After last night’s speech, I understand why many of you will disagree with my suggestions in this diary. Governor Palin’s speech last night caught many of us off guard to a degree and made our blood boil to say the least. Not that any of us didn’t know that the media would eat it up after the fact (which they obviously did...Halperin gave it an A+...big surprise), but the use of Palin as an attack dog seemed to come on much stronger than many anticipated.
Let me first analyze how I think the McCain Campaign wants to use Governor Palin in the next two months. The plan of attack seems to be the following: Palin will be used to energize the GOP base and lock up the Evangelical vote that had come into question a bit (although, I’m sure that may have been overrated personally). I think they will also use Palin in an effort to appeal to the white working class voters that Obama has had trouble appealing to in particular states. (and yes, I do realize this blanket term is thrown around way too much and that he does very well with this group in many parts of the country a la Wisconsin, Iowa, and the like) Why do you think Palin made so many references to battleground states last night in her speech? They will use her to appeal to voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even some western states where her roots might have some appeal to a degree. Also, she will be used as the stereotypical VP attack dog. The McCain camp knows all too well that the Obama Campaign has to be very careful when attacking Palin or they may be perceived as ‘sexist’ or as bullies if it isn't done with the right amount of nuance.
So, how should the Obama Campaign deal with Palin? I say ignore her as much as possible for the following reasons:
- The media is already asking and waiting to receive a variety of answers from Governor Palin. Be it trooper gate, pork, church issues, or even family issues...there are mysteries about this woman and they will need to be answered in the next month. Leave it to folks like us and the media to do the digging. I imagine they are already starting to get upset that she hasn't been giving interviews or pressers...so the time to start answering questions will come soon. Also remember though that as we learned (and seem to continue to learn) with Obama...there were/are plenty of things on the internet about him that are not true. Now, some of the things we are uncovering right now about Governor Palin are most certainly true, but let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that every single thing we read about in the next couple of weeks is entirely true OR entirely provable. Let’s let the media figure out what is credible and what isn’t. Is that a risk? Obviously, yes. However, if the Obama camp starts making claims that are shot down or can’t be proved it will be used against him and add to the ‘sexism’ charges that are sure to continue to come.
- This election is about Barack Obama and John McCain. VP selections generally have little to do with the overall outcome when all is said and done and we should keep that in mind. The Obama Campaign should continue to focus its attention on tying McCain to Bush and on its ability to harness an economic message that appeals to the masses. Too much focus on Palin takes away from these two things...and in my opinion...takes away from our chances at winning this election. If this election is about Obama vs. McCain...I give Obama the nod hands down. Let’s not muddle it any more than it has to be. McCain=Bush...McCain=Bush...McCain=Bush...tax cuts for the majority of Americans...tax cuts for the majority of Americans...are you better off now than you were eight years ago? You get the idea...
- Leave the major attacking to female surrogates. Ignore her yes, but some things will need to be responded to. Easier said than done, but I think the Obama Campaign should limit its most harsh attacks of Palin to its female surrogates. Obviously, Hillary is best suited for this role if she is willing to grasp it and I see her as a more effective attack dog than Palin. Attacks from males will be seen, and maybe even sometimes rightfully so, as sexist and the media will eat that stuff up. Let’s not feed the fire here...play it smart.
- The VP debate. Whether Biden is nice to Palin or not is not the issue at the debate. On matters of foreign policy, it isn’t even close. All Biden needs to do is demonstrate his clear advantage over Palin in this area...maybe even challenge Palin a time or two in ways without bullying but do suggest that he is about a hundred times more capable of running this country’s foreign affairs than she is. I think Biden can pull this off and he should do it with that big grin on his face. So far, I think he has done a good job of complimenting Palin and not risking too much as the campaign decides how to deal with her and develops a Palin strategy. Use the sharp knives on McCain and Bush, not on Palin.
- The independents. If both bases are fired up, the Dems still have the advantage this year as Nate Silver has mentioned in many of his posts...but if Obama wins the independents, McCain has no chance at winning this thing. The Obama Campaign should stick to its general message of Change and a new way of conducting politics. This means abstaining from attacking a green politician like Palin, but instead, respectfully disagreeing with her on the issues that really matter. McCain will no doubt try and move to the center tonight to appeal to this group. Palin locks up the base and McCain tries to win over the indies...it's pretty obvious. However, Obama will continue to win them over if he makes the argument about McCainBush - Obama. No muddling. No Palin.
- The Culture War. Palin may be used to ignite the all too annoying culture war yet again. Let’s not let ourselves get pulled into more of this bullshit. It helps the GOP win practically every time. His campaign has stayed above this for the most part and I think it is a winning strategy after eight years of Bush and a divided America...not to mention it is an essense of his movement. Keep appealing to a new kind of politics and make sure the media narrative stays on Obama vs. McCain...not more hyperbole.
Thoughts? Opinions? How do you think the Obama Campaign should deal with Governor Palin? Please share...