Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll continues to have Obama out in front 48 to McCain's 44 (click here for internals and here for trend.) The MoE is +/- 3 and the numbers refer to a three day sample, although Obama had a strong yesterday single sample (+5, although the MoE on the single day sample is higher, MoE +/- 5.1).
Note Sarah Palin's fav/unfav today is 44/45, a negative spread. This data flies in the face of some of the cable narrative (the print journalists get it, and the bloggers get it). But like using last week's polls in the face of current economic news, it's easier to be lazy than informed. Some people really do connect with her. But maybe the Captains of Industry aren't on the phone saying, "Get me Palin, she can dress a moose." And all of that doesn't mean people will necessarily vote for her, even if they do connect. What the numbers show that in any case, the Palin thing is not universal. Don't forget that it took years before cable was willing to admit Bush was unpopular. They still have never acknowledged getting that wrong.
I also watched folks on cable use week old polls to show that Obama and McCain had similar ratings on the economy. However, Diageo/Hotline, which yesterday also has Obama up by 4, had an interesting graph on the economy question.
Who would do best job handling the economy?*
Gallup, from yesterday, has McCain up by one (47-46) but calls it even. Gallup adds this, suggesting a close election:
The historical record reviewed here certifies that a change in the gap of up to 6 or 7 points would not be unusual between Labor Day and Election Day. This year, the data have already shown a change in the gap of 13 points from the high-water Obama gap to the high-water McCain gap since Labor Day. The unusual timing of the conventions, both of which fell close to Labor Day, makes it difficult to project probabilities of victory for one candidate or the other based on historical references to the calendar. More generally, it may be useful to refer back to Gallup's previous analysis showing that, historically, competitive campaigns in which one candidate did not pull to a clear post-conventions lead remained close (with the lead switching back and forth) right through to the election.
Rasmussen from yesterday has McCain 48 and Obama 47 , and on the economy gets a different take (and are going to be the outlier, since they usually show McCain more trusted on the economy.) Scott Rasmussen will update at ~ 9:30 am.
Taking all the tracking polls, together, there's been movement toward Obama, and it would be incorrect to say that McCain is ahead. In fact, looking at Gallup's graph, it would also be hard to assert McCain had a better bounce if you look at the area under the curve, even if he had a bigger one. But any way you slice it, the bounce is gone nationally.
The state polls don't have trackers, so the jury is still out there (a flurry of new data so far is still unclear, but McCain has made gains.) Mark Blumenthal on battleground state polls:
Three of these surveys show a net numeric gain for Obama, three show a net numeric gain for McCain, though all of the changes are well within sampling error for any of the individual surveys. Amazingly, when I average the six polls from this week and last, I get a 0.3% average drop for each candidate. What does this mean? Most of the differences are probably noise, as vote preferences have been pretty flat in the battleground states over the last week.
More to come today, and every day from now until November.
Update [2008-9-17 8:12:36 by DemFromCT]:: Ipsos/McClatchy from yesterday:
John McCain and Barack Obama remained neck and neck seven weeks before Election Day, but there's been some softening of the support for McCain and his running mate, a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll has found.
The national survey found registered voters split evenly, with 45 percent supporting McCain, the Republican, and 45 percent supporting Obama, the Democrat.
* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 900+ interviews concluded the previous day.