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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Merkley (D) 45
Smith (R) 40

A new SUSA poll out today reinforces this one, with Merkley with a slim lead, 44-42. The significance of that poll, however, is that it shows Merkley gaining seven points and Smith losing seven since their previous poll, conducted in early August.

The momentum is definitely on Merkley's side. Independents have definitely not been swayed by Smith's "I'm really a moderate" shtick and continue to give him high unfavorables (see the crosstabs below the fold). He also hasn't managed to convince many Democrats who got used to the idea that you could vote for a Republican back in the days of Tom McCall and Mark Hatfield.

The news on the Presidential front is very good: Obama leads McCain 53-39, with just 3 percent undecided.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

OREGON POLL RESULTS – SEPTEMBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Oregon Poll was conducted from September 22 through September 24, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  287 (48%)
Women                313 (52%)

Democrats            258 (43%)
Republicans          216 (36%)
Independents/Other   126 (21%)

18-29                115 (19%)
30-44                186 (31%)
45-59                175 (29%)
60+                  124 (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeff Merkley? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         31%         29%         11%         17%

MEN                 10%         28%         33%         13%         16%
WOMEN               14%         34%         25%          9%         18%

DEMOCRATS           18%         44%         17%          5%         16%
REPUBLICANS          5%         16%         43%         20%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        13%         31%         28%          7%         21%

18-29               15%         34%         25%          7%         19%
30-44               13%         32%         28%         11%         16%
45-59               11%         30%         31%         12%         16%
60+                  9%         27%         33%         14%         17%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gordon Smith? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         31%         32%         13%         14%

MEN                 11%         34%         31%         13%         11%
WOMEN                9%         28%         33%         13%         17%

DEMOCRATS            5%         22%         41%         19%         13%
REPUBLICANS         18%         43%         21%          6%         12%
INDEPENDENTS         8%         28%         33%         13%         18%

18-29                8%         27%         36%         15%         14%
30-44                9%         30%         32%         14%         15%
45-59               11%         32%         31%         12%         14%
60+                 12%         34%         29%         11%         14%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Jeff Merkley the Democrat or Gordon Smith the Republican?

                   MERKLEY     SMITH       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         40%          6%          9%

MEN                 42%         42%          9%          7%
WOMEN               48%         38%          3%         11%

DEMOCRATS           79%          6%          4%         11%
REPUBLICANS          6%         81%          5%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        43%         41%         11%          5%

18-29               48%         36%          5%         11%
30-44               46%         39%          7%          8%
45-59               44%         41%          7%          8%
60+                 42%         43%          6%          9%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         39%          5%          3%

MEN                 48%         44%          7%          1%
WOMEN               58%         34%          3%          5%

DEMOCRATS           85%          8%          3%          4%
REPUBLICANS         14%         77%          6%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        55%         37%          7%          1%

18-29               59%         34%          3%          4%
30-44               54%         38%          6%          2%
45-59               50%         42%          6%          2%
60+                 48%         43%          5%          4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Sep 25, 2008 at 05:45 PM PDT.

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