In contemplation I think the Palin pick is the start of an attempt to shape the coming GE.
McCain, or whoever makes decisions for him now, could have gone in two ways. He could have picked someone moderate, someone nearer the center of American politics, Pawlenty for example, and fought for the middle ground. This would have done very little to energize the die-hard social conservatives and under this scenario he would be working against a candidate who has managed to appeal to the moderates fairly well as of late. Right before Palin a large turn out this year at the polls would nearly guarantee Obama the win, and given his ground game and his use of texting to communicate I think there would be a large turnout.
Or, McCain could go they way he did and pick a candidate that will energize the base, but has great potential to alienate the middle ground. Why would he do that?
Because, I think, there is going to be a great push to disgust the middle ground with the whole process. McCain doesn't want them to vote, he wants the election to come down to the rabid base on the right and left. What better way to do that than to go full bore negative? Hell, he just hired the fellow that smeared him on 2000. The hard core supporters will get out to vote no matter what, which is what they want, and what they only want. Suddenly a decent turn out means the churches have mobilized and are pushing their parishioners out to vote, and as much as Obama appeals to many Christians, no one mobilizes like a flock of embittered social conservatives.
The GE will not be about empowering people to vote, it will be about pissing people off regarding government.
WE are going to vote, but will Joe Schmo who has just been told 8 weeks running that government is evil and will never change no matter what?