Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 35 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole rack of ribs! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
In the seat of heat today, one of the most important states of them all! Today, Missouri, WE will show YOU!
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
Missouri is a vital, vital state second only to Ohio in importance, and that only by dint of size. In my opinion it is the epitome of the swing state, the most closely divided in the nation, and if you ranked all the states from left to right politically, the Show Me state would be solidly #25 or 26. It is the home of such tough, outspoken American heroes as Mark Twain, Harry Truman, and Richard Gephardt. It has voted for the declared winner in every Presidential election since I was born. It a hugely diverse state, partly urban, partly suburban, partly rural, with both red and blue islands, a large sea of purple, a little rust belt, a little farm belt, a little Bible belt, and a firm center rooted in what Twain and I just call "Big River country", the politically moderate stretch that flows from east Minnesota to East Arkansas, and from West Wisconsin to Memphis TN.
Starting in the Bush years, Missouri took a temporary rightward tilt, and it is critical that we act to correct it at a time when the GOP President and the GOP Governor have soured middle America on the Republican brand. Some few despair trolls have suggested that Missouri is just to conservative for Democrats, and we should abandon it to the GOP, along with about 20 other red states. Seems to me, if you’re saying a Democrat can’t win Missouri, you’re saying a Democrat can’t win America.
Missouri may not be where YOU are, but it’s where the political center is, in America. Move Missouri, and you move the center. Leave Missouri to rot and you’re abandoning not just Missouri but a plurality of the country.
I hope I’ve gotten across how important I think Missouri is. Ignore it at your peril, or nurture it carefully and do what it takes to win over the show-me heartland, and WIN! We cannot afford NOT to carry Missouri.
BLOGS: At least two good ones—and an all-important state like Missouri needs at least two: Fired up Missouri and Show Me Progress.
http://www.firedupmissouri.com/
http://blog.showmeprogress.com/
PRESIDENT: There are other important races downticket, but this one is part of Obama’s firewall. Win here and Ohio and Florida can disappoint us again and we’ll still go to the White House. (I’m calling Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia and Nevada the firewall states in which Obama would be wise to compete as if he MUST win them all, even though he could lose some and still get elected. IN, FL, NC, MT, ND, AK and any other red states are in front of the firewall playing offense duty, while the 21 states carried by Kerry and/or Gore are behind it). At this stage in the game, Obama must spend about 60% of his resources in the five firewall states plus maybe NC, IN and FL; maybe 30% reaching out to other, redder states, and no more than 10% shoring up the blue states.
Frankly, with two months left in the cycle, I wouldn’t mind if Obama spent as much as two weeks in this state, going all out for it. It’s that important. Only Ohio is more vital than Missouri in the electoral math for President, not just in 2008, but in general.
This is one of several swing states (Ohio, Colorado, and Florida were others) where Republican Secretaries of State engineered Diebold voting machines, insufficient numbers of machines in minority districts resulting in long waits, and other dirty tricks to force the state Republican in 2004, and which now have Democratic Secretaries of State, making rigging the system for the GOP more unlikely. So fight hard but take hope. At least some of the vote counters are our friends this time around.
SENATE: None up this cycle. Superstar Claire McCaskill took one in 2006, and Gooper Christopher Bond is up in 2010, when he’s on the list of the vulnerable.
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: The open Governor’s race between Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and US Rep Kenneth "Kenny Boy"Hulshof (R) is the most important Governor’s race in 2008, and also THE BIG ONE for Missouri. With both houses of the legislature in GOP hands, we MUST MUST MUST get back the Governorship to stave off another round of gerrymandering the state legislature and the Congressional districts.
Fortunately, it’s not going to be too hard. Outgoing Governor Matt Blunt seriously screwed up the state and they’ve got some serious buyer’s remorse. Missouri is on the top of everyone’s list of states likely to flip Governors (In some cases, the ONLY one on the list, although Indiana is still doable and Washington can’t be taken for granted. All the others are apparently safe for the incumbent party). Yet another reason for Obama to campaign hard here, as coattails can do nothing but help here.
(And no, our candidate is not related to THAT Nixon)
Note that normally I focus on a "reach" race as "The Big One", bypassing a potentially bigger pickup that may be easier, like when I picked NM-02 as the big one for New Mexico instead of the Udall Senate race, and IL-10 instead of the more likely IL-11. The Missouri Governor, however, is VITAL!
http://www.jaynixon.com/...
Other statewide Democratic races include Sam Page running for Lt. Governor against the GOP incumbent; Robin Carnahan seeking re-election as Secretary of State; State Rep. Clint Zweifel going for the open State Treasurer’s post, and State Senator Chris Koster (formerly GOP) for the AG spot that Nixon is vacating.
http://www.sampage.com/...
http://www.carnahanformissouri.com/...
http://www.clintfortreasurer.com/
http://chriskoster.com/
STATE LEGISLATURE:
House of Representatives: 71D, 92R. Deficit of 21 seats, need eleven to flip.
