Full disclosure: This is not a political diary and, as such, may not fit within the scope of Daily Kos. But, I feel compelled to share my supposed-"expertise" here with my fellow Kossacks.
So, I come here for the same reason I did yesterday morning. I posted a diary Wednesday morning on Tropical Storm Gustav. I am a meteorologist whose occupation is forecasting, with a focus on forecasting Atlantic tropical cyclones. With that, "after the jump", as I did yesterday, I want to give interested parties the latest on the threat of Gustav...
Tropical Storm Gustav, as is obvious from his designation, got ripped up by Haiti and was downgraded to a tropical storm early on Wednesday. That's a mixed blessing as his weaker state should mean less impact on Jamaica. But, unfortunately, that long duration intermingling with Haiti has meant 22+ deaths in that country. Moreover, Gustav is recovering rapidly this morning...
That latest aircraft reconaissance data can be found here. For those unable to interpret some of this crazy, coded data, the basic information is as follows. As I begin putting this diary together, around 8:00AM EDT, the latest "high-density observation" from the aircraft, at 7:40AM, reported a central pressure in Gustav of 983mb. At 6:10AM they reported 988mb. A drop of 5mb in 2 hours is indicative of solid intensification. In fact, at 7:30AM, after the 988mb report, the National Hurricane Center issued a special update increasing Gustav to 60kts (70mph). Given the continued pressure falls, Gustav is on the cusp of regaining hurricane intensity, and will likely be a hurricane by 11AM. The only inhibiting factor is interaction with land when it strikes Jamaica.
The latest satellite loops also show Gustav developing impressively, with very strong convection around the center. (I tried to embed the image here, but it has to be from an approved image source... sigh... so, just go to the link.) No question about it... Gustav is revving up. So, the questions are: Where does he go? And how strong when he gets there?
The answers to those questions are, unfortunately, no more clear than they were 24 hours ago. But, on the plus side, even 24 hours ago they were coming into focus pretty well. So, there is a fairly solid idea where Gustav is headed... and roughly how strong he may be once he arrives there...
As for where he goes, you should pay attention to the National Hurricane Center's official forecast, which can be found here. Many "weather weenies" also like to read the thoughts from Dr. Jeff Masters, whose blog can be found on Weather Underground. But many of you just want to know the bottom line. Obviously, that comes from the official NHC link above. But, you should know what the various range of possibilities are. The second image from Dr. Kerry Emanuel's page (sorry, again I tried to embed the image ...not possible), is not always the most timely updated track map, but it is the most easily viewed. Other sites require you to know either what "model run" you want to view or what model "type" you want. This image/page gives you a quick snapshot of the range of possibilities. Those tracks go through day 5 (Tuesday morning). You can see from this image that only one model has landfall by then, but they are all aiming between Corpus Christi, TX and Mobile, AL. I can tell you that this image, at the time I'm writing this, does not include the latest of some of these models. It also doesn't include 100% of the model solutions. Some of the latest models do have landfall now by Tuesday morning. And some of the models not shown here tend to lean towards the eastern side of these solutions... including one (albeit only a statistical model ...called the "BAMD") as far east as Appalachicola, FL. So, the complete range of solutions is looking towards landfall between Corpus Christi, TX and Appalachicola, FL sometime between late Monday and mid to late Tuesday. At this point, I believe the most likely landfall - and this is just my own projection - is near or just east of Morgan City, Louisiana very early in the morning on Tuesday.
As for the intensity question. The above link to Dr. Kerry Emanuel's page also shows the intensity models, seen in the top image on that page.
Please be aware that the best models in that image should be the CHIPS, GFDI and HWFI. Notice also that they are clustered very nicely at 120 hours (5 days... around the time of landfall) at around or just over 100kts (115mph). A Category 3 hurricane is about 100-115kts. So, these models are showing a low-end Category 3 hurricane at landfall. And disregard the steep drop-off in the GFDI at the end; that's simply because it has an earlier landfall (and the storm weakens dramatically after landfall, of course)... so, it, too, is around 100kts at landfall. The official National Hurricane Center forecast is also around 100kts at landfall. So, there is pretty much unanimity there. Some models threaten a Category 4, as they get Gustav up to that, then weaken him just prior to landfall... but these, nonetheless, still come ashore as a Category 3.
