Hurricane Ike blasted the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas yesterday. It also came near enough to Haiti to compound their misery. Now, late yesterday into the overnight hours, Ike is slamming Cuba. He (sorry, I know of you don't like the male/female pronouns I use for these storms - habit) has now been over Cuba for about 10 hours, as of this writing (mid-morning Monday). The good news for people in his future path is that this is taking quite a toll on the storm... Ike is down to a Category 2 storm and will likely drop to Category 1 sometime today. The bad news, he's raking nearly the entire length of Cuba; moreover, he seems likely to recover - at least somewhat - once emerging from Cuba (likely early tomorrow, but because he's nearly paralleling the coast, estimating the time of his re-emergence into water is quite tricky). So, the big question now is, where will that final landfall be? Well, let's get to it...
Confidence remains marginal to low as the final landfall remains about five days away (most likely on Saturday); five day forecasts typically have errors on the order of hundreds of miles. That link goes to the official NHC track error page... you'll see that at day five (120hrs) the error is about 220 nautical miles. That's about 250 "normal" (statute) miles. Along the Gulf Coast, at 30-degree north latitude that's about 4-degrees of longitude. So, it's really not horrible, but it's not tremendous either. Basically, at this time frame you can only expect the forecast to give you some general idea where a storm might be. And that's about where we stand this morning.
The model guidance is giving us a little more confidence, but also continues to frustrate. For those that read yesterday's afternoon update you'll recall the the model guidance trended westward, more towards the upper Texas coast. Typically, universal model trends like this indicate that the models are "seeing" something better now. However, we've seen them bound back an forth so many times that after yesterday's shift west, I was unwilling to put any stock in that. Good thing... the overnight model runs have shifted back east. Still, confidence on the general landfall region is increasing as the models were, at least, consistent in pointing to the same general area as they have for a few days now... between Pensacola, FL and the upper Texas coast. But the bulk of the model guidance has definitely shifted eastward this morning. Here's the latest track map of the models:
As always, there is some info not contained on that map... some updated model guidance, some not included, some data beyond day five (that plot goes only to day 5). The early morning GFS (AVNO), GFDL and HWRF have, for example, shifted somewhat to the west. The GFS is out near Beaumont/Port Aurthur, TX - though it shows a stall (which I don't buy), delaying landfall until Tuesday. Meanwhile the new GFDL and HWRF aim for central Louisiana on Saturday (the HWRF leaning east a bit, as it has a last minute nudge to the east of north). The early morning NOGAPS (NGPS) agrees with the HWRF and GFDL, with a central Louisiana Saturday landfall. The UK model (EGRR on that plot) continues to be one of the further south, but does have a turn north beyond day five, towards an upper Texas coast landfall on Sunday. The Euro model, not on that plot, shows landfall near the TX/LA border Saturday.
FYI, I began composing this prior to the aforementioned early morning models being available. So, actually, there is even more agreement. Nonetheless, it's just one additional run. So, I wouldn't say that confidence has boosted greatly based on this. But, clearly, the model guidance is narrowing down the threat down to a region between Galveston and central Louisiana. But, they are only models and, once again the standard reminder that errors are on the order of hundreds of miles this far out.
So, bottom line... the models are converging and confidence is increasing, but it remains far, far, far from a sure bet where Ike is headed. Though the models have converged and they've been consistent on the general range, they have not been consistent on the specifics. This could easily shift over to New Orleans, or even Mobile, AL, or shift down towards Corpus Christi, TX or beyond. So, it remains an "all interests in the Gulf need to stay alert" situation. But I do think we are beginning to see things come into focus.
So, what about Ike's intensity. Well, here's a recent satellite image of him:
This was a few hours ago. Ike was beginning to lose his eye as he weakens over land. The Camaguey, Cuba radar confirms this:
Unfortunately, that radar image is also old, as the Camaguey radar seems to be down - a likely result of Ike. However, a more recent loop from Pilon, Cuba
can be found here. If you click on that radar loop you'll see that Ike has weakened dramatically.
