I know one poll and all appropriate caveots. However, knowing a bit about New Mexico and seeing some of these crosstabs, I'm very pleased with this one: Obama 52 McCain 44.
See all the crosstab data here:
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
What really stood out to me are the numbers for Latinos and Bernalillo County.
Obama is absolutely trouncing McCain among Latinos: 69 - 28. I'm not so sure this is wrong given numerous polls that show Obama with a wide margin both nationally and in other state polls. Latinos in New Mexico tend to be a bit more Republican leaning than nationally, especially in Southern New Mexico, but Obama has really been focusing on these voters particularly in the solidly Democratic Northern counties.
Bush barely won New Mexico by snagging 44% in 2004. If McCain can't even get to 30, there is no way he wins here. It could be an outlier, but you've got to love that 41 point split.
The second number that jumped out at me was the 55 - 40 in Bernalillo County (city of Albuquerque). Approximately a third of the voters come from this county, and in order to win, a Republican needs to at least keep it competative. For reference, Gore won this county 49 - 47 and Kerry 52 - 47.
Basically, in order for a Republican to win New Mexico statewide he or she needs to do 3 things: keep Bernalillo County close, get 40% of Hispanics and turn out the evangelicals and oil workers in Little Texas. According to this poll, McCain is failing miserably on two of these tasks. The internals, in other words, are certainly consistent with an 8 point win overall.