This is the third installment of my weekly series on the 2008 Presidential campaign. This column provides a summary of the prior week’s events and some analysis, observations and recommendations to help the Obama campaign achieve an election victory.
BOUNCE OVER – IT’S THE MELTDOWN STUPID!!!
This week was all about the economy. The meltdown of the financial markets is a watershed event in this campaign. The troubles of Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, AIG among other potential victims (e.g., Washington Mutual (or are they perps?)) brought home the sense that the day of reckoning for the absence of regulation, speculative investments (often difficult to distinguish from reckless gambling) and unethical business practices has arrived. This meltdown smacked the country as hard as Katrina smacked the New Orleans’ levees.
Though Obama had begun to climb in the polls during the 4 previous days, John McCain’s bounce was completely eviscerated when he began with a series of contradictory statements, first claiming that ‘the fundamentals of our economy are sound’, then backtracking, then arguing for a commission to study the problem, then abandoning it in favor of firing SEC Chairman Christopher Cox, followed by contradictory statements on government bailouts. At the end of the week, John McCain was left to blame the breakdown on Wall St. and the Bush government’s regulation of financial markets on Barack Obama, and made a linkage to Franklin Raines (who is African American), the former head of Fannie Mae, which was made clear in an ad. To say that McCain was attempting to inject race into the debate at the last minute is not a stretch or the ravings of a conspiracy theorist. The fact that AP’s Ron Fournier (whose ties to McCain are well known and whose objectivity has been questioned, fairly, even by members of the media) followed up with a rather slanted article (to put it mildly) on the alleged issue of racial discrimination hurting Obama, is further proof that the race issue is how McCain will seek to change the subject when he falls behind. The SNL skit on McCain and his ad people skewered him, and accurately captured the sophomoric and self-serving nature of one of the sleaziest campaigns we’ve ever seen.
McCain had further problems with Sarah Palin. She made an often forgiveable gaffe of referring to a ‘Palin-McCain’ administration. However, no one on the GOP side seemed to take the gaffe lightly, and an alarmed McCain camp abruptly changed her schedule to cancel a number of appearances and to limit her activities on the trail. Palin also continued to make false statements on the trail, and her willingness to make inaccurate statements about seemingly small matters baffled many in the media. She also continued to embroil herself in the Troopergate scandal. Her team went into full stonewall mode, but the committee pursuing the investigation insisted that they would release a report in early October, before the election. The only potential highlight for the McCain-Palin ticket was a rally outside St. Paul which drew around 10,000 people, suggesting that McCain still retains support in GOP strongholds in a key battleground state. McCain and Palin made appearances in Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio and Minnesota.
Barack Obama
Barack Obama continued a string of campaign appearances before large audiences with prepared remarks. He continued to focus on the economy using a template speech first unveiled in Manchester, NH the week before. Obama pounded away on the economy and attacked McCain at every turn. As the financial crisis became the dominant news story, Obama worked into his template speech several points on the matter, diagnosing the problem, attacking McCain and proposing solutions. Obama had rallies in Elko and Las Vegas, NV, Grand Junction/Pueblo/Denver, CO, Hispanola, NM, Miami, Daytona Beach and Jacksonville, FL, and Charlotte, NC. The rallies drew large crowds, especially in Las Vegas, Jacksonville, and Charlotte. Another interesting aspect to Obama’s rallies is that he went into several Republican and swing cities, whereas McCain largely stuck to GOP strongholds.
Joe Biden also made an impact on the campaign trail for the first time since the convention. Biden held a bus tour throughout northern Ohio and drew impressive crowds of his own, even in rural counties that voted for Bush in 2004 by wide margins. Biden also hit the interview circuit and continued to demonstrate his passion and mastery of the issues while continuing to deliver attacks on McCain. Even when Biden strayed off script on the issue of taxes on the wealthy being a ‘patriotic duty’, his impassioned, cut the crap defense of the statement before Katie Couric put that issue to bed as far as the media were concerned.
The other news for the Obama-Biden ticket were the polls. What had been an average 3 point national deficit turned into around a 3-5 point lead. Blue battleground states shifted more strongly to Obama, and McCain lost leads in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. Iowa and New Mexico shifted strongly to Obama, and those states are no longer competitive for McCain in the view of most polling observers.
The week ended with the announcement of a Bush Administration plan for a 750 billion dollar bailout of Wall St. While Obama initially voiced cautious approval to the idea of a massive bailout in order to stabilize markets, preserve confidence and prevent a depression, his tone shifted to criticize, if not, outright oppose the plan as currently constituted. Obama has taken an important political stand by opposing a blank check for Wall St., while insisting on some protection for homeowners and some benefit to taxpayers (transparency, regulation and an ability to recoup the loan).
ANALYSIS
Last week was Obama’s best week of the campaign by far. I had previously stated that Biden needed to add some value to the ticket and he made his mark this week as the change in the country’s mood made the media more receptive to him. With Sarah Palin essentially weakened as a political force because of her scandals, erroneous statements and lack of credibility on the issue of experience and readiness, Joe Biden’s attacks on John McCain hit their mark without rebuttal. Biden also campaigned aggressively in Ohio and seemed to resonate with the working class voters of the region. If Joe keeps this up, we’re going to have to call him ‘Smokin’ Joe’.
