Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 37 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole BBQ plate! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
It's back to Dixie for us today, for a look at the Palmetto State: South Carolina!
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
South Carolina is politically odd. On some paper, it looks winnable, and on other paper it looks insurmountable. But this is the 50-state strategy, and we should see what we can do.
Politically, SC has a lot in common with the Kansas described by Tom Frank’s What’s the Matter with Kansas? in that the primary political forces include the populist poor drawn into voting for the neoconservative agenda, coupled with more well-to-do folks who are uncomfortable with the religious right but who have an agenda protecting their privilege. Frank wrote that the second group might be ripe for joining with the Democratic party, but that if it did, that Democratic party would no longer be the party of broad prosperity, but one of libertarianism and protection of the rich men’s agenda. In South Carolina, the heaviest concentration of the Republican populists is in the pointy, inland corner of the state, while the comfortable class (the ones descended from General Beauregard Jackson-Pickett Burnside and fiercely proud of it) become more plentiful the closer you get to the lowlands and the coast. Note that, in the 1980s, the SC delegation was 4-2 Democrat, and that during the 1990s it was the two inland districts that flipped to the Republicans, making it 4-2 the other way, and which have since seemed the more intractably Republican compared to the two districts that have been GOP to begin with, and which show the most potential to flip to the Democrats in the near future.
The party is divided along these lines, with the lowlanders supporting those few Republicans who still show a tad of independence, like Senator Lindsay Graham, who is not all that bad for a Southern Republican but who is still noxious compared to any Democrat, with the neocons wanting to primary Graham as a DINO. The neocons are the same stripe as the West Virginians and Kentuckyans who have been unalterably opposed to Obama throughout the entire election season, for reasons utterly unrelated to race, oh no no no.
BLOGS: South Carolina doesn’t appear to have one, the most populous state without a single-state blog. If you know of one that I’ve missed, please bring it to my attention. If you’re in the Palmetto state, think about starting one.
PRESIDENT: Likely McCain. When SurveyUSA polled all 50 states on Bush popularity, South Carolina was one of the first Southern states to repudiate Bush, surprising many. Also, Obama’s large win in South Carolina’s primary played a big part in keeping his campaign alive and kicking, and gave him momentum going into the Super Tuesday primary, where his follow-up wins gave him the lead over Clinton. These would seem to indicate that Obama would have a chance to win the state, along with neighboring swing states Georgia and especially North Carolina. And yet, all polling so far shows Obama without a prayer. If I were Obama, I would choose between a Big Sky strategy that reached for the Dakotas and Montana, or a Southern strategy that bet that the combination of high black turnout, Republican ambivalence about McCain and the willingness of some poor white Southerners to consider a Democrat in light of hard economic times might all boost Obama’s chnces of winning at least some Red Southern states. Even then, South Carolina, it seems, would not merit the same attention as GA, NC and MS.
SENATE: Lindsay Graham (Inc R) v. Bob Conley (D). Consistently off the map, despite being briefly considered as a potential in the event that Graham was primaried by Club for Growth, which didn’t happen. Conley, a former Republican is one of those sometimes loveable crackpots who provides some entertainment but little hope of making a real race.
http://aimhighwithbob.com/
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE:
None up this year. Of the many statewide offices in South Carolina, only the Superintendent of Education, Jim Rex, is a Democrat. Despite the moderate trend in the polls, we have our work cut out for us here.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
House of Representatives: 73R, 51D. Deficit of 22, 12 flips needed to take control.
Senate: 27R, 19D, deficit of 8, 5 flips needed to take control.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Linda Ketner (D) v. Henry Brown (Inc R). Coastal, upscale South Carolina.
I didn’t even know about this one until I went looking. HOLY COW, am I glad to have this woman on OUR side! She looks like she could knock an undecided voter down with her choice of a smile or a left hook, depending on what was called for. And look at her resume:
National Salute to Citizenship Award, South Carolina Woman of Valor Award, Girl Scout Woman of Distinction Award, and the South Carolina Housing Achievement Award. Also: The Malcolm D. Haven Award for Community Service, African American Life and History Trailblazer Award, SCHA Woman of the Year, YWCA Lifetime Achievement, Center for Women and Florence Crittenton Foundation Awards. She was awarded the NAACP J. Arthur Brown Award for Outstanding Service; NAACP Friend of Distinction Award, the Urban League Arthur J. Clement Award for Race Relations.
