Until Friday night, repeat this ad nauseum to anyone you speak with regarding Friday night's debate. The conventional wisdom concerning Friday's debate has not yet been written due to the coverage of the economic crisis.
It will take a lot of work to pre-spin this debate, especially on the heels of the new ABC/Washington Post poll. The pressure could easily shift to Obama. Although, with McCain on the outs with everyone from Campbell Brown to George Will, the traditional media may be willing to bite. Thus, we need to put the ball in McCain's court. We need to phrase it as a McCain "do or die" moment.
Just so you all know, I don't necessarily believe that. There will still be 39 days left at the conclusion of the debate - anything can happen. Yet, if McCain loses his "advantage" on foreign policy then it will be tough for him to rebound. So, this must be the spin - "John McCain must win the debate."
Talking Point #1
Debates are not Barack Obama's strong suit. This is already conventional wisdom among most of the national press, so it should stick.
I happen to somewhat agree with the CW here. While I personally like BO's debate style - he actually thinks before he says something - the stammering and brief pauses comes off as indecisive and too intellectual, i.e. elitist (sad but true). But the substance of what he says, and its thoughtfulness, will be more in line with what people think.
Thus, the post-debate spin should be that Barack was thoughtful. Wouldn't it be nice to have a president that doesn't recklessly spew stupid comments?
Talking Point #2
Foreign Policy is John McCain's strong suit. This is also conventional wisdom and should stick.
John McCain is the experienced one, he's served on the Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees. He's met with several world leaders. John McCain is claiming his judgment is superior to Obama's because he got shot down and was a P.O.W. for five years. Well, it's time to find out.
Of course, talking about this in the context of why McCain is favored in - and must win - the debate gives the added bonus of talking about his Washington experience. Gotta love that. Although the topic is more to his liking, the foundation for his arguments almost have to include him quoting his years of experience in Washington. Don't they? Or will he strictly limit the relevant experience to his years in Hanoi?
Talking Point #3
Barack is not the front-runner.
Calm down. Take a breath. Yes, this ABC/WaPo poll is excellent news. The media will talk a lot about it, although not as much given the economic crisis (and rightly so). But they will probably start to say that "for the first time in the general election campaign, we have a front-runner."
Once a candidate becomes a front-runner, that is when the media starts to scrutinize and nit-pick more. It will also draw out more desperation in the McCain campaign. Since the status of front-runner is newly bestowed, it is unlikely anything will pop up before the debate. But if this becomes CW, then a tiny flub by Obama in the debate could become a big fat distraction (hell it could anyway).
Therefore, while I am sure many are excited, it is just one poll of many. Let's keep some perspective. One thing I have noticed is that way too many of you get way too low during bad polling and way to high on good polling. Lay off the pipe! That polling is strong stuff.
Talking Point #4
The economy is an important part of foreign affairs.
This doesn't set expectations as much as it allows Barack to talk about the economy (perceived as a strong issue for him). It also is smart politics because the economy is what is worrying a majority of Americans.
In addition, one can make a strong argument that the economy is extremely important in foreign policy. First, foreign banks want taxpayer bailout money. Second, the whole world has been affected by the economic crisis here. Third, gas prices and oil. Fourth, the stronger the dollar, the more economic leverage we have in the world.
This may also fluster McCain because he may not even be prepared for economic questions. Thus, it would increase the likelihood of a major McCain gaffe. So Barack... please weave it in somehow!
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So, until Friday, tell everyone that matters that John McCain is the heavy favorite and that if he doesn't win it will be a shock and it could permanently damage his chances of winning. Barack is not a strong debater, McCain's strong suit is foreign policy, and Barack is not a front-runner - it was only one poll. And for good measure argue that the economy should have some mentioning in the debate.
Also, I apologize for repeating the conventional wisdom. I hate it. I wish the press could think for itself, but it cannot. We simply don't have the time to change the prevailing CW. But as I said, we have a chance to define the CW surrounding Friday's debate. And I think it is most doable by quoting well established CW talking points.