Bottom line: Most model guidance, the National Hurricane Center, and my own forecast is in agreement aiming for a north-central or north-western Gulf of Mexico landfall for Gustav early next week as a Category 3 hurricane. Everyone along the Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle should be on alert. But be aware that the "focus" is in the area of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. If you live in, are vacationing in, or have loved ones in this area, please stay on top of this situation. Bookmark some of the links I put in here and visit them often. Floridians should also keep a wary eye cast eastward as Tropical Depression Eight will likely become Tropical Storm Hanna very soon... and while there is much debate where she is headed (and she may never make landfall), there is more than one model showing an eventual threat to Florida.
In closing, some updated info since I began writing this post... The reconnaissance aircraft actually "fixed" Gustav with a 985mb pressure - a bit higher (weaker) than I indicated up top. Nonetheless, this still shows strengthening. And the latest satellite imagery also still continues to show Gustav gaining strength. So, I still anticipate him being upgraded to a hurricane at 11AM ...or later this afternoon at the latest. A new set of statistical model guidance (four different models) is also in. They tend to be less reliable, but there's nothing out of the ordinary in any of them... landfall Tuesday between Galveston, TX and Mobile, AL. The best of those four ("BAMD") has landfall in the wee hours Tue AM just east of New Orleans, LA. And the accompanying intensity model has landfall around a Category 2 (this may sound comforting, as it's not a Cat 3 - like the other guidance - but this model has tended to run low, and has increased the intensity every run in the past 24 hours).
If you have any questions about Gustav, feel free to ask before this diary rolls off the list. I am at work right now, so my time is limited. But I will try to answer any and all questions.
*Sorry... wish I could've embedded the images herein, rather than just a wordy, text-heavy diary, but I don't have time to save to my computer, upload to some 3rd party source, etc, etc. Complain to your local dKos admin. :-) I tried.
UPDATE 11AM EDT ...okay, updating from work, so I'll be as quick as possible. New National Hurricane Center forecast out. NHC has landfall in five days (Tuesday morning) as a Category 3 hurricane near Morgan City, LA. They still have Gustav, initially, as a tropical storm. I must say, in my professional opinion, I disagree. It should be a hurricane. But no reconnaissance aircraft is in the area to verify this. If this stays on the "rec" list, I'll keep updating. An aircraft will be in later this afternoon. Meanwhile, updated model guidance will also come in over the next few hours. On a related note, Tropical Depression #8 is now Tropical Storm Hanna... predicted to become a hurricane. No threat through five days, but moving, generally, towards Florida by then (but not yet very close).
...and while I disagree with NHC's current designation of Gustav, I do agree with their forecast of the storm. And I also agree with their forecast for Hanna.
...more updates as conditions warrant...
UPDATEx2 12:30PM EDT ...Not much of an update this time. Just a bit of new info. The new "American model" (called the GFS) run is in. It has Gustav meandering along the western Louisiana coast next Tuesday, hanging offshore for some time, and gradually drifting southwest off the Texas coast. Landfall finally occurs late Thursday near Corpus Christi or Brownsville, TX. However, this model has been horrible of late!! I put zero faith in it. I am sharing it with you so that you know the latest and know what some people may be chattering about. The real expectations are unchanged. Same track and intensity forecast as before.
...meanwhile, a new reconnaissance aircraft is en route to Gustav. New reports from it should be forthcoming in the next hour or two. Also, several better forecast models will be streaming in over the next few hours too. In fact, the hurricane-specific HWRF and GFDL will come in around 1:30PM EDT. I will, of course, update y'all here. In the meantime, let me also point out the Gustav is looking stronger on satellite imagery. An eye is appearing on visible imagery, and it is about to make landfall on Jamaica. So, I continue to contend that Gustav is a hurricane, though he may drop back slightly due to interaction with Jamaica.
