Stephen Harper announced that the Governor General Michaëlle Jean would be replaced by the Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario for the Paralympic Game ceremonies in Beijing, so she can dissolve Parliament. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have announced an ad buy to debut tomorrow. Make no mistake about it: there will be a federal election this October.
The date has not been finalized yet. The campaign must last a minimum of 36 days (and no more than 3 months). It is said that Harper wants it as quickly as possible, so the most likely date is the 14th of October: if he wants it on the 6th, Parliament would have to be dissolved tomorrow. One potential miscue: it comes the day after (Canadian) Thanksgiving.
The main issues will probably include the Conservative record, leadership, the environment, regional issues, health care (a perennial) and the economy. Afghanistan, child care, ethics, copyright and culture are not now major issues but could turn out to be depending on how things progress. Harper flouted a law he put through setting fixed election dates, saying Parliament has become ineffective, but this will not likely remain at the forefront for long (if it does, Harper is in serious trouble!)
The polls have the Liberals and Conservatives very close, at 30% or just above, with the NDP, Bloc and Greens lower. A minority government is predicted by many, especially a Conservative one, with majority Conservative(!) government or minority Liberal as possibilities. In general, little change is a good possibility.
So why an election?
Harper wants a degree of certainty in turbulent economic times, especially in Ontario. But some suspect other motives. A former friend and close-linked ideologue with Harper, Tom Flanagan, suggests the Conservatives are simply doing war in order to wear down the Liberals. The reasoning which follows is that, in depleting the Liberal coffers, they become permanently handicapped and lose the mantle of 'Canada's Natural Governing Party".
Check out here tomorrow for why a simultaneous elecion campaign as America is important for progressives. Many say that Canada is a socialist paradise. Compared to the U.S., yes. But it's not always as clear-cut as many would like to believe.
If this diary was hard to understand for those with little background, that's OK. There'll be a brief political dictionary here soon. I'll also present the parties, the issues, the background, as well as tour Canada. Of course I'll let you know how things are going. Canada and America can be compared if I have enough time (I'm limited to one diary a day).
I suspect a few themes will undergird this series:
- whether and how the US election will influence the Canadian one, or the Canadian results the American one (?),
- the role Quebec, the attempts to win it over, and the presence of a "dual campaign" play in shaping the overall campaign,
- the importance of leadership, and
- the implied Conservative advantage - due to their warchest which is beyond bursting (and so explaining their pre-emptive ad buy)
In any case, interesing times lie ahead.