Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (7/28-30 results)
McConnell (R) 50 (49)
Lunsford (D) 37 (38)
Remarkably little movement in the last month and a half, and McConnell is right on that "safe" 50 percent mark, so it looks tough. But check out this line from the internals:
Democrats:
McConnell: 19
Lunsford: 65
Undecided: 16
These are southern Dems, so you can always expect a significant proportion to defect to the Republican in federal races. But a big chunk of that undecided are Dems who distrust Lunsford given his history of stabbing Democrats in the back (by such things as endorsing a Republican for governor a few years back). Lunsford has worked to repair that damage and appears genuine in his efforts, but as we've seen with some Clinton primary supporters, distrust can linger on.
Those undecideds wouldn't be enough to win the race, of course, but it would tighten it up. Obviously, Lunsford still needs to bring some of those McConnell Democrats home, as well as reverse the independent numbers (currently breaking for McConnell 52-36).
As for the presidential, this was a 56-35 race back in late July, and it's a 55-37 race today. Again, no real movement from last time.
KENTUCKY POLL RESULTS – SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Kentucky Poll was conducted from September 15 through September 17, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 274 (46%)
Republicans 228 (38%)
Other 98 (16%)
18-29 100 (17%)
30-44 194 (32%)
45-59 192 (32%)
60+ 114 (19%)
White 527 (88%)
Black 52 (9%)
Other 21 (3%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitch McConnell? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 34% 22% 21% 6%
MEN 19% 38% 19% 18% 6%
WOMEN 15% 30% 25% 24% 6%
DEMOCRATS 4% 24% 33% 33% 6%
REPUBLICANS 32% 47% 9% 6% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 17% 32% 21% 21% 9%
18-29 12% 30% 29% 27% 2%
30-44 19% 36% 17% 18% 10%
45-59 15% 31% 26% 23% 5%
60+ 22% 39% 16% 16% 7%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bruce Lunsford? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 35% 31% 13% 9%
MEN 10% 32% 35% 15% 8%
WOMEN 14% 38% 27% 11% 10%
DEMOCRATS 18% 48% 15% 6% 13%
REPUBLICANS 5% 21% 49% 22% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 32% 35% 14% 10%
18-29 15% 40% 27% 10% 8%
30-44 10% 33% 33% 14% 10%
45-59 13% 38% 29% 12% 8%
60+ 10% 31% 35% 16% 8%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Bruce Lunsford the Democrat or Mitch McConnell the Republican?
MCCONNELL LUNSFORD UNDECIDED
ALL 50% 37% 13%
MEN 54% 34% 12%
WOMEN 46% 40% 14%
DEMOCRATS 19% 65% 16%
REPUBLICANS 87% 5% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 36% 12%
WHITE 57% 33% 10%
BLACK 6% 68% 26%
OTHER 6% 62% 32%
18-29 46% 43% 11%
30-44 54% 33% 13%
45-59 48% 38% 14%
60+ 56% 30% 14%
DISTRICT 1 52% 36% 12%
DISTRICT 2 55% 33% 12%
DISTRICT 3 41% 47% 12%
DISTRICT 4 54% 32% 14%
DISTRICT 5 52% 35% 13%
DISTRICT 6 50% 36% 14%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 37% 2% 6%
MEN 59% 35% 2% 4%
WOMEN 51% 39% 2% 8%
DEMOCRATS 26% 68% 1% 5%
REPUBLICANS 87% 4% 2% 7%
OTHER 65% 27% 4% 4%
WHITE 62% 31% 2% 5%
BLACK 4% 87% - 9%
OTHER 10% 71% - 19%
18-29 47% 42% 2% 9%
30-44 59% 34% 2% 5%
45-59 53% 40% 2% 5%
60+ 61% 32% 1% 6%
DISTRICT 1 58% 34% 1% 7%
DISTRICT 2 59% 33% 2% 6%
DISTRICT 3 40% 51% 3% 6%
DISTRICT 4 60% 32% 1% 7%
DISTRICT 5 57% 36% 2% 5%
DISTRICT 6 56% 36% 2% 6%