Okay, we have not yet had the first debate. And as the turmoil in the financial markets has shown, there is more than enough time for unexpected major events to dominate the news, and thus either suck up the oxygen from the candidates or put one or another campaign in a light they might rather avoid. And I claim absolutely no expertise. And thus I am also prepared to make an absolute fool of myself, regardless of what polling data says right now.
I do not think the presidential election will be close, not in the electoral college. And while I absolutely believe in keeping pedal to the medal in raising funds, registering voters, putting in place GOTV, and all the minutiae of campaigning, I refuse to buy into the paranoia of many Democrats I know who are sure (a) we will yet find a way to blow it; (b) the genius of Karl Rove will once again, this time through his protege Steve Schmidt, turn our strengths into weaknesses; or (c) the dirty tricks and manipulation so many are sure are being planned will be sufficient to give us a McBush-Quaylin administration. I don't buy it.
Let me explain why.
Whenever I hear any of the traditional worries from Democrats, I ask one question: name one state Kerry carried that you EXPECT to see McCain win. Usually there is silence. IF there are temporary blips in polls I might here NH, PA, or MN mentioned, but usually not for long, and usually not with much force. I think not selecting Pawlenty will be resented by some in the state, and I do not see the Governor working with any ethusiasm for the national Republican ticket.
As for MI, McCain has said that jobs are not coming back, and with Kilptarick now being out of office the chances of slamming Obama for any connection with someone corrupt are severely diminished. So for the sake of this discussion, let's start with a baseline that Obama keeps all Kerry states. That is 252 electoral votes.
At this point IA seems off the table for McCain. That's 7. And for a variety of reasons, including McCain's flip-flopping on immigration, I am inclined to put NM pretty firmly also in Obama's column. That's 5 more, for a total of 264 EVs. If I am correct so far, then McCain has to run the table to pull out a narrow 274-264 victory.
I tend to make mental ajdustments on polling data. First, on national polls, I don't pay them all that much weight except for trends, because I know McCai's numbers are being propped up by huge margins in some Southern states and in plces like Utah and Idaho and Oklahoma. I acknowledge that the breadth of Obama's margin in the area defined as the West is somewhat similarly distorted by California, but think it is significant that it is not just the poll paid for by Markos that shows the tendency of of OBama winning three out of four of the traditional divides of NE,Midwest, and West while losing only South.
Next, on state polls. Some are laughable. Here the one in Virginia put together by Quentin Kidd of Christopher Newport University had a sample that was only 12% African-American, in a state whose population is almost 20% black, and which had a black turnout in 2004 in the range of its share of the population. It is ridiculous to believe that the percentage of turnout that will be black would drop.
Most are not that laughable. But throughout the primaries many of even the more accurate polls tended to understate the percentage of participants who would be black and/or younger, and thereby understated how well Obama would do. Many pollsters still seem to be using models of turnout that reflect the demographics of 2004, and do not take into consideration the additional turnout, especially of blacks, that Obama will draw. And whether or not cellphones are called, I still believe that the models also understate the percentage of the vote that will be at the young end of the voting scale.
To be sure, there may be some additional turnout of older whites who are opposed to a Black man, of some people who still think Obama is Muslim. I do not see any massive additional to the 2004 numbers of evangelical or pentecostal voters because of Palin being on the ticket: remember how many states had anti-gay-marriage initiatives to maximize that group in 2004.
So what does this mean? And why do I say I am out on a limb? Why am I saying it will not be close?
I have already given you 264 EVs as a base. Let me now work my way through a number of states that I think clinch it.
CO (9) - Hispanics, the changing nature of the statewide politics as shown by Ritter and the state legislature, and McCain blowing it on Colorado River Compact
NV (5) - Hispanics, corruption in state Republican party, inconsistency by McCain on Yucca Mountain, etc. Also, look at the changes in party registration in the past year.
