Several months ago I predicted that Obama would defeat John McCain by 15 percentage points in the popular vote due to a wide ranging set of factors that are working in Obama's favor. If you asked me a month ago if I would stand by that number, my response would be an emphatic no. Today, 15 percentage points may be in the cards. If Obama holds firm and McCain actually backs out of this debate, I'll get my 15 points.
Now here are the key talking points to highlight just in case McCain does actually back out. Note, these are my talking points.
- John McCain's temper got to him again. He can't handle adversity and has the wrong temperament to be President. Even a Republican colleague has said that the thought of him being President brings a cold chill down his spine.
- John McCain has spent 26 years voting for the policies that helped cause the mess. You don't ask an arsonist to become fire chief.
- If John McCain was serious about economics, why did he spend Wednesday in New York going to a bunch of events?
- This is more of the same.
- This is a political stunt by John McCain.
If Obama holds firm (and I believe he will) and McCain actually doesn't show up in Mississippi, Obama takes a 15 point lead by the time the weekend is over. Here's why.
- Most Americans will recognize this as a political stunt.
- McCain has tried to make a big deal out of Obama not attending rigged town halls. That now backfires.
- McCain is trying to exploit an economic crisis caused by his party for his own campaign. Americans will hate him for it.
- If the real goal is to cancel the VP debate because Palin has still not mastered enough foreign policy cue cards beyond that of an average 3rd grader, then Americans will see through it.
We may be seeing the biggest meltdown in presidential political history in my lifetime. McCain's numbers may be in the 30s pretty soon.