Oh, nothing really, other than that this reflects all four dailies as of today, rather than a bunch from yesterday. R2K remains dead flat, just the most random of movements in individual sectors too minor to mention, other than net favorables, where Obama gained a couple and McCain lost a couple, but if one candidate is really +21 and the other is +1, then the race isn't this close, so skip it. Rasmussen has moved from a statistical tie to an absolute one, but again, big whoop, we're in a holding pattern until the debate or further bizarre comments. Gallup has another point move back into the undecided column, as Obama moves down from 48 to 47 with no increase in McCain's numbers. Could just be rounding. Obama has slipped three points in Gallup since he reached 50% on Saturday, but McCain hasn't gained over that time. I don't want to put too much faith in any single number, but I am curious as to why and/or how Obama has lost a point in each of the last three days. They don't discuss internals on a daily basis, so there's no way of figuring it out.
Diageo/Hotline Obama 47 McCain 43 (47-42)
Gallup Obama 47 McCain 44 (48-44)
R2K Obama 49 McCain 43 (49-43)
Rasmussen Obama 48-McCain 48 (48-47)
Diageo has a fractional increase for McCain with no decrease for Obama, pointing out that the economy continues to rise as the most significant issue in survey respondents' minds and that Obama's view of the origin of the financial crisis resonates more than McCain's. I've been on Wall Street for 20 years and I'm not sure I understand what McCain is saying, so I can see how it might not resonate. Srsly, though, could be in part an articulateness issue, if not The Vision Thing. At the same time, Diageo's polling on who would do a better job handling the economy has now moved into a virtual dead heat, so I'm probably spending too much time talkinga bout Diageo. Feh.
Rasmussen has some state polling out showing Obama still up 8 in Minnesota and the Senate race between incumbent Norm Coleman and intermittently comic Al Franken in a dead heat. Coleman isn't terribly popular in his state, and the campaign has become increasingly bitter. I've seen other commentary suggesting that Dean Barkley, the third party candidate with strong name recognition in the state (he served the remainder of the late Paul Wellstone's term after he was killed in a plane crash in 2002) was polling in double digits because Minnesotans were fed up with the level of discourse. Not so sure about that, but Rasmussen tends to discount third parties, so I'd take it with a shaker of salt. Could Franken get an SNL bump from Tina Fey's Sarah Palin shtick? After all he's good enough, he's smart enough and doggone it, people like him!
More state polling trending modestly Obama's way, particularly in Virginia and, surprisingly, North Carolina. If there's a kind of reverse Bradley Effect in the south, and African-American voters can come out in numbers proportionate to (or even greater than) white voters, some southern states with particularly high numbers of black residents such as North Carolina (21.7% black compared with 12.8% nationwide) could possibly be in play. McCain is worried; the GOP has allocated additional resources to what is ordinarily considered one of the reddest of the red--other than Jimmy Carter in 1976, NC has gone Republican since 1964. McCain continues to poll strong in PA and OH, though The Keystone State has a recent history of closing strong for the Democrat. It's also down to 21 electoral votes, the fewest it's had since James Madison won his first term. Well, I thought it was interesting.
Speaking of bizarre comments, I can't really post a Surrogate Quote Of The Day because it was a 45 minute conference call senior McCain staffers had to bitch out the press for doing what looks like quoting their candidate. Unfortunately, as reported on politico.com and a whole bunch of other places, the examples they tried to give of really really really bad things Obama and his people and his people's people have done were riddled with easily verifiable errors. After writing that, certain members of the fourth estate were treated to scathing private communications from the selfsame staffers, which they immediately made public. Duh. If you have an ear for comedy, the whole call is posted at McCain Staffers Press Conference. If you have an ear for how NOT to manipulate the press, same site. Jeez. Maybe attacking Russia (viz. yesterday's note) was a better idea after all--they might catch them on a weeklong Stoli bender. If you'd just like to read Ben Smith's take at politico, and it's worth a look, here 'tis: Ben Smith's take .
I've said before that we're in a holding pattern for the debates, and I'm sure people think that polls may move significantly after Friday night, but there's an interesting survey out of the University of Wisconsin ( Debate Effects Study ) suggesting that in the last 20 years, the impact has been no more than a few points. That being said, sometimes a few points can change the outcome of an election, so I wouldn't entirely discount the impact of a three point swing. I would suggest that what matters about the first debate is that, because it's the foreign policy debate, it will be Obama's chance to show that he can speak and act like a Commander In Chief. McCain will need to be very careful not looking like a petulant old guy if Obama is successful in this effort. If he's unsuccessful, McCain could gain significantly. It's all in Obama's hands this time round.
Some highly regarded conservative commentators still seem to be slowly inching away from the McCain reservation, though I'm sure if it turns out not to be a train wreck, they'll have inched right back again. No worries; it's what partisan commentators on all sides do. Just wash your hands after reading them and check for your cufflinks after shaking hands. Oh, and if you have them to dinner, I'd urge against the good silver.
Right. Fingers, paws, and fins crossed, I'm heading home from a month in LA tonight, which means nothing to any of us except that this email will be better formatted once I'm off my hotel's internet connection. Til tomorrow, then, and thanks for the kind words,
John
Herbert Hoover Quote Of The Day
The American people from bitter experience have a rightful fear that great business units might be used to dominate our industrial life and by illegal and unethical practices destroy equality of opportunity. (1928)