Dunno about you, but I feel humble. Do you think she requires sleep like other people, or does she just keep on going like an energizer rabbit?
I think I found THE BIG ONE for South Carolina in 2008. Please, go over and give Ketner what she needs to clobber Brown! I think she could be a Democratic powerhouse in the Kirsten Gillibrand mold. If not this year, then the year after that. Heck, we NEED to nurture Democrats like this. It’s what the 50-state strategy is all about.
http://www.lindaketner.com/
District 2—Rob Miller (D) v. Joseph Wilson (Inc R). Southwest SC, along the Georgia border and including Columbia and the Parris Island Marine Base. And yes, they found an Iraq war veteran to run in this district where the military is all-important. I didn’t get as many personal detais from his site as I did from Ketner’s, but it looks like he could make a sleeper out of it and do us proud if he got in.
This district and the 1st are the promising ones this year. Note that these are the two districts that were Republican before the Newtists, while the 3rd and 4th flipped in the 90s. The 1st and 2nd may be ripe for flipping now, and we have just the two candidates to do it.
Build the roots. Build the bench. Ketner and Miller prove that we have the candidates we need to take a supermajority of districts. The party needs to help them get what they need to win, even if it might take more than one election cycle to actually get them into office. Either of these two, if elected, has the potential to become a long-term powerhouse for the party—just like Newt did for the other side after losing one, two, three consecutive elections in a district everyone knew would never flip. And yet the party helped him get up and keep at it until he made it in and eventually helped to change an entire region. If they can do it, we can learn from their wins and do the same back at them.
UPDATE: Wow--check out the poll. 43 votes for Rob Miller in the poll compared to 4 for Ketner, 6 for Kos favorite Larry Kissel, and also-ran status for the rest of Dixie's TeamDemocrat. I'm impressed. And here I had assumed Ketner was the stronger candidate in the more flippable district. Those of you who turned out for Miller--any of you care to explain why he's the one to bet on? Grass roots support I don't know about? A lot of marines decided to read my diary today? The Second district gonna ride the wave? Obviously, I like both of them, but a poll turnout like this makes me curious. GO MILLER!
DOUBLE UPDATE: Look at the poll again: Later on, Ketner gets 206 votes, going way beyond Miller who has gotten to 70! And let's hear it for Ketner again!
Seems to me the word may have gone out to freep my poll, which rarely gets much attention under normal circumstances. I'm flattered.
Now listen--if every one of you who voted for Ketner and Miller goes over and donates whatever you can afford to either or both of them, then just maybe we'll see a "stunning upset"--or better yet, TWO of them, in the supposedly "solid red" Palmetto state, and America will get up to two potential rock stars for the party come 2009. They're young, they're energetic, they could live longer than Thurmond did and become Committee chairs for decades, and we'll be able to say we helped them get their foot in the door. Wouldn't that be great? Go get 'em!
http://www.robmillerforcongress.com/
District 3—Jane Dyer (D) v. J. Gresham Barrett (Inc R). The pointy, inland end, and a stretch of the Georgia border.Dyer is another military veteran, this time of the Air force. She’s right for the district and should get thanks from us, but I see little to no chance to win this time around.
http://www.janedyerforcongress.com/
District 4—Paul Corden (D) v. Robert Inglis (Inc R). Spartanburg and Greenville. Corden is another military veteran—Viet Nam, not Iraq. He’s the best we could have done in a hopeless district, and it’s good to have him chipping away at the GOP’s numbers.
http://www.cordenforcongress.com/...
District 5—John Spratt (Inc D). South Carolina’s "white blue" district, including most of the NC border and Rock Hill. Long term incumbent John Spratt easily survived the best that the repukes could throw at him last time around, and this time they’re only throwing token opposition. Safe Dem.
http://www.johnsprattforcongress.com/
District 6—Jim Clyburn (Inc D). Central South Carolina. A gerrymandered minority district and a safe seat for Pelosi’s majority whip.
http://majoritywhip.house.gov/
REDISTRICTING South Carolina: I’d like to see the 3rd and 4th concentrated right into the mountains, and the sixth divided into quarters, with one quarter each going into the four districts that are not the 3rd and 4th. However, I’m dreaming. Of the two houses of the legislature and the Governor, we might win one or even two by 2011, but the whole trifecta is out of reach.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...