I know -- another Palin diary. However, I want to emphasize and discuss the underlying meaning of the phrase 'solidify the base.' It is one of those generalizations that obscures the strategic decision-making that led McCain to choose Sarah Palin. I also want to make the point that I don't believe choosing Palin has much, if anything, to do with reaching Hillary supporters
The nattering nabobs insist that the choice is evidence that "like Bush, McCain goes with his gut." But I don't think that is the case. It seems to me that there are sound reasons -- the three reasons cited in the subject line -- that are logically sound.
That is not to say that following the logic is not without risk. The rise and fall of Carly Fiorina shows how quickly even a sophisticated player can stumble. It is quite possible that Palin will make serious mis-steps along the way, but that potential eventuality awaits an unfolding future.
So let me build the logical case for why McCain chose Palin and why it poses a threat to Obama, below the fold...
Below is a blog from the current front page of www.redstate.com that
Blog post #1: Yes, we conservatives have sometimes questioned the decisions of Senator McCain. Yes, we have often grumbled about his candidacy as our nominee.
Today this ends.
In selecting Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his Vice Presidential running mate, Senator McCain has ensured America will make history this November.
And it will be by making Governor Palin the first woman to serve as Vice President of the United States.
Unlike the Democrats’ false stereotypes of our party, Governor Palin is a Republican parent of young children who daily experiences the joys and challenges American families. Governor Palin is modern American mom pursuing her family’s happiness. She lives it. She gets it. And she will be an historic and effective Vice President of the United States. Her conservative credentials are impeccable: she is pro-life; pro-second amendment; pro-traditional marriage; pro-tax relief; pro-energy; and, yes, she has exposed and smashed government corruption, and opposes earmarks – like the "bridge to nowhere" she refused to accept.
Blog post #2: I cannot tell you how excited I am about the Palin pick. McCain lived up to his maverick reputation and did well.
It is time to pony up to the campaign. Sure, we're still going to have to put up with some of McCain's McCainisms. Let's just get used to it. But, he's proven he listens to us. Today he puts us on the trajectory toward victory.
These quotes make my points about the meaning of 'solidifying the base,' which are that this is a pick that will provide fervor, funds, and feet to the McCain campaign.
Consider the problems faced by the McCain campaign two days ago. It generated no excitement. In the short-term, there was going to be a dull, droning convention that would provide a stark contrast to the Denver blast. The only way there would be any buzz would have been to focus on Obama, bigfooting their own substantive messaging, however small and weak the messages might have been.
In the long-term, conservatives, particularly social conservatives, might have pulled the lever for McCain, but they were not going to be excited about it and they weren't going to expend any energy or money for him. In one stroke, the Palin VP choice has gone far to solve these problems.
The fervor is clear from the blog posts, above. Donations are a lesser problem for McCain, as the Republicans can always count on their cash-rich interest groups to take care of the money side of the campaign.
The key here, I think, is the feet. The McCain campaign must have felt truly desperate about the social conservatives' lack of interest in his election. They can't expect the country club Republicans to turn out in the droves needed for precinct-level work -- door knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts -- even with their well-organized effort to fundamentalist churches.
The reason for the desperation is well-founded: Obama's strength lies in two areas, his ability to generate enthusiasm and his ground game. These are the two advantages that, in my view, won Obama the nomination. He beat Hillary on the stump and he beat her badly on the ground. I wouldn't give his campaign an edge in debate performances, media handling, or messaging -- I'm sorry, but I don't see much of a spark from the Obama campaign in any of these activities.
So I think that the ground efforts were the real great challenge to the McCain campaign. For the first time in a long time, Dem GOTV efforts were going outpace the Repubs precinct-level capability. Putting Sarah Palin on the ticket solves that problem -- the social conservatives will get blisters on their feet going door-to-door on her behalf. They'll flood the McCain with small donations, which at least look good. And they'll look and sound like excited, energetic partisans.
As a result, the McCain campaign does not need to have Palin contribute to the wider campaign. They need only send her to preach to the choir -- to solidify the base. It will be up to McCain to draw the independence, perhaps emphasizing the reform record of Palin. But she does not need to make that case herself. If she just spends the next two and a half months visiting churches and sending out DVDs, she will have done her job.
Perhaps there are alternative analyses that support other conclusions. But assuming for the moment that this analysis makes sense and that she doesn't crash and burn on the stump, then the Palin pick poses a very real threat to the Obama campaign. We must address it, in the form of supporting Obama with all three levels -- fervor, funds, and feet.
On the staff side, the Obama really does need to sharpen it's messaging. Obama's speech at the convention is a sign that they are going to do so and I hope they mean it. They're going to need all the strategic smarts they can summon if we are to win this election.
I also want to add a cautionary note about stupidity. Democrats always attack Republican candidates for being stupid and clueless. My sense is that they are rather proud of these qualities. And they certainly resent this type of attack, pointing to Reagan's success as how baseless the Democrat elitists' opinions are. (I know, I know...I'm just giving you the anecdotal results of conversations I have with Repubs).
I believe that Palin's presence on the ticket is an event we ignore at our peril. In my view (again assuming she doesn't slip and fall), she poses a very real challenge to us.