According to an inside source, the Dems are expecting some sort of "fakeout" from McCain. A mavericky move that, like all recent Hail Marys, might just hit the Spin Cycle of the election one more time.
(NOTE: See updates below: there's confirmation that his approach to the legislation is clearly to upset the whole apple cart--crashing it down even before it comes to a vote.)
(FINAL NOTE: Wow. When I posted this diary I didn't really think it was making a prediction--just pointing out another insanely stupid direction McCain could take. And then he goes and does it.)
From Marc Ambinder:
My colleague Nora McAvalnah tells me that sources close to Senate Democratic leadership
now fear that McCain's true motivation for calling off his campaign and coming back to DC is simply to cast a "no" vote against the bailout, despite his private statements to the contrary. And it's a smart maneuver: nothing says "maverick," like voting against Bush and standing with the American public, who remain very wary of the proposal.
As he observes:
That's why they're scrambling to have a compromise in place before the 4:00 pm ET meeting with President Bush at the White House. If they do, then they only need worry about McCain's claiming credit for the sense of urgency, which would be inaccurate but hard to disprove. The fact is that, by 2pm yesterday, the House and Senate Democrats had settled their most important differences, the White House had caved on CEO pays, and the two sides were coming close to dealing with the bailout's oversight mechanism, its posture toward homeowners, and whether taxpayers would get ownership stakes in taken-over companies. Then McCain airdrops in --well, he's not actually in DC yet, so it was a virtual airdrop -- and it compresses the timeline even more.
Wouldn't put it past him. This has been fishy from the get-go. And if the original stunt (delaying the debate) didn't take, there's certainly room for another stunt like this.
Of course, no matter how McCain votes this is likely to shape up as the financial markets' equivalent of "the surge"--I.e., an expensive, unsustainable "fix" with modest results, thereby giving blame-cover to the Republicans during the next administration ("Heck, it was working until you guys came along and screwed it up!")
In a posting headlined "So it is a trap..." Christopher at Daily Shocker weighs in:
Political ploy. He’s building his case for voting no; if it doesn’t have his name on it, he’ll vote no. I don’t think the American public are buying his suspension decision, but will they buy his reasoning for voting no? Is it a strong platform to stand on, or is it just as transparent as the suspension.
This is shaping up to be a real “Cross of Gold” moment. It’s been telegraphed for a while now, so Obama’s camp is well aware of it. They’ve got to have some plan for this occurance, and the Democratic leadership will, as well.
God, is this half as sickening to anyone else as it is to me?
Oy. This is going to dizzy the press so much they just might lose their recently-gained bearings. And perhaps play it like a WWF Smackdown.
UPDATE I: Yup. McCain is NOT rolling up his sleeves and joining the existing legislative process. He's not doing anything more than pulling mavericky shenanigans. Here's the latest from Ambinder:
During the White House meeting, it appears that Sen. John McCain had an agenda. He brought up alternative proposals, surprising and angering Democrats. He did not, according to someone briefed on the meeting, provide specifics.
One the proposals -- favored by House Republicans -- would relax regulation and temporarily get rid of certain taxes in order to lure private industry into the market for these distressed assets.
Notably, McCain was the first to leave the White House meeting, stalking out through a back exit. The other legislators?
Before the White House meeting, Democrats and Senate Republicans were on track to get legislation to the floor by tomorrow. Democrats say that, at best, they hope for half of Republicans in the House to go along. At worst, the vote in the House becomes partisan and then Senate Republicans get shaky and then...
As of 6:30, as the Corner notes, Fox's Carl Cameron notes that the mood on Capitol Hill is "remarkably sour."
Now the question is: is he upsetting the apple cart in order to get his thumbprints on the resulting legislation? Or is he just stalling to keep the debates at bay?
Either way, dice are being rolled.
UPDATE II: Ambinder has another leak, from "someone in the know":
"Paulson and the White House need to talk to House Republicans to get them on board."
The implication here is that the Repubs are in open rebellion. Gosh, I wonder who's going to emerge as their Rebel Leader? Here, by the way, is the new McCain "alternative" that's being floated.
Chris Matthews and Pat Buchanan both just agreed on the air: McCain HAS to vote no.
UPDATE III: Obama, speaking now, just called the play:
"This demonstrates...if you inject presidential politics into delicate negotiations, it's not as helpful as it needs to be."
Of course, McCain's not trying to be helpful. I think we're witnessing an act of conservative cannibalism. McCain's gambling that the best way to distance himself from Bush is to take him off at the knees--literally undermine the last dregs of authority he might have.
Ain't gonna be pretty.
P.S.: Thanks for the hits on the Recommend button, folks. Another crazy day.
UPDATE IV: Of course, it's now perfectly clear that this is deliberate sabotage, for the purest political reasons.
Senator Dodd:
"What happened here, if you want an honest appraisal from me, is, we’ve been spending a lot of time--I’m tired, I,ve been almost seven straight days at this--trying to come up with a workout plan for our economy. A rescue plan. What this looked like to me was a rescue plan for John McCain for two hours, and it took us away from the work we’re trying to do today. Serious people trying to do serious work to come up with an answer."
I thought McCain was flailing. Turns out those motions are his attempts to nudge us down the rabbit hole.
UPDATE V:
The latest, from Nico Pitney and Sam Stein:
According to the source with knowledge of the White House gathering -- which featured both presidential candidates, congressional leaders and the President -- virtually ever key figure in the room, save McCain and GOP Sen. Richard Shelby, were in agreement over a revised version of Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's plan.
Towards the end, McCain finally spoke up, mentioning a counter-proposal that had been offered by some conservative House Republicans, which would suspend the capital gains tax for two years and provide tax incentives to encourage firms that buy up bad debt. McCain did not discuss specifics of the plan, though, and was non-committal about supporting it.
Paulson, however, argued directly against the conservative proposal. "He said that he did not think it would work," according to the source. At another point in the meeting, President Bush chimed in, "If money isn't loosened, this sucker could go down" -- and by sucker he meant economy.
Playing games. With these astronomical stakes.
Sabotage. That's the only word, ladies and gentlemen. If a Democrat was pulling this, shouts of Treason would ring toward heaven.