One of the great fears of progressive's is that as Sen. Obama continues to lead in the polls, John McCain will in the closing days play the race card. I think this year it won't work. I will explain at length, why in my opinion, it won't work. I would also welcome, others to look at this work, in greater depth. I'm going to divide the "race card target states" into "two zones". I'll explain the two zones and explain my reasoning for placing them in each. In the states I write about I will further target "racial zones'. These are areas a democrat could win, but where the race card could swing votes the other way.
In other words if Obama loses votes in rural Alabama due to race, it doesn't matter as he would have lost those votes anyways. Likewise if he gains votes in Vermont of Washington, D.C. becuase of his race it also doesn't matter. It's only votes that he should have won but loses do to race that matter. I'm also concentrating my work in swing states. I will not target these areas down to the county, just in general location.
UPDATE: When I say playing the race card I mean a Willy Horton, Harold Ford "Call Me" type late hitting ad.
ZONE 1 RACIAL CLASHES DUE TO TOUGH ECONOMIC TIMES.
These are mainly in the rust belt swing state zone. I'm defining it as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsynania, (Indiana?). This is where bad economics have lead to a shinking "pie". The racial unrest in these states were caused by manufactoring jobs closing at the same time the civil rights movement unleased social changes. Many folks in these areas remember that economic decline coinsided with intergration. Many people have drawn the conclusion that cooralation = causation, a logical fallacy, and racial attitudes among "down scale" whites hardened.
MICHIGAN
The state I was most worried about was Michigan. Michigan's racial zones are the suburbs of Flint and Detroit. As the auto industry evaporated, both cities became run by black politicians. Many people looking to push balme have pointed to the politicians and not business class. McCain was gaining traction here, until two things happened. One the removal of Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is a huge boon to Obama. Unfortunately it's a sister soldier moment. Many people in Michigan who before were saying "see what Black people did when they ran Detroit" saw a Democratic Governor, and a Black Democratic council remove a mayor, viewed as a failure. This caused this argument to evaporate, the same way Bill Clinton showed he would stand up to "Civil right actavist exstremist" (this is not my term but it's what they were called then).
I think the Macomb County Michigan GOP's decision to use foreclosures to cage voters also helps Obama here. Most voter intimidation tactics are seen as effecting "other" people. What I mean is Mr. and Mrs. Middle American can't see themselves excluded from an election by the normal GOP tactics. The Florida false fellon trick 2000 (I wouldn't commit a crime), or from getting challenge due to a move (poor people hop around more then middle class people). But the housing crisis hits middle America. "People like them" are losing their homes. So getting kicked out of a polling site because you lost your home is seen as somthing that could happen to them.
I noticed a big Obama bounce in MI after this story broke. As a state with a large forclosure problem. I think this could swing a lot of votes. His way, and backfire on the GOP!
PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylavania has two major racial zones. Pittsburg/Erie and the Philly suburbs. Looking at the Philladelpian mayors race I was struck by how the race issue was less prevelant then in past decades. I don't see any issue their inflaming racial attitudes to the point of making it primed for thsi type off attack to work. In the west Barack did better in the primaries in the appalachian parts of Pennsylavania then ANYWHERE else in America. Once again as Pitt has started to shift to a knowledge economy, the racial climate has changed. The Erie area I'm not sure about there is the degree of Cleveland, Ohio "refuge" vote, but it's not enough to swing the state. Some would argue the Scranton area should be a third zone, I'm not sure. But Biden plays well here so it may just be he will over ride any feeling here. Lastly there is also some overlap in Pennsylavia with the Zone 2 I will discuss later.
OHIO
Ohio is another state this could work in. Cincinnati has had an ugly racial climate for years. But as I wrote in my diary Real Clear Politics: Palin Doesn't Matter, Numbers Do!
In my opinion most of the White Ohio vote that voted against gay marriage would most likely be the same ones who would vote on the basis of race, only less so (homophobia is more "exceptable" then racism in America) so I wouldn't expect to see a larger turn out in anti-black voters then anti-gay voter. So 2004 is the high water mark for "fear" voting.
But Ohio also has the greatest potential from the Zone 1 states of the black vote increase leading to flipping the state.
