To worry yet, or will we be called concern trolls?
For months, my fellow Kossacks have been saying "don't worry about the polls" and "it's all about the electoral vote." "Just go to fivethirtyeight.com," they say, "they know how to do it right"
Well, FiveThirtyEight ain't lookin so pretty right now.. a look over the flip...
Let me begin by stating that I am not the type for concern. I fully believe that Barack knows what he's doing and has a solid game plan. I fully believe that if elections were fair and equitable, this would be a landslide for the democrats. However, I am also a bit for conspiracies, and I have to say, my friends, that I think we're gettin fucked.
I've heard it said, many times, that the republicans don't have to win, they just have to make the polls look convincing enough to the public that it would be possible for them to win. Then they can steal it like they've done the past two times. For us to win in spite of republican deception, I think this election will have to be a massive landslide just to get us to 50.1% on election day.
What disturbed me the most was when I took a look over at FiveThirtyEight. I have been following that website quite closely, and I truly enjoy their assessments. Nate's method of tracking is slow to reflect strange spikes in polling numbers, and has shown a fairly positive position for Obama since the end of the primaries. However, things aren't lookin so positive right now:
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/...
(sorry, I'm not so good at this HTML shit)
This is the worst it has ever looked for Obama since he has been the presumptive nominee. Does this not worry anyone? I haven't seen a single diary about this, so I just want to know if maybe you guys all know something I don't. Like suddenly fivethirtyeight is unreliable because Sarah Palin is fucking nate or something.... no? damn.
Now, I'm not saying this is the end. It is not. We will fight our hardest. We will continue to donate our time and money. But what if it can never be enough? What if we are simply denying the fact that change in our government is entirely out of reach?
I'm from New Jersey, and we're pretty solidly blue. However, if we get anywhere near being a toss up state, I will pound the pavement in addition to the donations I already make. I know that everyone here is doing the same. I guess this is just the conpiracy theorist/troll in me coming out, but I can't really help it. FiveThirtyEight has been a comfy, warm safety blanket for me this entire election against the national poll-loving chicken littles in the MSM. But now my blankey has been torn to threads, oh lord, what to do?
I leave you with a song:
100 Times Fuckeder
by NoFX
Fighting with gloves
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Hitting above the belt
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Citing defense
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Absorbing all the lies
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
We get what we fucking deserve
Bringing raised fists to a knife fight
You'd think developed minds could learn
Not to give benefit of doubt
You wouldn't trust a hungry animal around
Your newborn, would you?
Sharing the wealth
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Taking the higher road
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Showing respect
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Giving a shit
Now we're the ones a hundred times fuckeder
Did anyone really expect
To win a race already fixed
The spoils doled out in advance
The appointed already picked
All allegations of fraud
Categorically dismissed as absurd