Senate: 14D, 20R. Deficit of 6 seats, need three to tie, four to flip.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—St. Louis. Lacy Clay, Safe Dem. The bluest district in Missouri.
http://lacyclay.house.gov/
District 2—Suburban St. Louis, the "drawn to be red" district. Todd Akin (Inc R) v. Bill Haas (D). Haas is a former member of the St. Louis School Board. Not on the map.
http://www.votebillhaas.com/
District 3—Suburban St. Louis, the "drawn to be blue" district formerly held by Dick Gephardt. Russ Carnahan (Inc D) is safe.
http://www.russcarnahan.com/...
District 4— West-central Missouri, the farmbelt district. Ike Skelton (Inc. D) is Representative for life, although it will be an interesting day here when he retires. Safe Dem.
http://www.skeltonforcongress.com/
District 5—Kansas City. Emmanuel Cleaver (Inc D). Safe Democrat. Cleaver is facing a rematch against the guy who lost badly to him last time around.
http://www.house.gov/...
District 6— Northwest Missouri and KC suburbs. Kay Barnes(D) v. Samuel Graves (Inc R). This one is a very promising pickup opportunity and is on everyone’s radar. Barnes is a very popular former KC Mayor, whose recruitment was touted as a big feather in Van Holland’s cap. Graves, in his part, is looking increasingly desperate. The race so far has been marked by a couple of extremely low-class, low budget ads by the Graves campaign, pretending that Barnes has "San Francisco values" as exemplified by a couple of actors dressed up as punk kids dancing. These ads probably backfired on Graves. A great contribution choice for pragmatists who want more and better Democrats.
http://www.kay4congress.com/
District 7—Southwest Missouri, including Springfield. The nastiest, reddest corner of the state, with more in common with the South than with the Midwest. Very hard to win, but the Democrats have found a candidate who is a good fit for the district, army veteran Richard Monroe.
http://www.monroeforcongress.com/
District 8— Southeast Missouri, including the bootheel. Joe Allen(D) v. Jo Emerson (Inc R). Allen is a good progressive. The race is not on the map for now, but those of you who want purity might consider trying to put it there.
http://allen4congress.com/
District 9—Northeast Missouri, including Hannibal and the upper part of the Miss. River border. Probably the most swing district in the most swing state, skewed to the right in recent elections but currently OPEN and vital. Our candidate is State Rep. Judy Baker, who has a decent chance against the Republicans’ failed State treasurer candidate whose name looks like "Lutefisk" or something. This district may disappear after two terms, but it’s still important for reasons discussed in redistricting below.
http://judybakerforcongress.com/
REDISTRICTING MISSOURI: This is largely pie in the sky dreaming, since it’s unlikely we’ll get to run the table on redistricting, but it’s possible; bad feelings about Governor Blunt might well cause a big backlash towards the Democrats. The assumption is that, if Missouri loses a district, it will be the 9th, which is contiguous to five other districts, will have one of the least senior members in the state, and is the last numbered district to boot.
Start with the Seventh, which will be the one to concentrate the Republicans in the reddest part of the state. To help the neighboring 4th and 8th, the new 7th should go no farther north than Barton, Dade, Polk, Webster and Laclede counties in the 4th district (possibly not even including those), and should head east as much as possible, to West Plains, or even to Carter and Ripley Counties if the population numbers will allow it.
The 5th should expand to the south and east, into the reddest available part of the 4th that borders the 5th. It will still be safe blue, and I’m trying to protect the 4th as much as possible, since Skelton may well retire during the next decade. Plus, if Barnes becomes Representative from the 6th, we can’t expand the 5th north much without putting Barnes into it or taking away many of the voters who know and love her best.
The 6th in turn should stretch straight east along the Iowa border, maybe two counties deep.
And the 1st and 3rd should divide those St. Louis suburbs that are now in the 2nd between them. Both are blue enough to absorb them without much trouble.
That makes one safe Republican district and four safe Democratic districts, with the mainly rural rest of Missouri to be divided up among the new 2nd, 4th and 8th. Whoever wins the 9th this year could end up forced into a contest with Akin or Skelton or Emerson, and we’d have a choice of making all three districts competitive or making one district safe Democrat and the other two strongly Republican. Either the westernmost part of the 8th, or the southernmost part of the 4th could be lopped off into the new 7th and become more blue that way, or we could lop off a little bit from both and make both the 8th and 4th still pinkish.
If Judy Baker wins the 9th this year, I would lean towards putting her and Akin together in a district that protects her as much as possible, Emerson’s district safe R, and leaving the rest to Skelton’s district, and let the chips fall where they may should he retire. That would leave us starting the decade with 6D, 2R. If Baker loses, then shore up the Skelton district as much as possible and have a safer 5-3 delegation.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series:
Delaware: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland: http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one: http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin: http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma: http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska: http://www.dailykos.com/...