With the good news from fivethirtyeight.com that polls have shifted back around toward Obama, it seems time to look at what events could shift the electorate's views between now and election day. Yglesias cites one today, the stray foreign affairs/terrorism event:
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/...
The other possibility would seem to be the debates. To that end, I argue (below the fold) that the debates seem more likely to provide Obama an opportunity than McCain.
The key question is what can shift voters' opinions. I think the clue comes from National Journal's report on their Bush-2004 battleground states surveys (Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, NM):
http://www.nationaljournal.com/...
In particular, notice the closing paragraph:
At a time of discontent, that desire to shuffle the deck can be overwhelming--almost primal. But in these Bush-won battleground states that could tip the election, the fear that McCain represents too much continuity remains closely balanced against the concern that Obama represents too great of a leap into the unknown.
Why are the uncommitted still uncommitted? The article suggests that they favor Obama's policies but see him as too unknown. That suggests that for McCain to win, he will have to coopt Obama's policies. In contrast, Obama needs to be reassuring. This is, in essence, the 1980 debate scenario repeated, with Obama playing Reagan, and we know how that worked.
Here's another piece of evidence that this is the dynamic. Why did McCain pick Palin as VP candidate? He was running a race based on experience. Various sources have reported that an experience-based campaign was going to be a loser, albeit a close one, so he gambled with Palin to shake things up. Why would an experience-based campaign be a loser, given how close polling was (at least prior to the Democratic convention)? I'm wondering if McCain figured the remaining voters who were uncommitted because of uncertainty over Obama's relatively few years in governance would swing to Obama after watching him in the debates and seeing that he wasn't a naif.
I wonder how the media will frame the debates. If Obama holds even on foreign affairs, will it appear to be a win because of this reassurance factor?
In the meantime, a reminder that the election is about us. I'm home sick today, so couldn't do much but read, nap, drink fluids, think a bit, and post this diary. But when healthy we can volunteer, donate, and otherwise do what we can to bring the change we need.
Yes we can!