NE (1) - like ME, EVs are distributed by CD, even though neither state has ever split. But this time Dems have strong candidates in at least one House race, Scott Kleeb for the Senate, who even if they are still long shots may increase the Dem turnout. And Hagel's dissing of Palin and thus of McCain, and his refusal to endorse McCain despite having been one of the few Senators who supported him in 2000 will carry some weight.
If I am correct on these 15 EVs, the election is already over - that brings the total to 279.
But I am not done. Let me saw through the branch on which I sit a bit more. No, a whole lot more.
VA (13) - last night I was at a fundraiser for Mark Warner, who has a huge advantage in polls and COH over his opponent, also a former governor, Jim Gilmore. Why this is important is that Warner is so popular that he brings out some marginal voters. He is also a vocal supporter of Obama, and has campaigned with him. And Mark has been endorsed by the Republicans who held the posts of Senate Finance Chair (John Chichester) and House Appropriations Chair (Vince Callahan), in part because of how fiscally irresponsible Gilmore was as governor. That will play to Obama's advantage as well. Dems are running competitive races in 4 currently Republican House districts, and even in some that are probably out of reach, the fact that there are active candidates brings out some marginal democratic voters. McCain's only office in the state is his national hdqtrs in Arlington. Obama now has around 30 offices open around the state. And with the exception of the previously cited poll by Quentin Kidd, recent polling has shown Obama either only a few points behind to SUSA having him 4 points up. We have a sufficient black population that is motivated to make me feel reasonably comfortable that the Old Dominion will be Dem for the first time since 1964. I note that the state has tilted increasingly Blue, with two consecutive Dems winning the Governor's spot, and Webb's narrow win in 2006. Further, the richest area is the northern part that is increasingly Democratic without the traditional Virginia connections. I do not expect to see retiring Republican senator John Warner offering any meaningful support to McCain. And the man who built the Republican party in the state, former Governor Linwood Holton, is Tim Kaine's father-in-law and is now out supporting Obama.
That's 292 so far. And I am far from done. Let's look at the two biggies.
OH (20) - yes, it broke our hearts last time. And there were all kinds of problems with the voting: because there was a Republican Governor (Taft) and a Republican Secretary of State (Blackwell). But they have been replace, respectively, by Ted Strickland and Jennifer Brunner. And remember that Strickland has roots in the Appalachian part of the state that might be most difficult for Obama. Also remember that OH borders PA, where Biden has roots albeit at the other end of the state. I expect to see the campaign use Biden in the Pittsburgh market in part because of its reach into OH and WV (more about that below). I think the McCain campaign is trying to rerun 2004 in OH, and I do not expect them to be successful. This may be the closest of the calls I will make on big states, but then again, McCain has some real problems on the domestic issues that matter in this state, and people like Strickland and Sherrod Brown will help to hammer them home.
We are now over 300 EVS, with 312.
FL (27). This is the biggie. This is the one I would not consider except that Palin is McCain's running mate, perhaps the only choice he could have made that would put this on the table for Obama. Somehow I do not think Joe Lieberman will be successful in offsetting the damage she does in the Jewish community: state chair for Pat Buchanan, the remarks about the Israel by the minister. The Obama campaign was always strongly committed to this state, noting the hundreds of thousands of Black voters who did not turn out last time. This is another state where changes in party registration shares show a clear tilt towards the Dems. And this is also a state where strong support by the Clintons could make a huge difference.
Add FL and we are at 339, and McCain is under 200 EVs.
Here let me digress for a moment. First, I hope that as I am doing this with almost no sleep I have not made any embarrassing arithmetic errors. Second, I note that Bill Clinton defeated GHW Bush by 5 points in 1992 and won 370 EVs (and relavitively narrowly lost NC and AZ and VA). Obama does not have to win by double digits to have a substantial win in the electoral college. I am presuming a national popular vote margin in the range of 3-7 points in making this set of predictions.