...however, there is one concern. His lack of significant northward component of motion may mean that he comes offshore, off the south coast of Cuba, much sooner than expected. That may allow Ike to re-intensify sooner and more than previously expected. Worse yet, for the folks in Cuba, it would still be hammering the coastline while doing that. Our best hope is that enough of the circulation stays over land to prevent significant re-intensification. Regardless, whenever he gets north of Cuba and into the Gulf, he is expected to intensify. This is what the intensity models show:
...no real change from the discussions of the past couple of days. The "best" models, like the GFDL, completely agree on Ike dropping to a minimal hurricane while over Cuba, then rebounding to a minimal Category 3 over the Gulf of Mexico before fading to about a Category 2 (this plot shows even a Cat 1, but the new GFDL was more like a Cat 2) at landfall.
This is in line with what these models have been showing, what we've discussing on here, and what the National Hurricane Center has been predicting. So..... bottom line with the intensity is no real change... still expecting Ike to be around a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be shocked if he makes it to Cat 4 at some point in the Gulf, especially if he comes offshore of Cuba much sooner than expected. But I don't think this has a major impact on landfall intensity. Of course, keep in mind that intensity forecasts five days in advance are subject to large errors.
Final word on this for this morning, still lots of caveats and "what ifs" for the final landfall. Still just too far out. But things do appear to be coming together. So, as we progress through the next few days, we can expect higher and higher confidence in the forecast.
And I often, erroneously, forget to give credit where credit is due... so, in closing, here are some references:
The fine model plots come from Allan Huffman's weather page.
The satellite imagery comes from the Satellite Services Division in NOAA/NESDIS.
The Cuban radar imagery comes from the Cuban Meteorological Institute.
And since I failed to include the NHC official forecast, as I always do, please go to their web site, and remember that they are the official word on these storms.
...sorry, no time to proof read again... work calls...
UPDATED 2:30PM EDT ...I'll keep this update short and sweet since we've been vaporized from the rec list, so I don't know how many people will see this. But I do know some folks have "subscribed", so I wanted to be sure to update on the latest real-time information and guidance.
First, the real-time trends with Ike. Unfortunately, he's rolled just off the south coast of Cuba. The result is that Ike is already showing signs of re-strengthening. Nothing dramatic as of this update, but any restrengthening is bad while Ike was supposed to be over land weakening. Instead, he's intensifying or at least holding his own, readying for a second strike on Cuba. This will also mean a stronger Ike coming into the Gulf (stronger than previously expected, not stronger, necessarily, than the current NHC forecast, as they've already tried to account for Ike coming offshore - to some degree, anyway). That may also lead to a stronger peak intensity - though NHC doesn't show this (yet) in the Gulf. That, however, should not change the U.S. landfall intensity, unless the peak intensity occurs so late that there's not enough time for "spin-down". That's the only piece of good news... this push to the strong side now, will not necessarily equal a stronger landfall.
As for the track guidance... shifting around yet again. Seems like we go back and forth with every model run. We went west in the overnight runs, then east in the early morning runs, and, now, most models trended west for the midday model runs. The American model (GFS) is now down just south of Corpus Christi with landfall. The UK is also down near Corpus. The GFDL has landfall near Galveston. The HWRF is similar, but perhaps a bit south of Galveston. The Canadian landfalls near Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX. The NOGAPS is near Houston, or a shade north. Finally, the new Euro, just in has landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, TX . All have landfall, roughly, around Saturday.
So, the general bulk of solutions has shifted to between Corpus Christi, TX and the TX/LA border. A definite, albeit not huge, shift west. With that, all I can do is re-emphasize the degree of uncertainty this far out. You'd think that the models would not make wholesale shifts like this, where they all shift in the same direction at once. But keep in mind what I wrote a few days ago about input data. Some critical features are just getting into the radiosonde network. With the smoothing that the models do in the initialization steps, it is likely that these features, once entering the network, are too flat in virtually all models. So, when they enter the network, the models "see" the feature better and all respond similarly. This does not mean, necessarily, that they'll continue to trend in this direction as more of the feature enters the network. Other features entering the network could complicate things. So, again, let's not assume that we've either settled on Corpus to Port Arthur or that we'll continue to see the southwest shift. All in the Gulf should maintain their alert for this storm. And just know that the region of the northwest Gulf seems to be the "favored" area.
That's all for now.