As I drove into work this morning and heard on the Stephanie Miller show that McCain (read: his handlers) had selected Palin as the VP nominee, I didn't know what to think at first. After all, I probably would have been like most Americans and said, "Sarah who?" if not for DailyKos informing me of Troopergate. I really wondered what the hell it was they were thinking. Could they really be serious? I mean, they just invalidated almost every argument they've used against Obama, and replaced it with the possibility of calling in the sexist card if the Dems don't parse their words properly... or even if they do. Then I started thinking... maybe this is the 2008 version of Harriet Miers. i.e. a total publicity stunt.
Think about it for a second. The McCain camp needed to put something out there that would hit hard in the wake of Obama's record-breaking (on many levels) speech. They needed to get the publicity back on themselves to give the media something to yammer about and the Sunday-talking heads to do. They knew the Obama speech was going to be big, so they needed something sensational and lacking in substance to try to go, "Me! Look at me! I'm enacting change too! I've got a young woman as my running mate. Doesn't that make me mavericky!"
I don't think she was vetted. I don't think that she was evaluated on all sides strategically, or even tactically, for the impact. Lets face it, the Republican playbook for decades has been to hone in on a single divisive issue and talk it to death, drowning out the actual issues. Sensationalize minor issues and make stuff up it you have to. Obama skillfully neutralized the sensationalist McCain arguments with Biden as a running mate and some really juicy, easy to swallow lines in his speech. Announcing a Mittens or Pawlenty would have generated little to nothing in the way of attention.
Sarah Palin is a tool, pure and simple. The media would be forced to devote time simply explaining who she was, which would give the talking heads 2 days to generate subjective spin for the talking points on the Sunday Morning shows.
If I was to write a hypothetical, something that I don't think will happen but is kind of believable, it would be this:
The Republicans will cancel the convention next week, as has been speculated, because of Gustav. Maybe they can get Bobby Jindal to make an impassioned plea or something to make it believable. In the interim, Palin thanks John McCain and the nation profoundly, but says she cannot accept the nomination. She might even throw in that standard line of, "...to be with my family..." made all the more "heartwarming" by 24 hour coverage of her Downs baby and how committed of a mother she is. This, by the way, might have been part of the plan, as it may be used to generate her some political capital to shrug off Troopergate and launch a larger career.
Meanwhile, they put in the person they wanted all along (I'm not going to speculate on that here) and the "relief bounce" makes it more palatable. They will congratulate themselves for faking out everyone and their consultants will get bonuses.
It won't work, of course, because Obama's people are some of the sharpest and well organized I've ever seen, and react to things very quickly... but hey.