IF my figures are correct (and as I just noted, I may be slightly off on the margins) and I am not totally bonkers, we are already looking at 339-199. Only I truly think it will be more. Let me consider three additional states I think may tilt our way, starting by listing them, and then explaining.
WV (5)
IN (11)
NC (15)
WV might seem like a stretch to some people. But we have an ace in the hole in Joe Biden. When his first wife died, among the few Washington figures who came to the funeral were the then Senate Majority Whip and his chief of staf, Bob Byrd and Nick Rahall. While Byrd cannot travel around to campaign, I can see him doing tv and radio. Rahall is in a part of the state that normally would be very hard, except his wife is sure that a visit by Biden and possibly one by Michelle could maximize the Dem turnout enough to flip the state. The Obama campaign will have 4 offices open, and this is a state where Bill and Hillary could really make a difference. TV out of Pittsburgh will help in the Western panhandle (WV has 2), and the Eastern Panhandle is in the DC metro area. This could be a surprise to some people, but while I would not be positive, I feel good about our chances. We also have a competitive House race in the Eastern part of the state, again maximizing Dem turnout;.
Let me do NC next. Recent polling has shown a tightening. There are two competitive state-wide races, for Governor and for Liddy Dole's senate race. The Republican senate committee seems to be abandoning Dole, while the DSCC is putting money into Kay Hagan's race against her. There are several House races drawing attention, with Larry Kissell viewed as the best shot at picking off an incumbent: one knowledgeable figure in the state is pretty sure Larry will defeat Hayes this time. There are two other races that have some interest, Daniel Johnson against the obnoxious Pat McHenry, and I have been told of internal Democratic polls that put Roy Carter within striking distance of Virginia Foxx in the 5th CD. The state has a Black population over 21%. And during the primary the Obama campaign did a good job of putting down the basic infrastructure, and of identifying supporters and turning them out. Again, this is not a sure thing, but is a state about which I increasingly think our chances have improved. I can imagine that using military surrogates to talk about the impact of McCain's policies on the military, and his lack of meaningful support on veteran's issues can also make a difference. And it is 15 EVs.
Add WV and NC, that's 20 more EVs, and we are at 359.
And the state that might tell us early how the night is going to go is IN. I believe their polls close at 6 local time, which means the entire state is closed at 7 Eastern time. I note that despite the strong support Evan Bayh gave Hillary, Obama nearly took the state in the primary. Like NC, the primary effort put into place the structure necessary to win in November. Voter registration efforts have continued. I have heard from a couple of Congressional campaigns, including that of our own Barry Welsh, of how different the numbers and the reactions seem to be this cycle up and down the ticket. Obama has some advantage in being known because a chunk of the state is in the Chicago media market. Add the 11 EVs here and we are at 370-168.
Are other states possible? Yeah, I suppose one could look at ND, MT, and possibly even AZ, AR and at a stretch MS. I don't go there, because I don't think we have to.
So let me recapitulate.
Kerry states 252
NM 5
NV 5
CO 9
IA 7
NE 1
VA 13
OH 20
FL 27
WV 5
NC 15
IN 11
That totals 370, which I would say is not close.
So perhaps I am nuts. Perhaps I am overly optimistic. Perhaps.
But even if I am wrong about several of these states, look how many possibilities there are for Obama to win. And if McCain cannot pick off a Kerry state, how he has to run the table. Which I do not think he can do.
The first debate is next Friday. At the end of that debate, much of the country that has not yet paid close attention will have seen McCain and Obama on the same stage at the same time. In McCain they will see someone who is old, who does not project energy. In Obama they will see something else. And if Obama comes across as at least credible as a president, . . . to what then can McCain turn, even more negativity?
Okay, I am done sawing, and the limb and I are now in free-fall. Now I have to get back to serious things, including correcting student tests. And also making phone calls, doing lit drops, and perhaps even an LTE or two? In other words, we still should get out there and work like hell. And money will make a difference, not only in the electoral college, but for the many important down-ballot races as well.
Peace