foot; he is his own iconoclast.
Obama has just signaled the end of rope-a-dope. He's given McCain the chance to pummel him, responding just enough to learn McCain's battle plans. I suspect, in fact, that the attacks weren't supposed to start yet; but when the enemy gives away their position, the prepared army attacks.
是故百戰百勝,非善之善者
063;;不戰而屈人之兵,善之善
者也。
Therefore one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the most skillful. Seizing the enemy without fighting is the most skillful.
Or, if you like, the Sun-Tzu aphorism that McCain, for all the Rovian assistance, will never quite get:
兵不厭詐。
All warfare is based on deception.
Obama gets it; he just feinted McCain into giving away his entire strategy. At the same time, his team was completely prepared to pounce on the inevitable McCain gaffe. It's a shame McCain didn't study harder at Annapolis.
NB: Ignore those Roman numerals in the Mandarin.