As of second-quarter filings (June 30), the Democratic candidate in South Carolina's Senate race has raised a grand total of $17,105.
Out of this, he has spent all of $15,202.
He is a Democratic candidate who supported Ron Paul. He is running to the right of Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham on immigration. He has railed against his own party for having the temerity to criticize Sarah Palin.
In his defense, he also opposes the bailout and the Iraq war.
And he is within single digits of incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (No trend lines)
Graham (R) 51
Conley (D) 42
In case you think this is a fluke outlier, Rasmussen had the results as 50-41 for Graham, the same single-digit margin as this poll shows.
Graham is evidently vulnerable. Conley is in contention through no fault of his own, and we can only speculate what might have been if an actual Democrat - not necessarily a true progressive, but a generic, moderately conservative but economically populist Southern Democrat - had been in this race.
We should have had a real Democrat here. Even if it wasn't a top-tier candidate like State Education Superintendent Jim Rex, or 2006 Lieutenant Governor nominee Robert Barber, we should have had a real Democrat. It's clear Lindsey Graham isn't invincible, and this is precisely the year to take on a long-shot race like this.
Alas, we have a winnable race...and "Democrat" Bob Conley supposedly fighting on our behalf.
Full poll details below the fold. This poll shows McCain leading Obama 52-39 in South Carolina. That's about midway between Rasmussen (51-45, McCain), and SurveyUSA (58-39 McCain).
SOUTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – SEPTEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 South Carolina Poll was conducted from September 22 through September 24, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 216 (36%)
Republicans 252 (42%)
Independents/Other 132 (22%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 192 (32%)
45-59 168 (28%)
60+ 132 (22%)
White 438 (73%)
Black 151 (25%)
Other 11 (2%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Conley? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 33% 23% 11% 21%
MEN 10% 30% 26% 14% 20%
WOMEN 14% 36% 20% 8% 22%
DEMOCRATS 20% 47% 10% 4% 19%
REPUBLICANS 6% 23% 36% 18% 17%
INDEPENDENTS 10% 30% 21% 9% 30%
18-29 15% 37% 19% 7% 22%
30-44 11% 31% 25% 12% 21%
45-59 13% 34% 22% 10% 21%
60+ 10% 30% 26% 14% 20%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lindsey Graham? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 39% 26% 13% 8%
MEN 17% 43% 24% 12% 4%
WOMEN 11% 35% 28% 14% 12%
DEMOCRATS 6% 22% 40% 25% 7%
REPUBLICANS 23% 54% 15% 4% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 12% 38% 24% 11% 15%
18-29 11% 36% 29% 17% 7%
30-44 15% 40% 24% 11% 10%
45-59 14% 38% 27% 14% 7%
60+ 16% 42% 23% 10% 9%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Bob Conley the Democrat or Lindsey Graham the Republican?
GRAHAM CONLEY OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 51% 42% 1% 6%
MEN 55% 39% 1% 5%
WOMEN 47% 45% 1% 7%
DEMOCRATS 12% 83% - 5%
REPUBLICANS 85% 7% 1% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 50% 42% 2% 6%
WHITE 67% 29% 1% 3%
BLACK 4% 80% - 16%
18-29 47% 45% 1% 7%
30-44 52% 41% 2% 5%
45-59 49% 43% 1% 7%
60+ 54% 39% - 7%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 54% 39% 2% 5%
MEN 59% 36% 3% 2%
WOMEN 49% 42% 1% 8%
DEMOCRATS 14% 79% 3% 4%
REPUBLICANS 88% 5% 1% 6%
OTHER 55% 38% 3% 4%
WHITE 71% 23% 2% 4%
BLACK 4% 86% - 10%
18-29 50% 43% 2% 5%
30-44 56% 38% 2% 4%
45-59 53% 40% 2% 5%
60+ 58% 35% 1% 6%