The rec list looks like it is in full panic mode. There is plenty of infighting. Diaries that say Obama is losing have made the rec list. Prominent users of this site have claimed that Obama has lost control of the message and is going to lose because of it.
People are convinced that we need to be aggressive. They're tired of the Republicans attacking our patriotism, so they try to do the same. Unfortunately, they're a little too direct. Republicans never directly state it. They create a series of other statements which lead directly to the conclusion. People here are too hungry for blood to get the distinction, and the diaries (not the front page, which is fine) has become a liability to Obama and other Democratic candidates.
I can understand why this happened. People are beat down from the past eight years and from having their viewpoints treated as second class. They saw Obama and they began to hope. They started dreaming of a giant landslide that would repudiate the last eight years. And then they convinced themselves it was actually going to happen.
It was never going to happen. Five years ago, you probably could've been committed to an insane asylum for saying, "An African American by the name of Barack Obama will win the Democratic Nomination for President in 2008, and he'll go on to win the White House." We are trying to pull off the impossible, and we are close to making it happen. The questions for readers of this blog is: will you be able to say you helped make it happen?
There have been many blog posts, behind-the-scenes e-mails, and phone calls from worried Democrats this week. Many people think Barack Obama blew it by going to Germany and giving a big speech (on that, I agree with them-I argued against that foolish idea at the time). These Democrats have also convinced themselves Obama is going to lose. They might be right about that too, but I think they’re wrong.
A look at the current state of the electoral college shows John McCain winning with 270 votes. Barack Obama is solidifying his lead in New Hampshire; Obama has leads in all the other states won by John Kerry; and Obama leads in Iowa and Colorado, two states won by George W. Bush. That gives Obama a total of 268 votes, one vote away from victory. After two solid weeks for John McCain–after his convention and the press fawning over Sarah Palin–Barack Obama is still just one electoral vote away from victory.
That one electoral vote could come from a number of places. It could come from Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia or even a congressional district in Nebraska. At his high water mark, John McCain is barely winning. To become the 44th President of the United States, McCain will have to run a perfect campaign from now until November 4th. That is exceedingly unlikely.
McCain’s campaign has overreached of late. They’ve complained about every single thing that didn’t go their way. They’ve kept Sarah Palin in the spotlight, but they haven’t allowed her to take questions. Now–after an unprecedented two weeks on cue cards, no questions asked of her–Palin is finally giving interviews. And they’ve been disastrous for McCain’s campaign. In an interview with ABC, Palin threatened war with Russia and showed she had no clue what the Bush Doctrine–the greatest issue of our time–is. It gets worse, in a speech to departing members of the Alaska National Guard, Palin repeated the lie that Iraq was linked to the 9-11 attacks. The Washington Post reports:
"Gov. Sarah Palin linked the war in Iraq with the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, telling an Iraq-bound brigade of soldiers that included her son that they would "defend the innocent from the enemies who planned and carried out and rejoiced in the death of thousands of Americans."
Even George W. Bush has stopped telling that lie. Yet, despite her obvious lack of knowledge and unpreparedness, Palin claims she’s ready to assume the Presidency if something were to happen to John McCain. Palin’s outlandish claims will be open to scrutiny from the previously timid press over the next few weeks. The free ride McCain and Palin got for a week after their convention is coming to an end. And their bounce will slowly fade away.
As long as Barack Obama takes advantage of the coming shifts, which should favor his side, Obama will (as Bill Clinton pointed out) win the Presidency on November 4th. The question for those of us who support Senator Obama is this: what will we do to help him get that one electoral vote? The answer should not be pushing poorly sourced rumors about our opponents, as Mr. Hackett did yesterday.
The answer should be giving up two weekend days a month to canvass for him. The answer should be making 100 phone calls a week to battleground states from the comfort of your home. The answer should be writing letters to the editor. The answer should be standing on a street corner with a sign. The answer should be working a tent at a fall fair.
Barack Obama will probably win this election. The spate of Republican attacks are designed to sow doubts about Obama’s chances of victory, depress enthusiasm, reduce Obama’s fund-raising, and keep his volunteers at home. The reality is that there’s no way the Republicans can keep pace with Obama’s fund-raising machine, and the reality is that the Republican field operation is a mere skeleton compared to Obama’s unprecedented legion of committed volunteers.
The people running John McCain’s campaign know this. It’s why they’re trying to stop our donations to Obama, and keep us at home instead of on the door steps of this country, with negative ads. If we say "not this time;" if we have the courage to donate and knock in doors, no matter what they say; if we have the discipline to not waste our time on being outraged at the Republicans’ negative ads, we will win and they will lose. So the question is do you want to help John McCain by continuing to push unsubstantiated rumors on the internet, or do you want to help Barack Obama by donating, canvassing, phone banking, and sign waiving?
I choose the latter--all of it. I made my first political donation in 4 years yesterday--I gave $19 to Obama's campaign. I am knocking on doors today. I will make phone calls in the evening this week. I ordered a t-shirt from the store yesterday; if it arrives on-time, I'll walk around the fair with it. I hope you'll join me in helping Barack Obama win. We can only win, we can only have a good day in November if we work together to pull off the impossible. And then, when Barack Obama is President-elect and giving his victory speech, we can look to that television screen and say, "I helped make that happen."