These past few week I've been feeling a lot of emotions about this election cycle. Excitement. Fear. Anger. Angst. Pride. Powerful. Weak. Shock. All of these ups and down completely tied to the polls.
My first reaction, like many, after Sarah Palin's speech of one liners at the RNC was to give money to the campaign. $50 in the morning. Then I learned Obama raised $10 million in those first 24 hours after her speech. But I wanted to do more. So much more.
Up until that point, I had already been going out a few hours each weekend and either registering voters or canvassing. But until this week, I didn't know how effective canvassing can really be. Follow me below the flip, and I'll share.
It is all to simple and easy to think, I'm just a small fish in a big pond, and I can't effect any ones vote .. or if I do, its just one or two people. But even the small time spent with each of your neighbors has the power to turn elections. Drip by drip. Unless we all do it, then its a flood.
On Thursday, my wife and I attended an Obama organizational meeting. There they Obama leaders showed us how canvassing can be effective. So tonight I found this article tonight about canvassing: http://www.pnas.org/... . Bottom line, knock on a Democrats door, you increase turn out by 6%. You knock on a door of someone not affiliated with either Dems or GOOP, that number is more like 8%.
Lets set up a simple math problem. Lets say that you knock on 100 doors/week .. this is a few hours of work. And lets say only 25% of those knocks results in someone coming to the door. Not all will be voting for Barack .. but thanks to his neighbor-to-neighbor tool on his website, his campaign can give you a list of doors to knock on where the person is a Dem, unaffiliated, or maybe an Republican who has expressed interest in his campaign (maybe they signed up for stuff on his page). So your list is Obama-friendly loaded. Lets say 75% of those people you talk with are either certainly going to vote for Barack, leaning his way or really undecided. You're friendly. You smile. You talk to them a few minutes, give them some much needed information (maybe some literature) and bam, they are more likely to vote, and hopefully for Barack (not only because of the material you shared with them, but because you're friendly, and who doesn't want to be part of a group of nice people).
So for every 100 knocks voter turn out increases by 1.3 votes (100 x 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.07 = 1.3). Not much for a few hours work. We've got 7 weeks until election day. So that is about 9.2 more votes. That might not make you feel too good. But have you been canvassing? If not, that 9.2 votes Obama won't get.
Remember Florida in 2000? The difference between Bush and Gore was some 537 votes .. or something some 58 canvassers could have done to fix in the weeks leading up to the election. But certainly, not all states are going to be this close. Florida was unique.
How many of us here haven't been out canvassing? While I'm sure many of us have been, there might be many who haven't. Or maybe you know that neighbor, friend or relative who have not helped out yet, but you think would if you encouraged them. Maybe canvassed with them for a night.
I just put a call out to my friends on facebook to canvass. That's 100 people. If I could get them all to go out there between now and election day, that is 920 votes. Now what if they were to do the same for their friends .. say 100 friends each .. 92,000 votes. That could easily swing a state. Which one or ones could it be this time? Maybe Ohio? Virginia? North Carolina?
So if you haven't given time, can you please do it? And can you please ask others to do so.
This is our election, and Obama says. We have to win it. Now!!
I'll be out there tomorrow doing my bit. What about you?