So many crumb-bums, so little time.
House Races
NJ-05: Stuart Rothenberg is at it again. This time, he's saying that Rabbi Dennis Shulman, running for Congress against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett in New Jersey, is acting "un-rabbi-like" on the campaign trail. DavidNYC smacks the Beltway gasbag hard, and deservedly so.
FL-21: Via SSP, SurveyUSA polls the race for this Miami-area GOP seat, and finds blowhard incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart trailing (8/24-26, likely voters):
Raul Martinez (D): 48
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46
Remember, this is an R+6.2 district that Bush won by 14 points in 2004. Many have suspected that the GOP's longtime stranglehold on the Cuban-American vote in South Florida was slipping, and this poll is further evidence of a dramatic realignment. Democrats have cut the GOP's voter registration advantage by over 13,000 in this district alone since 2006, and similarly impressive gains have been posted in FL-18 and FL-25, where progressive fighters Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia are waging strong campaigns against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, respectively.
The most exciting evidence that South Florida is trending blue from the poll? Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48% each. If the GOP can't count on safe margins in districts like FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25, then they're going to be in trouble this November.
AK-AL: It feels like Christmas in Alaska this week for Democrats. In the midst of an incredibly tense GOP primary that has yet to be decided after over 36 hours of ballot counting, GOP Rep. Don Young is refusing to rule out an Independent run if he loses the final count:
Asked if he would consider running as an Independent if he lost the primary, Young said he hadn't considered it.
"It's a good idea; I might," he said. "But I don't expect him to win the primary."
However, a legal analysis from the Law Offices of Crumb & Bum, LLC, reveals that Young would not be able to petition his way back on the ballot, as the filing deadline has passed. However, he can run as a write-in candidate, if he chooses to.
This may all be a moot point, though, as Young is still leading by a 152-vote margin. One lone precinct (from the tiny town of Hughes, Alaska) is outstanding, as well as several thousand absentee and "questioned" (i.e. provisional) ballots that have yet to be counted. Roll Call says that these ballots will take an additional 10-15 days to be counted, and a winner won't be certified until Sept. 17 or 18. If the final difference is less than 0.5%, the state will pay for a recount (if the loser requests one), and that will add at least another "three to five days" to the process. Meanwhile, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz has free rein to campaign across the state while Sean Parnell and Young bite their fingernails.
How will the outstanding ballots break? Andy Dufresne takes a comprehensive look at the absentee ballots, and finds good news for Young.
NY-13: The GOP primary for the open seat of disgraced retiring Rep. Vito Fossella has taken a turn for the ugly. After Staten Island GOP treasurer Jamshad Wyne accused Robert Straniere of illegal campaign fundraising in his 2001 Borough presidency campaign, Straniere fired back with first-class gutter politics:
Meanwhile, during an interview yesterday, Straniere said Wyne has been using the name "Jim" on the campaign trail because "he is trying to remake himself into something other than who is. He obviously doesn't want people to know he is Pakistani and a Muslim."
Stay classy, Republicans.
IL-10: Dan Seals, one of my favorite candidates, has released his first ad of the general election campaign. Check it out:
NRCC: The NRCC has reserved $8.8 million in advertising time for 14 districts (including freakin' Idaho's 1st). The only problem? The DCCC has reserved even more in most of these districts.
Senate Races
MS-Sen-B: Roger Wicker's campaign says that job losses in Mississippi due to Wicker's support of free trade is actually a good thing:
Yeah, good luck with that one, Roger.
ID-Sen: Another interesting poll out of Idaho. Greg Smith and Associates (8/18-22, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 29
Jim Risch (R): 41
Rex Rammell (I): 3
Those numbers are very much in-line with Research 2000's take on this race from July. While LaRocco faces a challenging road ahead, it's very telling that Risch can't soar far beyond 40% in all the polls we've seen so far from this race. This is a state that Bush carried with nearly 70% of the vote -- twice.
DNCC: Backstage before his surprise appearance at the DNCC last night, Barack Obama talks about the importance of making big gains in the Senate this year: