This is the second installment of my weekly series on the 2008 campaign. The purpose of the column is to briefly described what happened in the prior week, and provide some analysis and suggestions for Camp Obama to win the election.
The week of September 14th had a lot of twists and turns, as the dust began to settle from the GOP Convention and the McCain-Palin ticket undertook its first full week of campaigning.
JOHN MCCAIN
John McCain and Sarah Palin made stops in Missouri, Pennsylvania and Virginia drawing crowds along the way that were far less than advertised, but still a solid increase over what McCain had drawn before. McCain and the GOP seemed heartened by polling data that showed him increasing support to make gains in the electoral college. According to some polling, McCain had enjoyed a major surge in Montana, North Carolina and Georgia to move them from the toss-up to lean McCain category. McCain also improved his position in Florida and made gains in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico according to some polls. Independent voters clearly seemed to lean towards McCain to some degree in just about every poll last week. The post-convention polls were probably the best story for the GOP all week.
On the stump, the two candidates featured themselves as the new mavericks and reformers who will change Washington. Change became the new adopted buzzword for McCain and he seemed to delight in being able to steal Obama’s theme. Sarah Palin remained the focal point of the campaign. She started to draw the ire of the media for repeatedly making statements about her record in Alaska that were not accurate. She made them so often that Democrats felt free to call them lies and the media nodded their heads. Sarah Palin also ran into trouble in her interview with Charlie Gibson, where she seemed ill at ease at times, struggling to answer questions, and overall did not appear authoritative. That uncertain performance seemed to open the floodgates as all the major papers and news organizations did extensive pieces on Troopergate, her tenure as Mayor of Wasila, and her governorship. The coverage was less than flattering and a portrait emerged of Palin that suggested that her style was much closer to Bush and Cheney than to that of a true maverick reformer. Tina Fey, whose resemblance to Sarah Palin is so unnervingly odd to the point of disturbing, put her own touch on Sarah Palin in a hysterical SNL opener that seemed to crystallize Palin's political skills as well as her limitations.
John McCain also got some heat from the media for defending Palin's inaccurate statements as true even in the face of Media scrutiny. He also took some heat for ads he had issued against Barack Obama (including one scurrilous ad alleging that Obama helped empower pedophiles in Illinois). He was most notably scrutinized on The View, in which Barbara Walters sardonically poked holes in his statements like zingers hurled at a dart board.
The week ended with a 9-11 remembrance, a forum on national service, and complaints from McCain that he had to go negative against Obama because Obama wouldn't agree to debate him in town halls across the country. Hurricane Ike and a train accident in LA also took priority over political coverage over the weekend, and we’re all still trying to assess the damage.
BARACK OBAMA
Obama had a busy week in Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Obama was struggling to deal with Palin, bad polls, nervous Democrats, nasty McCain attack ads, the GOP spin machine, getting back on an economic message, and trying to make Joe Biden relevant again.
Obama sharpened his tone and message against McCain on the stump, hitting McCain hard for masking Bush policies under the mantle of change, for shading the truth and telling outright lies, and in part to Sarah Palin for doing the same. He used his comedic and sardonic wit to needle McCain, on issues ranging from civil liberties to Iraq policy to taxes and got into a controversy for using the term 'lipstick on a pig' to describe Bush's policies. Sensing an opportunity to change the subject, McCain accused Obama of directing that comment at Palin, not his policies and demanded an apology. As the Media regressed to its tabloid nature, Obama unleashed a response followed by an interview on David Letterman that effectively ended the controversy. He accused the McCain campaign of ‘phony outrage’, and reprised a memorable phrase from his convention speech ‘Enough’.
Obama also went on the interview circuit with Olbermann (who seemed to offer a good suggestion that the campaign actually used), CNN (forum on service), Letterman (on lipstick and other matters), and O’Reilly (a few more installments of an earlier taped interview). His performances were solid and commanding (far better than the prior week) and in the case of O’Reilly, he seemed to earn grudging respect and credibility.
After essentially pausing the campaign for the 9-11 remembrance, Obama hit the stump again in New Hampshire with a brand new speech on the economy and for the first time since the Convention, tied in themes with policy criticisms and policy detail. Unlike prior appearances, Obama dumped the town hall format and went in favor of prepared texts, podiums and large audiences. Tax policy is beginning to move front and center into the debate, upon the advice of surrogates in the field of battleground states. The campaign issued a slew of attack ads against McCain’s character and Palin’s lying. Polls confirmed a tightening of the race but a slow return to a tied race in the national standard and tracking polls by the end of last week. The State polls were a bit more problematic for Obama as they seemed to confirm that the race has fundamentally changed. Obama will have to defend blue battlegrounds, many of the same states that Kerry had to defend. However, the primary red state battlegrounds remained battlegrounds, and so the race moves on. Another problem for Obama, which remained unresolved, is the issue of Joe Biden. While Joe did speak at a number of events in places like Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin and Montana (and quite well I might add), the coverage he received was minimal, leaving many to wonder whether Obama erred in not picking a campaigning heavyweight like Hillary Clinton (a doubt that GOP delighted in pushing in its talking points). The campaign announced plans to feature Joe Biden more prominently, and previewed an important speech from Joe for early in the coming week.