As for Obama, he was presented in his best format (on the stump, behind a podium in front of large crowds reading prepared remarks) and connected on the economy in the way that many Democrats had demanded for months. He featured his tax cut plan front and center, and with the help of Joe Biden, made an impact on voters that he will cut taxes more than John McCain, and that 95% of Americans will get a break.
He laced into McCain relentlessly and mercilessly, needling him at every moment, but always finding a way to pivot back to the issues and the concerns of the American people. Obama’s willingness to campaign in GOP areas was impressive and reveals something that top line poll numbers don’t indicate. Judging by the crowds and reception in GOP leaning areas, Obama appears to be outperforming Kerry in counties carried by Bush and McCain appears to be underperforming Bush. The trend has been firmly established in Iowa and New Mexico, which one can simply add to the blue column. The trend is also evident in the red state battlegrounds of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. If 20,000 people showed up in deep red Duval County (Jacksonville), then it suggests that excitement for Obama transcends traditionally blue areas. The Plouffe strategy of targeting voters and adding new and infrequent voters who lean Obama into the mix is starting to take root in these states. Obama also appeared to regain his pre-convention footing in many blue battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania and Michigan. He may need to pay some attention to Minnesota, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, but it is highly unlikely that Obama could be leading nationally and not be ahead in those states. In short, Obama has regained his pre-convention positions, and has strengthened his hold on the red leaning states. Obama is imposing his will on the electoral map.
The ad campaign also turned up the notch in terms of its aggressiveness, and included targeting McCain on social security.
With all this good news, we need to remind ourselves that this is a long campaign and anything can turn on a dime. The focus of this week will be the bailout followed by the first debate between McCain and Obama in Mississippi.
The Bailout
Obama has now staked his ground on the financial crisis, and for the first time, appears to have fully coordinated his position with that of other key Democrats. He is more in line with comments that Hillary Clinton made a few days ago, and it is no surprise that he appears to have consulted with both Hillary and Bill Clinton. If the party remains unified on the bailout issue, the Democrats stand to benefit tremendously at the polls. Obama has taken a pragmatic populist position, and that can cut across all demographics. There will be no division of opinion among red states or blue states on this bailout as the Democratic position will appeal to many: demand accountability and transparency, no blank checks, no golden parachutes, require refinancing of mortgages to keep people in their homes. That is something that a coffee drinking truck driver and a latte sipping yoga instructor can get behind.
Though Obama did a good job of emphasizing his tax proposals on the stump, the campaign still needs to put out a simple, 30 second ad on his proposal. In addition, Obama needs to mention that seniors who receive social security who make under 100k (as a couple) or 50k (for individuals) will pay no taxes at all.
The Debate
As for the debate, though it may seem as an afterthought given the weight of the bailout package issue, this first debate (on foreign policy) presents McCain’s best opportunity to reframe the race. McCain loves to talk about foreign policy and often does so with commanding, emphatic bluster (even when he’s mixing up Sunni/Shia and basic geography). It is McCain’s best opportunity to change the subject for a day. Since McCain is considered (by way of polling) to have an advantage on foreign policy, a strong performance by Obama represents a great opportunity for Obama to gain a dominant advantage. Obama is a capable but not a great debater. Hillary Clinton bested him in most of the debates, but the competition pushed him to be a better candidate. Obama needs to do 3 things in the debate:
1. Get a 'Surge' Protector
I can’t take credit for that line. My dad came up with it. Though McCain gets higher marks on foreign policy, Americans actually agree with Obama more on foreign policy issues. This is because the GOP is the bully party, and when it comes to dealing with enemies in a dangerous world, Americans instinctively want a bully who is going to throw punches. However, on individual issues, Americans are far more thoughtful, and Obama can win in that context. Obama will be able to get his points across on all the key issues, and Americans will nod in agreement.
However, one issue that has bedeviled Obama is the surge. He has made a royal mess of his answers on this issue in interviews, taking too much care to avoid appearing to downplay the militarys achievements and showing too much reluctance to state in clear terms that the surge was not the first, second, third or even fourth key factor to explain the drop in violence in Iraq. The Sunni Awakening in Anbar, Moqtada Al Sadr’s cease fire, ethnic cleansing, and the British pullout in the South were all substantially more important factors than the military build-up. Furthermore, the surge has not brought about political reconciliation. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden have had better, clearer, more consistent answers on the subject. All Obama has to do is copy those answers, refer to Bob Woodward’s findings, and change the subject to getting out of Iraq. Most Americans don’t care about the surge. What they care about is getting out of Iraq.
2. Deliver Short, Sharp Answers –
Obama has to avoid long-winded, rambling answers. He cannot afford a performance like the Rick Warren forum.
3. Do Not Respect the Moderator –
He needs to get combative with the moderator as he did with Bill O’Reilly. If a moderator or interviewer comes back at Obama with a combative follow-up, he has a tendency to concede a point or two when it is completely unnecessary. He cannot show these tendencies.
4. Get Up in McCain’s Grill –
Americans want to see toughness. They want to see Obama take McCain on and hold his ground. Obama looks to me to be ready, if not eager to do it. If he brings the game he has shown on the campaign trail lately, he’ll win this debate.
We are entering the debate season on the heels of a major financial crisis. Obama has vaulted back into the lead and has a great opportunity to seize the advantage for the remainder of the campaign and force McCain to play according to Obama’s rules. Obama is an inconsistent campaigner over long campaigns but has a tremendous ability to rise to the occasion. I believe he will continue to impress as he has in the previous 10 days and as he did at the Democratic Convention.