Well, this is the last in the diary series for a while (other than today's updates - which may or may not be important, depending on developments). Surely, there will be things to discuss regarding Ike tomorrow while the storm is ongoing and in Ike's aftermath. But in terms of a forecast - which is where these diaries focus - today is the last day. And after Ike there is, thankfully, no real threat behind him. In fact, even today, the diary will shift gears a bit. This main post will be mostly about intensity, and the focus today will be on a pseudo/kinda-sorta-live blog. That is, I'll try to do more, but much briefer updates throughout the day as new data arrives in. I'm switching to that gear, because the only real question with Ike now is intensity changes prior to landfall. And we can follow this pretty closely in real-time with satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data. So, now, on to Ike...
First, a word to my fellow Kossacks in harm's way... if you're not done preparing, you should be! Impacts from Ike are already beginning to be felt at the coast. As of early this morning, when I'm beginning this, the current conditions at Galveston, TX are already showing breezes kicking up.
And coastal Louisiana is rocking. New Orleans Lakefront Airport recently reported a wind gust of 69mph. It looks a but fishy, given other observations in the region - but most in the area are still gusting in the 30-50mph range. Please be forewarned, Ike is a large, strong storm. The largeness could be problematic for inland areas, because they'll be well inside Ike's wind field before the storm center hits land. That's important because once Ike goes inland, weakening begins. But the wind field is so expansive that high winds will reach a good 100+ miles inland before weakening of the storm even begins.
Track is pretty much settled, so I'm not going to harp on that. Here are the forecast models from Allan Huffman's weather page:
...still just a bit of spread, but the focus is clearly right on the south side of or just south of Galveston. Moreover, the excellent performing (relatively) Euro model - not on that image - agrees... right down the middle of that guidance, aimed south of Galveston. The Canadian model, also not on the image, but of less concern, given its performance this year... agrees, but is perhaps just a shade on the right side of the model consensus.
And Ike likely does not have another rightward surprise in store for us. Landfall is less than 24 hours away now, so track errors tend to be small. The typical error is just large enough so that Ike could still wobble north of Galveston - which is the hope, to put most of the Houston metro region on the west side of the storm, where winds and surge will be less. However, given a westward "wobble" recently, as seen on satellite and discussed in the latest NHC discussion, it will be even more difficult for Ike to come in north of the model consensus. Possible? Yes. But the likelihood has decreased, unfortunately. So, landfall just south of Galveston appears to be nearly a done deal. The official NHC track agrees:
So, the big question today is intensity. If there were ever an example of mixed news, it's this morning. Previous projections had Ike getting to a strong Category 3 or even a weak Category 4. On his current trajectory, assuming Ike holds course, such an intensity from such a huge storm would be tremendously catastrophic. But, thankfully, Ike now looks very unlikely to reach that level. As discussed in one of the updates yesterday, dry air and shear from a ridge over Texas put a halt to any attempts at intensification. That was supposed to abate overnight, as the ridge rolled over top of Ike. Certainly, it looks like it has lessened. So, there remains some window of opportunity for strengthening. But intensification within large storms typically occurs slowly. So, Ike is running out of time. A small storm over warm Gulf waters with 24 hours to go would have an outside shot at significant intensification prior to landfall. Ike, however, likely does not. So, the best (or worst, as the case may be) Ike will likely manage is a minimal Category 3. To be clear, if the storm gets that strong, it is still a major hurricane. And his large size and huge fetch will likely make conditions (esp. surge) worse than one might anticipate for a storm of that strength. So, even at 100kts (115mph), a minimal Category 3, Ike would be severe. Frankly, he might not even make it to 100kts, but that's NHC's official forecast, and I do agree that there will be enough slow intensification today for Ike to get close to, if not at 100kts. The dry air and shear may not be totally gone, as indicated on satellite and in the NHC discussion linked above. But it has certainly reduced - as is obvious comparing satellite imagery from around noon yesterday to this morning. So, 100kts seems reasonable.
