I dismiss all Insider Advantage polls because they are basically a GOP propaganda shop intended to shape a pro-GOP narrative. But I found this one buried in the Real Clear Politics site and thought I'd put it up here in case no one else had just for the sake of having a little fun about polls when possible.
Even as Obama is clearly surging we have some rather dubious state polls claiming McCain is ahead +7 in VA (no way!) + 8 in FL (again, no way), tied in IA (yeah right!) and narrowly behind in PA and WI (come on man, wait until the state polls catch up with the nationals and you'll see both of those states return to the blue fold!).
We've all had to put up with Rasmussen's outlier polls (their national and state polls don't look so hot anymore, do they?!), SUSA's hit or miss polls where unusually high numbers of African Americans pledge support to McCain, and unknown orgs who exist for the sole purpose of spinning a narrative to the media.
So I am going to take a stab at spinning a pro-Obama poll for our own enjoyment. This Insider Advantage poll gives Obama a whopping 10 point lead over McCain in the State of Colorado: 51-41. The poll was taken on September 17th (yesterday) and the MOE is 4.3%. Folks, if this poll is correct, the race in the west is over and the GOP can cry uncle. Remember: this is a GOP leaning organization.
Obama leads in every age demographic except the 65+ demo. McCain is ahead among white voters by 2 points while Obama dominates the Hispanic vote. Obama also leads among African Americans 70-26, which of course severely undercounts Obama's support among African Americans.
What I found most interesting about this poll is that it identifies a trend that even our own DKos poll has not yet picked up: erosion of support for McCain among Republicans. In this poll Obama leads 85-11 among Democrats, which is within the range of national numbers. However, McCain only leads among Republicans 80-14 while the two split indies (42-41 McCain).
The only reason why McCain has a chance in this election is that our poll and others show that since the GOP convention, McCain is getting around 90% GOP support. If GOP support begins to slip a little, even 2 or 3 percent, then Obama will win all of the battleground states with relative ease.
Is this poll a leading indicator that the bounce among Republicans is playing itself out? After all, why would Obama be tied in Indiana, Florida, North Carolina and slightly ahead in Virginia and Ohio if GOP support was still rock solid?
The trend I am looking closely at from this point forward is McCain's support among Republicans. It will make the difference between a solid but narrow victory for Obama and a blowout.
Are there sane Republicans who still call themselves Republicans? I haven't seen many (if any), but perhaps the reduced crowds at Palin events and the busing from out of the area to fill crowds are simply masking the fact that more GOP voters are not as enthused about their ticket as we may have thought. Time to stay tuned.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...