The latest Howey Gauge is 45-43 for McCain
7% 18-29 23% 30-44 25% 45-59 34% 60+
51% female 49% male
8% AA 1% Hisp and 90% White
CNN Exit poll from 2004:
14% 18-29 33% 30-44 30% 45-59 23% 60+
52% female 48% male
7% AA 3% Hisp 89% White
They cut the youth vote in half and added a third to the older voters.
Also, I think it's a little conservative on the minority turnout. I can't imagine that African American turnout would be at only 8%. And I can't imagine hispanic participation dropping from 3 to 1 percent.
Overall, I think more than anything else, we need to look at basic demographics.
The two most reliable truths in this election are the young/old divide and the black turnout increase.
If this poll is accurate on data and we simple look at demographics, I think Indiana is in play.