Here's why Obama will win Washington no problem!
Despite the polls one week after the Republican convention showing Obama's lead in WA dwindling from 18 points to only 2 points and despite the fact that McCain still considers WA a tossup (not sure why they even think they even had a chance?). Washington is a moderate to liberal state which last voted Republican in 1984. The state is dominated by Seattle and three populous counties in the western part of the state. There is the very populous and very liberal city of Seattle (est. pop. 600,000) and surrounding King County (est. pop. 2.0 million), by far the state's largest county. Just 20 miles to the south is the more moderate Pierce County which in encompases the city of Tacoma (est. population 210,000) and two huge military bases, Fort Lewis & McChord. And just 15 miles to the north is also a moderate county, Snohomish County, encompassing the city of Everett (est. pop. 105,000) and has a large Naval base. The eastern side of the state is conservative and heavily Republican but sparsely populated compared to the west. The largest county east is Spokane County, encompassing the city of Spokane (est. pop. 200,000).
20 YEAR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTORAL HISTORY:
1988 - Dukakis 51%, Bush, 48%
1992 - Clinton 44%, Bush 32%, Perot 24%
1996 - Clinton 50%, Dole 37%, Perot 12%
2000 - Gore 50%, Bush 44%, Nader 5%
2004 - Kerry 53%, Bush 45%
20 YEAR GUBERNATORIAL HISTORY:
ALL Democrats. The last time a Republican has been elected governor was 1980.
CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION: U.S. Senate - 2 Ds, 0 Rs; U.S. House 7 Ds, 2 Rs.
OTHER NOTABLES ABOUT WASHINGTON:
*WA elected the nation's 2nd woman governor, Democrat Dixie Lee Ray in 1976.
*WA currently has two women U.S. Senators, both are Democrats and the incumbent Democratic governor is also a woman.
*In 1996 WA elected the nation's first Asian-American governor (outside of Hawaii), a son of Chinese immigrants, Gary Locke. He was elected by a landslide over an ultra-conservative Christian woman, Ellen Craswell, who stated during the campaign that she wanted to bring "godly people" into government.
*In 1988 Jesse Jackson placed a strong 2nd in the Democratic caucuses.
WASHINGTON COUNTIES 2004 ELECTION RESULTS:
King - Kerry 66%, Bush 32%
Pierce - Kerry 52%, Bush 46%
Snohomish - Kerry 54%, Bush 45%
Spokane (Eastern WA) -Bush 55%, Kerry, 43%.
There are other counties in Western Washington, such as San Juan County, in which the environment is an extremely important issue and Democrats typically win lopsided victories, even bigger than in King County, but they are sparsely populated. Republicans typically win lopsided 60-40 victories in the sparsely populated counties in the Eastern part of the state.
Given this kind of political landscape and history, Washington should be a lock for Obama despite the recently closing polls suggesting it's a toss-up. As Palin's novelty wears off and the convention bounce subsides, later polls should show Obama back in a double digit lead in this state.
(UPDATE): A commenter has brought to my attention that the Seattle Times, the state's flagship newspaper, has endorsed Barack Obama.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/...