For what it's worth, my theory on the RNC and the response to Gustav is as follows (and yes I know lots of people have stated some of these things - I am not claiming originality just expressing the whole as I see it):
(and a final thought on the example of Mohammed Ali fighting Henry Cooper)
EDIT: thanks for rescuing the diary - much appreciated
EDIT II: oh come on, am i the only person who sees this "satellite" acceptance speech as a way for McCain to video tape his speech to get the best performance they can muster down on film
EDIT III: wow the CNN folks are really pushing this sports score version of the Hurricane (which campaign can rustle up the most volunteers)
As is probably known to anyone who interacts recently with a Fox News Republican - those brain-washed cultists that provide the aggressive vanguard of the Republican/Conservative "movement" as opposed to those from the same coalition who are somewhat less rabid - these Fox News types really are not a focused and well co-ordinated in their talking points as usual... the Obama speech really did sort of threw everything off balance.
Sure they have their attack lines but there's an obvious winging-it element to their diatribes at the moment, and if there's one thing that these folks are not strong on it's autonomous thinking.
And I think what we are seeing is basically a panic response to that with the blessing of a god-sent fig leaf to hide behind in Gustav.
Because here's what happens, has happened or is happening:
- no Bush or Cheney at the RNC
- abbreviated convention with less going on, the whole thing toned down and fewer speeches so not tying this disastrous Republican brand to McCain
- fewer shots of rabid activists baying for Obama's blood
- the Romney/Pawlenty issues go away... as far as I can tell they are so pissed that they are not keen on doing a Clinton and being standard bearers for McCain at this... well they can now ditch their speeches or re-position them out of prime time
- McCain can avoid being seen too much at the RNC alongside cutaway shots to less popular folks
- the Lieberman issue may even be ditched (as his place is far less valuable to all concerned now)
- if there's less convention more time will be given over to right wing talking heads pushing talking points which is far better for them than the disastrous speeches that were expected
- they get to do a fundraiser then use it for messaging
- idiots like Wolf Blitzer get to completely gloss over the strategic and tactical reasons for this and push the not-remotely-credible line that Republicans are doing this for the best of reasons without actually following that to it's logical conclusion (the reason that the Republicans might feel they have to do this is because they are tied to the disaster in Katrina which is symbolic of the wholesale failure of the entire Republican agenda)
- no longer a comparison to be made between McCain's speech and Obama's (McCain will be toning down out of 'respect' not because he is just not as smart or capable) and no comparison between the 80,000 who showed up for Obama and McCain's anemic audience (McCain will not be comfortable with a big show at such a serious time not less popular than Obama)
The whole thing is bollox. These idiots don't give a damn about the likely victims of any hurricane they are doing this because their entire gameplan has been blown apart by the success of the DNC and Obama's speech. They are scrambling desperately.
But a final thought. Throughout my childhood Henry Cooper was an institution in Britain. People over here hardly know who he is, but in Britain he was a hero alongside any popular sportman of the day. All because in the 60's he fought and lost to Mohammed Ali. What he's particularly famed for is that he knocked down Ali. Ali was floored and momentarily shaky. His cornerman later admitted that he cut the laces on Ali's gloves to create a need for an extension to the break between rounds to give Ali an extra rest while they fixed the gloves. The rests is history - Ali recovered and took over the fight and beat Cooper, who went on to become the beloved icon back home he ended up being.
So it's worth caution. This may be them cutting their laces, as Obama did floor them. But we have to be careful of this pause giving them an opening and time to recover.
The RNC would have been a disaster for them - one of the best advertisements for the Obama campaign would have been that - and tying Bush to McCain in the most obvious of fora. They've ducked this in a cynical way that will win them kudos from the idiocracy of talking heads who drive the narrative.
We have to make sure when they get up from that corner we knock them down again. And again. Till November when Obama and Biden knock them out for the count.