So, Ike will be weaker than originally projected. Excellent news! Then why did I say the news was mixed? Well, the problem is, the projected intensification - though less - is now no longer a figment of conjecture. Some minor intensification already appears underway. Note in the above linked NHC discussion that maximum sustained winds are now officially up to 90kts... they were at 85kts yesterday. Meanwhile, after a rise in pressure (indicative of weakening) yesterday afternoon, aircraft reconnaissance data has been indicating a slow, gradual drop in the central pressure of Ike. The pressure had risen as high as 957mb at one point. In the latest report, as I write this, the pressure is back down to 954mb (and the dropsonde may have missed the center slightly, so 952 or 953mb may be more accurate). This isn't a large drop, and is a decent ways from the 944mb Ike was at yesterday morning... but it is a distinct downward trend. And, in fact, the winds have come up. Flight level winds from the recon have hit over 100kts several times this morning. During the flights yesterday, a flight level wind at or above 100kts was a rarity. I wouldn't call it "commonplace" this morning (the current recon flight has yet to see a 100+kt flight level wind), but they've been occurring relatively frequently. Max flight level winds have peaked this morning at 111kts. Given their flight level, that actually supports putting Ike at 100kts right now for his initial intensity. However, the onboard instrumentation which can "see" surface winds (called an SFMR ...a stepped-frequency microwave radiometer) has only supported 80+kts. Given the SFMR's not-always-reliable reputation, combined with some higher indications from dropsondes, 90kts seems a reasonable setting for Ike. But it obviously wouldn't take much (just some improved "mixing") to get Ike up to 95 or 100kts.
...and this notion that just better "mixing" of winds to the surface would get Ike up to 100kts is supported by the oil rig platform at Garden Banks, south of Louisiana. At 6:45AM local time (7:45AM EDT) their sustained winds cranked up to 109kts... far into Category 3 range! But the anemometer there is about 375ft above sea level. Winds at the surface would be lower. But you get the point... the winds at this platform are impressive, and likely are not in the absolute strongest winds of Ike... so, efficient "mixing" alone could easily bring Ike's winds up.
And here's how Ike's looking on satellite as of this morning:
...the light blue "slot" on the northwest side is indicative of some continued dry air intrusion. However, it is much less than yesterday. During much of Thursday streaks and patches of that dry air could be seen in many locations within Ike's circulation and even close to the center. The center in this image is under the deeper reds in the middle of Ike. Those deep reds indicate strong convection. So, Ike's center is embedded in strong convection, with no dry air wrapping into the center this morning. This is why Ike has been able to slowly intensify. On the other hand, you don't really see a CDO (central dense overcast... a large area of deep, solid convection over the storm center)... I don't believe that convection over the center this morning would qualify as a CDO. It is neither persistent enough nor large enough. Therefore, the convection is somewhat disorganized. That, combined with Ike's large size and some continued - albeit lessened - dry air and shear, continue to put a bit of a lid on Ike. Nonetheless, the dry air and shear are less, and the convection, even if a bit disorganized, is near the center and is certainly more impressive than on Thursday. So, some very slow, gradual intensification should continue today. And that will be the focus of any updates today - assuming no surprising track shifts. As mentioned, my updates will likely be more frequent than usual, but also much more brief than usual, in an attempt to quickly pass along relevant new info. Of course, as always, they will, unfortunately be subject to the "as time allows" caveat, as I do this in my down-time at work.
On a final note, I just want to re-emphasize the seriousness of this system. I am not an alarmist, like some media weather types. And it would be easy to downplay Ike, based on the failed expected intensification to date... as he may well now come in as only a Category 2 hurricane... not even considered "major". However, many of his impacts will get exaggerated beyond what his intensity implies. Here are some examples:
- Most critically, storm surge. Storm surge is related to the push of water in advance of a storm. As such, a long-track, large storm builds up a more significant surge. Ike definitely qualifies as a long-track, large storm. As such, the surge related to Ike may be more like that of a Category 3 storm. This is compounded by the fact that Ike will be landfalling near high tide and during tides which are astronomically higher than normal. This high tide effect should not be overstated - tidal shifts in this area are small. So, the tidal effect is very modest. Nonetheless, it's not helpful, as it'll tack about an extra foot onto the surge.
- Wind damage. This will certainly be much less in the now-reduced intensity forecast compared to what was previously expected. Nonetheless, it will still be worse than what might be anticipated from a normal Category 2 storm. There are three reasons for this, two related to Ike's size. One was discussed above... Ike's size allows winds to push well inland before the center reaches shore to begin the weakening process. The other issue with Ike's size will be that winds will persist for a considerable time. A long-duration pounding tends to be more effective than a quick blow. The third wind issue is related to Ike's structure. The highest winds are not right in the inner core, as is typical of a hurricane. As such, much like the first point, these winds can get inland (since they're not near the center) prior to the storm hitting the shore and weakening.
- Rainfall. Inland rainfall flooding is often overlooked, yet is often the biggest killer in tropical cyclones. And, once again, Ike's flooding may be more significant than is implied by looking at the track. Ike gets up a pretty good head of steam turning more northward and up on through the U.S. This quick motion reduces rainfall amounts. The problem is, the ground will be saturated in some of the areas in places like north Texas and Oklahoma due to rainfall associated with a cold front. And Ike's size may further compound things, keeping locations in the rainfall region longer than might be expected by a fast-mover. So, there's still likely to be a pretty wide area of 4-8" rains (locally more) from Ike. That's probably not enough for tremendous flooding... but on saturated ground, there'll probably be more flooding than is typical of a storm moving along like Ike will be.