ANALYSIS
For Obama, last week was for heavy lifting. Unlike Republicans, who only need to repeat the same mantras (without any regard to truth), raise money and hit the opponent, Democrats have a higher burden to carry to hit the various issues that are going to matter to an ever fickle electorate. It’s the price we pay for being Democrats in an era of low-information voters who think that anyone can do the job of running Washington if they just look the part.
That said, Obama accomplished some important goals this week, which I believe will pay off in the remaining weeks of this month, provided that the campaign can stick to its message.
Obama faced down the GOP machine and seemed to win the debate. He called the GOP out on its lies and embarrassed the media into actually scrutinizing McCain and Palin. I know of no Democratic candidate who has been able to change the press coverage of the campaign in such a stark manner. Every single news network did stories on Palin’s and McCain’s statements and the coverage was not flattering. While many Democrats complain that too much time was spent not focusing on the issues, in my view every Democratic candidate in a contested race has to face down the GOP machine, which is expert at changing the subject. The ones who pass the test win. Obama, in my view, did pass the test and I believe he will get more receptive coverage.
Palin also took a beating last week based on a concerted effort from Democratic surrogates, Media scrutiny and Palin’s own errors. The country learned through non-campaign affiliated voices that the bridge to nowhere, the plane on ebay, the tall tales of earmarks rejected were lies. The country also learned about Palin’s flirtation with religious extremism, book banning, personal vendettas, and questionable budget management. At the end of the week, the Palin effect appeared contained to the GOP base and some GOP leaners. However, as Matt Damon duly noted, she has also become a galvanizing point for many voters who were lukewarm about Obama, and people who want to end the Bush era seemed to have more clarity on the dangers of Palin being one heartbeat away from the Presidency. Obama seemed to benefit from that ‘fear of Palin’ sentiment in some polling. Palin’s negatives went way up last week (according to our own DKos/R2000 poll). She became more of an ordinary candidate for the VP office instead of a phenomenon. We now know her strengths and limitations as a candidate, and I really don’t think she’ll be bothering us much any longer.
According to polling, Obama seemed to maintain his personal approval ratings. They ended up higher than McCain, which is unusual after a GOP convention. This bodes well for Obama to be able to make his case with credibility in the coming weeks. In addition, Obama got back on the stump in a format that suits him best and delivered his best political speech of the campaign in New Hampshire. It was a speech rich in policy detail, criticisms of McCain and themes of hope, change, while fitting it into a narrative of what is happening to the American family in today’s Bush economy. But the key is sustained consistency.
That’s not to say the picture is rosy. There are some real vulnerabilities for Obama that he absolutely has to address in order to win the election.
First, taxes. For all the ads attacking McCain, would it kill this campaign to release just one ad on Obama’s tax policy? Why does the SEIU have to be the one to do it? When Bill Clinton started his campaign, his first ad featured a ‘middle class tax cut’. Obama hasn’t run even one ad. The irony is that Obama’s tax cut is far more aggressive than any Democrat has ever proposed. I don’t understand why he wouldn’t feature it, and I can’t understand why he allowed McCain to define Obama as a tax raiser. Obama is currently running in the mid-30’s among white voters. He needs to get to 40% to win decisively. Nothing quite touches the soul of white Americans better than a tax cut. So, if I haven’t made myself clear to the campaign: FEATURE THE TAX CUT PROPOSALS!!!. In addition, McCain is taking the ridiculous step of raising taxes on health benefits received from employers. Why on earth have we waited to hit that issue? Je ne sais pas. There are a lot of good ideas for such ads floating on this site. His campaign should use them.
Second, the Polls. Obama’s choice of VP and electoral strategy are coming into question. There is no doubt now that Obama will have to battle it out in blue state battlegrounds (PA, NM, MN, MI, NH, WI). So no matter what the polls say, this race has tightened and is looking more like 2000/04 than 1992/1996. That is the price Obama is paying for not going after McCain hard enough in late July and August when he had a bigger advantage in these states. The good news is that the battleground states remain tight, and it seems that the Obama ad campaign has been effective at blunting the GOP charge. Nonetheless, Ohio looks to be the featured state once again, and although Obama can win it without Ohio, the electoral map looks very narrow without it. In Ohio, polling is all over the map, with more polls giving McCain the edge, but the Qunnipiac Poll giving Obama a +5 lead with a strong performance in southwest Ohio.
Third, Biden. Biden has to show that Obama didn’t make a mistake by picking him, especially when he left a political heavyweight like Clinton on the sidelines. Biden needs to show that he can move the debate and move votes in key battlegrounds and make himself relevant to this campaign.
Fourth, Iraq. The only reason this electoral map initially favored the Democrats is because of the Iraq war. Obama needs to feature it again in an authoritative way. McCain will not end the war. He will. That’s the message, period. Obama really messed up the argument on the surge and needs to boldly use Woodward’s findings as support to quickly pivot to the bottom line – the war needs to end..now!
The week’s news started with the ominous and sobering revelation that Lehman Brothers is going into bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch is getting a government assisted buy-out by Bank of America. This would seem to confirm that the economic crisis is real, serious and more severe from bottom to top than any we have experienced since the Great Depression. It will remain to be seen whether the McCain campaign can be effective in running a campaign of distraction in such an environment. It also remains to be seen whether Obama can maintain a consistency on the stump, in format, content and delivery in order to hammer home the message.