Move on Chuck Todd, I do this much better.
In politics, imagine ranking each state from 1-50 in terms of most likely to vote Obama v. most likely to vote McCain. Think of a tug of war rope with the bandana tied in the middle with Team A all on one side and Team B all on the other with the strongest components nearest the anchor. For example, states like Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Masschusetts would be the Obama anchors while states like Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Alabama, and Tennessee would be the McCain anchors. If McCain was winning Rhode Island or Obama was winning Idaho, then we'd be talking about the possibility of all 50 states going to one candidate.
As you move to the middle of the straight line from the ends, states move from definitely X to likely X to probably X to barely X. Eventually you reach the middle, that state or group of states which is the 50-50 mark. That means every state to one side goes Obama and every state to the other side goes McCain.
As of now I comfortably project that Obama will win every Kerry state plus Iowa and New Mexico for 264 electoral votes. Moreover, I currently have 4 states as tossups meaning they are 50-50 at this point. Thus Obama is likely to win 2 of them if the election was today although I personally have him winning all 4.
On the McCain side I have him winning every Bush state except Iowa and New Mexico. I also have 4 states listed as tossups and 6 states where McCain is hanging by a thread. (And the way things are going, all 6 of these states may become tossups very soon.)
On the Obama side, if McCain was going to pick off states that were part of that Obama 264, they would be, in order of likeliness, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. McCain might try to make a play at Wisconsin or Minnesota but probably will give up soon. If McCain wins 3 of these 6 states, that means he has also won every state currently on his side of the tug of war bandana.
On the McCain side there are 7 states that McCain hangs by a thread as of today but could be picked off by Obama. They are, in order of likeliness of a pickup for Obama, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia, the latter of which has entered the picture for the first time in months. If you see Obama win any of these 7 states, he's your next President because that means he will have won the Obama 264 and the 4 tossup states. If the center of the rope is here, we're golden.
The 4 states that will tell you who has become the next President are what I've termed the CON V states. They are Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. Repeat that over and over again. Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. These are the barometer states of this election at this point. If Obama has won all 4, then he's maintained the Kerry 252 plus NM and Iowa as well. If McCain has won all 4, then he's won Florida and Montana also.
The advantage Obama has is that if my projections are correct, then all he needs is 1 of these CON V states while McCain would need all 4.
Now is the time to focus on
A) Preserving and strengthening the lean Obama states.
B) Busting our asses to win the CON V states.
C) Working hard to win the IFMMNNW Seven.
As of today I project that Obama will win all CONV states, Florida, Montana plus either Indiana or Missouri for 352 electoral college votes to McCain's 183. However, let's work harder. Right wing conservatism needs to be vanquished in this country and if they get 183 electoral college votes, it's still too many in my book.
Everybody has their own way of contributing to this campaign. I leave it to you to do whatever you think is best.