Only the most optimistic scenarios have Obama with much of a chance to win Mississippi (although he has far more of a chance than in my home state of TN).
But what happens in that Mississippi if for some reason, McCain actually does the unthinkable and skips tonight's debate?
From an anecodatal survey of folks around my Memphis, TN lawfirm, including several Ole Miss grads, it would not be pretty. Ole Miss has put a LOT of money ($5.5 million) into readying for this debate, and the backlash from a lot of folks with influence and resources in Mississippi if McCain were to skip this would be hard to measure. It should also not be underestimated.
Where there would potentially be an impact, in my opinion, beyond making the state potentially one that Obama loses by only single digits, would be on the senatorial race.
If McCain blows this off, the ramifications for the Wicker/Musgrove race are perhaps sizable. Enough anger may be stoked at McCain that would potentially give fresh wind to Musgrove's push to steal the seat from the Wicker.
The very latest polling date from there was the Kos/Research 2000 date set from 9/18, and had the race at only a 5 point lead for Wicker. The only two other polls from there in the last few months are Ras polls and those showed a Wicker 9 point lead.
The pollster.com composite:
http://www.pollster.com/...
So, a senator race that is in the single digits right now, with a lot of pre-anger in place should McCain blow this thing off. IF McCain does the insane thing and does not show up, my seat-of-the-pants prediction? The next polling on this race would show it within a point or two, if not tied. People would be that pissed in Oxford, influential people, and I am guessing their anger would be taken out, in no small measure, on Wicker. Of all the people on the face of this planet who want McCain to show up, I am betting Roger Wicker is at the top of that list.