On the day John McCain introduced Governor Palin to the public, Governor Palin insisted on treating her private life as a political matter. She wanted the nation's voters to know that her son was headed off to Iraq and his decision was consistent with her personal support for the war. She wanted us to know that she was a a 'hockey' mom who thought the PTA was as important as balancing a state budget. She said she was a pro-life, family values person and proved it by sharing her personal decision to have five kids and not aborting her last kid even after she knew it would be a handicapped child. At the time she didn't share the information that her oldest daughter was pregnant and would soon marry the child's father. Had she done so, she could easily have justified it as yet more evidence that her children's choices reflect her personal, political beliefs. She could have said that her daughter's decision to keep the baby and marry the father was a good example of her pro-life positions. For now right wing culture warriors have embraced her candidacy and poured money into McCain's campaign. See below the fold for what is ahead for Palin and her support among wingnuts.
Tom Pettigrew, a pretty good Harvard sociologist who studied racial prejudice and the resentments of the white working class, took a close look at the career of Louise Day Hicks, the face of South Boston, Irish Catholic opposition to forced busing back in the 1970's. Hicks was a white working class folk hero who really knew how to 'give it to' the liberal media and elitist politicians who were trying to ram integrated schools down the throats of lower income whites living in Boston neighborhoods like Dorchester and South Boston. She became a 'freak flag' white conservatives could wave in protest to all the stuff white liberals and their black friends were doing to them. Yet despite her popularity, she lost in her bid to become the city's Mayor and had to 'settle' for one-term in Congress representing her people.
If she had collected every single anti-busing available in Boston at the time, she would have elected Mayor. Pettigrew studied the mayoral elections and found that her supporters used her to deliver a protest message, but they didn't think she was 'classy' enough to be their mayor. They liked her rude/crude style for giving it to the man, but they didn't want her embarrassing them at high level political events when she would be called upon to represent the city. They loved her up to a point and no further.
Palin looks to be a similar kind of political figure. She gives white cultural conservatives political red meat when it comes to abortion politics and family values. The only thing that would make her better would be if she came from a southern state and showed a little tendency toward race-baiting, or if she came a state with a large Hispanic population and she showed a strong anti-immigrant bias. Otherwise, she is a perfect rally monkey for conservative wingnuts. The more the MSM calls attention to her down scale, small town family life style, the more fervent her support among evangelicals and conservative culture warriors.
The problem is that wingers may like her as a protest symbol, but she is already past the point of being someone they'd like to see in the White House representing them. She is a little too much Billie Carter and not enough Jimmie Carter.
If it were only the pregnant daughter, or only the five kids, or only the state trooper brother-in-law who 'tased' his kids, or only the AIP story, it'd be okay. The problem is the combination of what's already come out and what will come out next.
Items:
- We haven't had a chance to meet the teenage dad, Levi, the ice hockey star, or his family. That's gotta be a story.
- If Bristol and Levi get married before the election, there goes that day's news cycle.
- There is a reason Cindy McCain is almost always at McCain's side. She too is a cultural warrior. She reminds some conservatives of Nancy Reagan and the good old days of a First Lady who really knew how to dress and look good. Family values for the rich and famous. With Palin at his side - in her red shoes and frumpy outfits - the daily reminder that this is what a McCain White House would look like ruins all the hard work Cindy has done with the Nancy Reagan voters. If he starts leaving Palin out of the picture and continues to just campaign with Cindy, that's a slap to the Palin voter. If he campaigns with both of them - well, that starts to look creepy.
- It is the job of every teenager to rebel against their parents. A pregnancy is off the charts in this department. Whatever mom-daughter, daughter-parents conflicts the Palin's have got going, they now have a national stage for showcasing them. An entire industry will devote itself to reading the body language of the Palins at public events.
- It won't help if Biden, Obama and the Democrats start running ads that emphasize Obama's life story as the son who of teenage mom who turned out fine. It gives the pro-life crowd the same story they like about Palin without the debris.
Unless McCain can figure out a way to drop Palin from the ticket fairly quickly, he will lose control over his political campaign. If she stays he will be embraced by cultural conservatives. For a while it will look like a net win for him as they rally round her. For a while it will look as though Palin is teflon-coated. As her family life becomes more complicated before our eyes the more protective and vocal her supporters will become. Then after sweeping the McCain campaign along on this tide of support, the Louise Day Hicks effect will kick in and there will be no sale on election day.