Updates as new info rolls in and as time allows.....
UPDATED 9:50AM EDT Mixed news continues. Numerous recon passes through the center of Ike continue to hit the center at 955mb. No intensification. And SFMR and dropsondes haven't supported anything over 90kts; and flight level winds barely peaking over 100kts don't either. But the "bad" news is... check out the sat pix (see link in main body)... convection wrapping around the north and northwest side of Ike may be the initial re-formation of a "real" eye. Now, let's not jump the gun here... Ike tried to form an eye last evening, and failed. So, we'll see what happens, but that's what's going on in satellite imagery right now. Some have surmised that intensity doesn't matter anymore, because the surge is a done deal. There is some truth to that. But, certainly, a stronger storm can make a bad situation worse. Moreover, the force produced by wind is not a linear relationship to the strength of the wind, it is exponential. So, a 10-15kt increase in intensity (*if* that were to occur... I'm not saying it will... just posing a "what if") will make matters measurably worse. In short, intensity matters, and that's the focus today - barring any track surprises.
UPDATEx2 10:40AM EDT New recon data is worrying. No "fix" yet, but the extrapolated surface pressure was 952mb, but with 45kt winds... indicating pressure lower than that... meaning intensification is, possibly, continuing. Recon flight level winds are also up... 110kts sustained at flight level. The one comfort, SFMR (the surface wind instrument) continues to show poor mixing... 86kt surface winds. The SFMR, though, can be somewhat unreliable. As I write this, a dropsonde just clocked 87kts at the surface. They also got a massive 133kts about a couple thousand feet up... further indicating that improved "mixing" can kick Ike up to a Category 3 easily.
...satellite imagery also continues to look improved - though there are still "issues" on the west side. Our best hope is that those "issues" (dry air, shear?) continue to plague Ike... but, right now, Ike appears to be on an upward trend... albeit slow.
UPDATEx3 10:55AM EDT New NHC advisory... no changes really. Implied weaker at landfall (95kts... 105mph), but that's likely just a function of their forecast points. No other rela new data.
UPDATEx4 11:40AM EDT Again, check out the satellite link in the main body. Ike continues looking better organized, as deep convection on the east side has been attempting to wrap around and also has, apparently successfully, built over the center of Ike. But as this has just been occurring, it takes time for pressure and winds to resond. And, indeed, we see no response yet from recon reports. Still no new "fix" in, but reports indicate the pressure remains somewhere between 952 and 958mb... roughly the same as before... and no extraordinary wind reports recently. Bottom line right now: Ike is clearly trying to get his act together. My hope is that it's too little too late. It's already a major storm from an impact point of view. So, we really don't need any more intensification. So, hopefully, this improved organization is occurring too late to lower the central pressure and spin up the winds any more.
UPDATEx5 11:50AM EDT ...new recon "fix" verified no intensification yet. Pressure actually up to 958mb (some indication from earlier NOAA pass that it may be lower, but this Air Force pass, obtained from dropsonde, should be more accurate); max flight level winds this pass, only 96kts; and max surface winds (indicated from SFMR) 81kts. So, status quo. Waiting and watching to see if pressures and winds respond to improved organization noted on satellite.
UPDATEx6 12:20PM EDT Recon continues to see increasing flight level winds, but still waiting for surface pressure and surface winds to respond. NOAA plane just clocked 121kts at flight level... the highest in days... but nothing significant in the SFMR (surface wind instrument). Also, a dropsonde once again hit massive 133kt winds, this time only about 1000ft up. Yet, still, surface winds in the dropsonde were only about 80kts. Clearly, Ike is "threatening" to intensify, but no surface response - yet - thankfully. Hopefully, we can run the clock out on Ike. As I said above, this situation is bad enough as is. We don't need a last minute compounding of the problem.
UPDATEx7 1:30PM EDT Please rec the LiveBlog Mothership to keep it on the rec list... it contains some helpful info for locals and those concerned. Surprisingly little new in the last hour. Recon shows little change. Satellite images continue showing improved structure, but dry air continues to intrude. That dry air may be saving us from last-minute intensification. But, as I said, the structure looks better, and there are hints of a developing eye (though it's unclear if it's an eye or just wrapping in the dry air... which would have precisely opposite effects... so we'll have to wait and see). All in all, no real change in Ike... but with improved appearance, in general, continuing on satellite - but no reflection of it in the surface pressure or winds.
