Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/22/07 results)
Collins (R) 57 (56)
Allen (D) 38 (33)
I polled this back in October of last year, and seeing the bleak numbers, moved on to other races. This was an attempt to see if Allen had closed the gap in the past 10 months or so, and unfortunately, the answer appears to be "no".
These results are generally in line with the Pollster.com composite, which is Collins 54, Allen 41.1.
In the presidential, the state is still an Obama landslide, Obama 52, McCain 38. Full crosstabs below the fold.
MAINE POLL RESULTS - SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Maine Poll was conducted from September 8 through September 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the ?true? figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
Sample Figures
Men 287 48%
Women 313 52%
Dem 198 33%
Rep 162 27%
Ind 240 40%
18-29 102 17%
30-44 198 33%
45-59 193 32%
60+ 107 18%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Susan Collins? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
Very Very No
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Opinion
All 27% 38% 21% 8% 6%
Men 26% 36% 24% 9% 5%
Women 28% 40% 18% 7% 7%
Dem 20% 28% 32% 14% 6%
Rep 32% 46% 14% 4% 4%
Ind 30% 41% 16% 5% 8%
18-29 22% 36% 25% 10% 7%
30-44 32% 40% 18% 6% 4%
45-59 26% 37% 21% 8% 8%
60+ 28% 39% 20% 7% 6%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Allen? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
Very Very No
Fav Fav UnFav UnFav Opinion
All 22% 36% 22% 13% 7%
Men 19% 34% 26% 15% 6%
Women 25% 38% 18% 11% 8%
Dem 31% 48% 13% 5% 3%
Rep 14% 23% 35% 23% 5%
Ind 20% 35% 21% 13% 11%
18-29 27% 41% 17% 9% 6%
30-44 18% 32% 26% 17% 7%
45-59 24% 37% 20% 11% 8%
60+ 19% 34% 24% 15% 8%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tom Allen, the Democrat, and Susan Collins, the Republican?
COLLINS ALLEN UNDECIDED
All 57% 38% 5%
Men 59% 37% 4%
Women 55% 39% 6%
Dem 38% 59% 3%
Rep 78% 16% 6%
Ind 59% 36% 5%
18-29 53% 42% 5%
30-44 60% 36% 4%
45-59 57% 38% 5%
60+ 58% 36% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of? John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate?
OBAMA MCCAIN OTHER UNDECIDED
All 52% 38% 4% 6%
Men 48% 43% 6% 3%
Women 56% 33% 2% 9%
Dem 83% 9% 1% 7%
Rep 14% 78% 3% 5%
Ind 53% 36% 6% 5%
18-29 61% 34% 2% 3%
30-44 47% 41% 6% 6%
45-59 53% 37% 3% 7%
60+ 48% 39% 5% 8%