UPDATEx3 1:55PM EDT ...new hurricane models are now in and are similar to previous ones. One model (called the GFDL) sends Gustav inland near or just east of Gulfport, MS very late Monday as a Category 3 hurricane. The other model (the HWRF) still has no landfall through Tuesday afternoon, and has the track wobbling. But it looks as though it's aiming for the TX/LA border, or far western Louisiana, late Tuesday night as a Category 3... or possibly even a strong Category 2. These two tracks actually represent some divergence in the forecasts - which is not helpful. Nonetheless, the focus remains on Louisiana as a weak Category 3. I should also point out that the models provide nothing spectacularly informative regarding Hanna... still no threat through day five.
As for the long-awaited reconnaissance aircraft data... the recon plane is just arriving at Gustav. I'm trying to wait for it to report before I post this update................... Satellite and radar shows that the center may be just onshore of Jamaica. That would mean a recon "fix" may not come. But, so far, the aircraft's surface wind instrument has clocked 69kt surface winds. That's good enough for hurricane strength, but oftentimes the National Hurricane Center will undercut those winds as they're not always reliable "sustained" winds. Well, just saw a new report of 75kt from that instrument, but with only 61 sustained at flight level, I don't know if NHC will make the upgrade. ....errr... nope... 2PM intermediate advisory from NHC is out and they keep it at a tropical storm. Obviously, we can continue to debate this. Their own surface wind estimating instrumentation shows Gustav well over minimal hurricane strength, but the plane's flight level winds contradict this. So, NHC has decided to just leave well enough alone. So, "officially", still Tropical Storm Gustav. I still contend it's a hurricane, but that's splitting hairs (I'd call it 65 or 70kts; NHC calls it 60kts ...close enough).
...so, that's it for now. Some model divergence and some continued debate on the initial intensity. But no real changes in the bottom line.
UPDATEx4 ...3:30PM EDT ...Okay, this is probably my last update of the day. But I'll certainly try to get a post up with updates tomorrow. But I wanted to get one more up today, as there is a plethora of new weather model data out from the global models. Moreover, they do some disturbing things with Hanna as well... though I can't emphasize enough that any attempts to forecast Hanna beyond about day 5 involve a lot of guesswork. But this is what those various global models show...
ECMWF (European model): This has probably been the best performer this season. It has shifted Gustav just a shade west... to landfall between Grand Isle and Pecan Island, LA in the wee hours Tuesday morning. The "disturbing" issue with Hanna is that it allows her to sneak into the Gulf as a major hurricane, with landfall near Grand Isle, LA on Saturday. But, again, fear not on this one just yet. Focus on Gustav for now.
NOGAPS (Navy model): Similar track as the ECMWF with Gustav, but scraping along the LA coast a bit so that actual landfall occurs a little more westward, towards Pecan Island or Grand Chernier on Tuesday. With Hanna, it's a bit less "evil"... not following up Gustav into the Gulf. Still, it does indicate a likely landfall in the Carolinas on Friday.
UKMET (United Kingdom model): Virtually identical to the NOGAPS with Gustav, except slower... landfall on Wednesday. With Hanna it is most similar to the ECMWF, but this model only goes through day 6 (next Wed), so we only see Hanna making the south turn towards Cuba. Precisely where she'd go after that is unknown... but likely somewhere into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
GEM (Canadian model): Takes Gustav to a landfall near Mobile on Monday night. Hanna is, meanwhile, driven south towards Hispaniola by next Wednesday. Once again, the destination from there is unknown, but the upper pattern would suggest the eastern Gulf.
Bottom line: Let's not hyperventilate about Hanna just yet - though the recent developments are worrisome. First things first, the range of solutions from these new global models with Gustav are from western Louisiana through Mobile, AL, with landfall timing between late Monday and late Tuesday..... basically, all spread on either side of current expectations... near Morgan City, LA very early Tue AM. So, no change in expectations. But I'd continue to warn that that's almost five days out, so there are almost sure to be some adjustments to this.
As for any new "real" data from the storm... nothing much. The recon plane did make one good "fix", with nothing surprising. Since then, it's tough to "fix" the center again, as it is flirting with or over the eastern tip of Jamaica. And satellite imagery looks mixed but generally still reasonably impressive. So, Gustav remains a marginal hurricane or top-notch tropical storm. A bit of weakening may occur in the near term as Gustav traverses Jamaica. Thereafter, intensification should resume.