In Ohio there are 860,000 eligible black voters. Only 380,000 voted in 2004. (Remember Kerry lost by only 120,000 votes). I am estimating a CONSERVATIVE 20% rise in the Black votes. I'm basing this on history. Kennedy with Catholics, Dukakis with Orthodox, and Jesse with Blacks in the 1984 primary, saw rises of 25-28%. JFK Catholic voter increase. 64% of eligible Blacks will vote in 2008. Let's again look at Ohio. One reason Ohio is more red then Pennsylvania is that Blacks in Ohio vote at about an 8% lower rate. We'll examine a 64% turn out. 860,000 @ 64% is 170,400 (the difference between 380,000/860,000 or 44%, and 64% of 860,000 is 170,400). Kerry lost the state by 120,000 votes! Also Al Gore at 91% is the highest vote percentage for a candidate since reconstruction. Bush because of the anti-gay marriage amendments got 16% of the Black vote in Ohio. Let's say Obama gets 93% about 2% higher then Gore. That's 34,200 votes that would switch + 93% of 170,400 new votes = 192,672.
This is all arguable (hey I'm making an argument) but I would say the race card would be a push at best in these states. But the big reason I don't fear this are the zone two states.
ZONE TWO CULTURE CLASH ZONES.
I calling these the backlash against rightwing conservatism states. These are states where the GOP has been more conservative then the state as a whole, AND where there has been a major part of the social conservatism "movement" apparatus. These states are Virginia, Colorado. and small slice of Pennsylvania.
VIRGINIA
Virginia as the home of Liberty University and Jerry Farwell have gotten a better look then much of America, and they don't like what they have seen. Remember the GOP front runner was going to be George Allen, but his Macaca moment ruined his career. Virginia didn't like this racial singed attack. As much as people like to mention the "Wilder effect", the bottom line was he Doug Wilder won the governorship. He was the nations first black governor since reconstruction and it took 17 years for another state to elect a black governor (Duval Patrick in Massachusetts). He also left the governorship relatively popular. Virginia was ahead of the curve on race, not behind it! If anything Virginia is more midatlantic and less southern today.
COLORADO
Colorado is another state I can see this backfiring in. Colorado is the headquarters of Dr. James Dobson and his weekly fatwa's. It also is the home of Tom Tancredo. Well the funny thing is Colorado, long seen as a red conservative state, has a progressive history on these things. Colorado has a women senator back when that was rare. It has elected both a Native American and a Latino to the Senate. Remember Sen. Ken Salazar was elected at the same time the Tancredo's of the world were at there height in the political culture. Further contributing factors to my opinion are: Denver was one of the first major cities to elect a black mayor. Denver did this with one of the smallest percentage black population of major US cities (top 30 in size). Denver is also the home of the first black (partially) owned major sports franchise (The Denver Nuggets were for a period of years). I can't see a state with that history going for the race card. I can only see it backfiring.
FLORIDA
The race card would have wild results here. Most of the soft dixiecrat democrats who would defect have most likely have already done so. But the effect amongsts conservative Jews would be interesting. There is about a 5% gap between Clinton's and Obama's Jewish support, this could backfire. Would older Jewish voters support an overt race card move. I don't think they would. The other wild card is the Latino community. Remember most Floridian Latinos are of Caribbean descent. Large numbers of Cuban-Americans, Peurto Ricans, and Dominican-Americans have Black blood. These are all groups who might turn on this type of attack. Also most evidence have shown that most Latino and Blacks both revolt against attacks they see as racist against the other group. This is why the pundit talking point "Latinos won't vote for a Black man" has backfired Obamas Latin support has shot up, and this is why the GOP's attempt to use immigration to peal off Black democratic support in 2006 backfired and didn't work. Interestingly enough a large part of the Christian rights apparatus is in the Orlando area, this is a much overlooked fact. Also Florida has elected a Latino to state wide office so I'm not sure this ploy would work here. I think the race card in Florida would be a push at best.
GETTING BACK TO PENNSYLVANIA
The reason I placed parts of Pennsylvania in this zone is the former Sen. Rick Santorum effect. I think he was part of the culture clash backlash. Also Arlen Specter being challenged in a primary from the right also helps.
In these the zone two states I see the race card backfiring!
By my count the race card would tilt CO and VA are way. It would be a push in Pennsylvania and Florida. Maybe a slight help in Ohio and Michigan. The problem is that any strategy that cost Colorado and Virginia while gaining Michigan would still be a loser because Obama would win under that scenario considering his lead in New Mexico and Iowa.