Turn back the clock to 2004. I remember watching the Democratic Convention that year and seeing Sen. Kerry attempt to define himself as the war hero ready to be commander in chief. I remember, too, that I thought it was a risky strategy. Nary a word about his accomplishments and service as a United States Senator, which was by far the more compelling biography. No, Kerry went out of his way to define himself before the Swiftboaters got to him.
Now McCain is actively swiftboating himself, in a different context and with a different method. Not with the lies of swiftboaters, but with the truth that everybody knows:
I was a POW in Vietnam.
If McCain continues to define himself in this way, he will lose. Big.
Remember, the Swiftboat attacks in 2004 would not nearly have been effective if Kerry didn't go out of his way to tout his service as visibly as he did. In doing so, Kerry through down the gauntlet, sort of a dare to challenge his honorable service. And when the lies got spread, the defining perception that Kerry would do or say anything was the underlying theme the Swiftboaters exploited. The overall message was you can't trust Kerry.
McCain doesn't need a group of Swiftboaters to take him out on his theme, though. As he continues to use his POW status as a crutch, he runs the risk of voters having some very disturbing questions pop up in their minds.
Let's say next week McCain's convention focuses an inordinate amount of time on his 5 1/2 years as a POW (a fair bet, given the message that we've been seeing so far). Now imagine the voters hearing the stories that a lot of them have already heard...stories that don't have to come from the Obama campaign, and shouldn't.
Stories about McCain's temper.
Stories about him not being able to remember things, like how many houses he owns.
Stories about his adultery to his first wife.
Stories about his likeability amongst his colleagues.
Stories, that unlike the Swiftboat lies, happen to be true.
And sitting there, people thinking about it, they will remember that McCain was a POW. And they won't think about it as an excuse, but rather as a concern about his ability to be commander-in-chief.
It will nag voters in a way they won't like. Of course they respect McCain for his service. And not many people know that actual horror of being a POW, and what it might have done to McCain.
But...but...as much as the McCain camp wants to place doubts about Obama, more doubts will be sewn in the minds of voters if the refrain is "POW, POW, POW..."
Moreso than a "punchline," as Rachel Maddow put it, the POW refrain will become a major concern of voters if exploited too much.
Such is the risk McCain runs. He can be the "maverick," running on his independent streak in Washington...
or he can run as a POW. Something that ultimately may make him seem dangerous in the minds of many voters.
I know what path I hope McCain chooses.