UPDATEx8 2:05PM EDT Some good news... latest recon fix continues to shoe no intensification, despite the improved appearance on satellite and the earlier increase is flight level winds... pressure 957mb... down 1mb, which is in the noise, and the 958mb report earlier seemed too high, given reports from the NOAA plane. So, Ike is just holding steady. Obviously, that's bad enough. But I'll repeat myself... yes, Ike is plenty bad enough, but intensification would make it worse. So, this lack of any increase in strength is great news. Ike still has a bit of time to respond to the improved organization and increase in strength, but the time is running out. The clock may well run down on Ike.
Another bit of potential good news is that the convection wrapped around the top (north) of Ike. Convective imbalances tend to pull a tropical cyclone slightly in that direction. As such, Ike has seemed to edge slightly north recently. Because of the earlier west wobble, Ike remains on target for a worst-case, just-south-of-Galveston landfall. But that gap (i.e., how far south he comes ashore) has closed and increased the chance for Ike to roll in to the right of Galveston/Houston... which would decrease surge and wind. Still doesn't look like this will happen, but the opportunity has increased, and any last minute wobbles could help spare the region (though that would mean worse impacts up towards Beaumont/Port Arthur).
UPDATEx9 4:10PM EDT Final update, for two reasons. The personal reason: I'm leaving to head out of town shortly. The meteorological reason: the clock has about run out on Ike. Ike simply has no more time to really intensify. A quick burst of intensification is unlikely with a storm of Ike's size. So, in order to intensify appreciably, he needs a fair amount of time to do so. That's just no longer available. And while satellite shows a new burst of convection near the center, the previous deep convection is fading. So, Ike no longer looks quite as impressive on satellite imagery (not weakening, really... just not intensifying either).
Radar does show some improvement of the center, but that's just as likely to be due to the storm getting nearer to the radar sites as anything else. So, any intensification of Ike now would be very slight. He should hit as a 90-95kt Category 2 hurricane. And he should still hit very near Galveston. Actually, if one were to examine the surge maps you'll find that hitting right at Galveston actually reduces their surge slightly - though it's still huge. So, the worst of it may actually be just up the coast beyond Galveston and up to Port Arthur. Though, I'm not saying Ike will actually landfall north of Galveston - which would dramatically reduce their surge..... rather, right near Galveston, putting their surge at 12-15 feet (instead of 15-20). Unfortunately, that does not necessarily mean the 17 foot seawall will do the trick. It may help spare Galveston complete storm surge devestation. But... the seawall isn't 17 feet throughout the island, and the waves will roll in on top of that surge... near high tide... at an astronomical high tide; so, I still expect plenty of water to spill over the seawall and water to come in from other parts of the island (it already is... significantly... and the storm is still over 100 miles offshore).
So, I guess these changes are good... Ike not intensifying to a Category 3, and Galveston/Houston perhaps just missing the absolute worst of the surge. But it's small consolation. Ike remains a big, powerful Cat 2, and Galveston will still get hammered from that surge.
That's it folks, let's hope the upper Texas coast pulls through as well as possible. I've fialed to focus on Beaumont/Port Arthur, but they're also in serious storm surge (and wind) territory. So, the whole upper coast is under the gun tonight and tomorrow morning. Let's hope for the best.
Over and out.
UPDATEx10 6:10PM EDT O.k., I lied... one last update before I'm out the door. Some are probably noticing that finally the eye is taking shape... identified on satellite, radar and recon. Of course, it figures... as soon as we essentially closed the book on Ike's intensity. However, I just wanted to get this last update out to assure folks that this new development isn't likely to mean much. Again, a large hurricane takes a while to spin up. So, maxing out at about a 5kt intensification still seems like the most likely scenario... to about 95kts before landfall. But, of course, we do have to recognize the outside chance that he squeezes up to 100kts. And I do believe that makes a difference... unlike NHC's statement that an extra 10kts is pretty irrelevant. In my mind, it's not. Not only are wind forces exponential, as mentioned earlier, but... remember also what I wrote in the last update - that the surge may be a shade below previous expectations at Galveston/Houston. That may keep it just below 17 feet (the height of the seawall). So, even if the extra 10kts can only cram in another foot worth of a surge, that may end up being the straw that broke the camel's back, as the saying goes. Again, that's a "what if" scenario, as I expect only about 5kts of intensification. That may be small enough to be inconsequential. So, in my opinion, these new developments aren't that big a deal. But, if the increase gets up to 10kts or more, it is relevant. So, though I can't do further updates tonight, please keep monitoring Ike, just in case he surprises and gets up to 100kts sustained. At that juncture, the wind and surge impact may begin to be measurably - albeit slightly - more severe.
Okay, now, that's about it.