I know, I know..it's a daily tracking poll. But I watch this poll every day and this is the first time since June that McCain has lead by any margin. What's troubling for me is that according to Gallup
An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.
I'm left wondering why.
Flip
There seems to be a backlash to this VP Choice. Gee..I wonder who could it be?
Rasmussen has some ideas. Obama went from +3 to a tie since Biden was picked.
Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.
I've been following these polls very closely. Rasmussen always tends to poll a little higher than Gallup. I find it to be more compelling that both the polls move in the same direction on the same polling time.
Let's just assume that it is the Hillary deadenders. I'm imagining a day on November 5 when we feel that heatbreak again, and the pundits point to exit pools that say that "Barack Obama got 73% of the Democratic vote, but it was the Hillary Clinton voters who didn't come home".
God, I hope I don't see that day, because it will be a cold day in Hell that I'll ever pull the lever for Hillary in '12. I will wait with baited breath tonight for this speech..oh it better be a barn burner that leaves no one uncertain that a vote for McCain is a vote for more wars, no health care, more economic heartship. This party needs Unity, and Obama's doing everything he can. It's time for others to step up to the plate.