That’s right. As of September 11th, Obama has 268 electoral votes according to a raft of polls that have come out since Labor Day. 268.
Data - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...
Map - Johnnygunn
Now, Gertrude Stein knows that polls are polls are polls; however, two things have emerged since late August. First, not only has Obama been slipping in national polls which are largely meaningless, but he has also been slipping in statewide polling, particularly in states that have traditionally voted Republican. Second, the map has not been redrawn. It looks almost exactly like 2000 and 2004.
Earlier this summer David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign director, said that Obama could win without Ohio and Florida. Sure. But the odds are like drawing on an inside straight. Yeah, yeah, I know. All the Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. But it sure doesn’t allow for much leeway, does it? What happens if McCain wins just one of the Kerry states?
Well, I have news for Mr. Plouffe. Obama DOES need Ohio and Florida this November. Michigan and Pennsylvania, too. Like it or not, the nation remains rigidly divided between red states and blue states. The September polling map differs little from the election results in 2000 and 2004.
Data - http://uselectionatlas.org/...
Map - Johnnygunn
Data - http://uselectionatlas.org/...
Map - Johnnygunn
Only four – that’s right FOUR– states switch colors in these maps, three between 2000 and 2004, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, and one according to recent polls, Colorado. That leaves forty-six states that have remained the same color since 2000. It would be wonderful to redraw the map, but it is very unlikely to happen. And the last two months of the campaign ought to acknowledge this.
If anything, the choice of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential nominee has solidified John McCain’s support in traditional Republican states while galvanizing Obama support in strong Democratic states. Looking at the polling map again, there are, at most, ten states in play – Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico in the West, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania in the Northeast, and Florida and Virginia in the South. (Although Washington and Indiana are, at present, lighter shades of blue and pink, New Hampshire and Florida are more likely in play.)
Palin gave the McCain campaign a double exposure – Northern Exposure and Southern Exposure. Southern politicians have dominated Congress since God invented dirt while the issues of Northern Tier states have often been invisible. Palin brings both the cultural and economic North to the table. Not only do large numbers of people in northern New England, the Upper Great Lakes, and the Pacific Northwest hunt and snowmobile, these areas have traditionally been more dependent upon resource-based industries – logging, mining, fishing. What’s more, in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin the far northern counties have been traditionally Democratic – albeit Reagan/Clinton Dem.
Take Michigan for example. Bill Clinton swept the Upper Peninsula in 1996; however, Yooper support for the Dems has been steadily declining. Not to mention that the red ink is getting thick, statewide.
Data - http://uselectionatlas.org/...
Modified Map - Johnnygunn
Same goes for Minnesota and Wisconsin. The shipping and mining areas of Duluth, Superior, and Hibbing have been core Democratic areas; however, they have been slammed by closures and deindustrialization.
Data - http://uselectionatlas.org/...
Modified Map - Johnnygunn
The Obama campaign must recognize the potential appeal that the Palin candidacy has in the Northern Tier. Unchecked, it may make a difference in one or two crucial states.
Then there’s the Southern Exposure. There is little doubt that McCain used the Palin veep position to shore up his support with Evangelical Republicans who had been lukewarm about his candidacy. Although Sarah Palin left the more doctrinaire Wasilla Assembly of God Church for the less controversial Wasilla Bible Church, it is still Evangelical but not Pentecostal.
A quick look at the map of Evangelicals in the United States shows that the choice of Palin has enormous implications for the Republican base. The GOP has won every state with an Evangelical population of greater than 15% in both 2000 and 2004. In this map and in most comparisons, the label "Evangelical" applies to predominately white congregations. Members of historically African American denominations, although often evangelical in theology, have significantly different social and political views.
Data - http://www.thearda.com/
Map - Johnnygunn
The most important religious demographic for Democrats isn’t Mainline Protestants who break even politically or Catholics who trend slightly Democratic or Jews who vote strongly Democratic but are a small percentage of the vote. The most important and largest demographic are those who categorize themselves as believers who are not affiliated with any denomination. Caution is urged. Since there is no comprehensive census on religious beliefs, it is difficult to infer who these people might be. Are they lapsed Catholics, Jews, and Mormons who simply do not go to church, temple, or ward? Do they reflect the larger religious mix of their community and state or do they stand in opposition to it? Finally, in West Virginia, many Holiness believers are staunchly antidenominational; yet, are culturally more conservative than Evangelicals. Still, the following map is illustrative because it suggests where resistance to Evangelical Republicanism might be centered.
Data - http://www.thearda.com/
Map - Johnnygunn
But wait !! There’s more !!!
There’s also a Western Exposure. McCain and Palin are both Westerners. The Democrats have NEVER run a Westerner on the ticket. Perhaps the greatest myth of the West is that of the "rugged individualist". No area of the country has been more dependent upon interlocking relationships, whether corporate or governmental. From the transcontinental railroad to the great water projects to public lands grazing, Westerners have depended on Eastern capital and government subsidies. Still, the image of the "maverick" is branded into the West’s hindquarters. And it is this image, combined with their Western residence, that will boost McCain and Palin in the West. A look at how Perot did in 1992 confirms this. Perot even beat Clinton in Utah and came close in Idaho and Alaska.
Data - http://uselectionatlas.org/...
Map - Johnnygunn
Recent polls point to a big McCain lead in Montana and North Dakota. They are not likely to be winnable this November. The Western Exposure may also peel away a few votes in Nevada and Colorado. Its impact will be smallest in New Mexico. But, the chances for Obama winning these three Intermountain states are lessened by a Republican ticket with two Westerners.
Thus, it may come down to ten states that will decide this election.
Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
It’s a sad commentary, but the other forty hardly matter.
Yet, again.
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A 50-State Strategy for Congress is great. Kay Hagen can get elected in North Carolina. Gary Trauner can get elected in Wyoming. However, a 50-State Strategy at the presidential level is not only unrealistic, it is courting disaster at this point. Unfortunately, the map is not redrawn. The red states are still red and the blue states are still blue. The winner this November is the candidate who can peel two or three into his column. I want that candidate to be Obama.